2026-07-23
Every probability published for this slate, beside what actually happened. Published before first pitch, graded that night, never edited. Rows that show a void carry the reason; they stay on the record rather than being removed.
Strikeouts
24 graded, 3 voided| Pitcher | Team | Opp | Line | P(over) | K | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | AZ | STL | 4.5 | 39% | 1 | under | 0.153 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | AZ | STL | 5.5 | 25% | 1 | under | 0.064 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | AZ | STL | 6.5 | 16% | 1 | under | 0.026 |
| Chris Sale | ATL | SD | 4.5 | 57% | 11 | over | 0.188 |
| Chris Sale | ATL | SD | 5.5 | 41% | 11 | over | 0.349 |
| Chris Sale | ATL | SD | 6.5 | 27% | 11 | over | 0.528 |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | MIN | 4.5 | 69% | 11 | over | 0.095 |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | MIN | 5.5 | 61% | 11 | over | 0.151 |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | MIN | 6.5 | 46% | 11 | over | 0.294 |
| Kyle Hart | SD | ATL | 4.5 | 36% | — | voided opener | — |
| Kyle Hart | SD | ATL | 5.5 | 19% | — | voided opener | — |
| Kyle Hart | SD | ATL | 6.5 | 12% | — | voided opener | — |
| Michael McGreevy | STL | AZ | 4.5 | 41% | 3 | under | 0.165 |
| Michael McGreevy | STL | AZ | 5.5 | 26% | 3 | under | 0.067 |
| Michael McGreevy | STL | AZ | 6.5 | 15% | 3 | under | 0.022 |
| Randy Dobnak | KC | DET | 4.5 | 57% | 3 | under | 0.327 |
| Randy Dobnak | KC | DET | 5.5 | 36% | 3 | under | 0.131 |
| Randy Dobnak | KC | DET | 6.5 | 19% | 3 | under | 0.035 |
| Shane Bieber | TOR | TB | 4.5 | 44% | 3 | under | 0.191 |
| Shane Bieber | TOR | TB | 5.5 | 28% | 3 | under | 0.079 |
| Shane Bieber | TOR | TB | 6.5 | 14% | 3 | under | 0.019 |
| Taj Bradley | MIN | CLE | 4.5 | 73% | 5 | over | 0.075 |
| Taj Bradley | MIN | CLE | 5.5 | 54% | 5 | under | 0.287 |
| Taj Bradley | MIN | CLE | 6.5 | 37% | 5 | under | 0.137 |
| Troy Melton | DET | KC | 4.5 | 62% | 5 | over | 0.141 |
| Troy Melton | DET | KC | 5.5 | 49% | 5 | under | 0.240 |
| Troy Melton | DET | KC | 6.5 | 31% | 5 | under | 0.095 |
Hits
158 graded, 20 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.156 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.049 |
| Dominic Smith | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.156 |
| Dominic Smith | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.050 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 67% | 1 | over | 0.108 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 26% | 1 | under | 0.068 |
| Jim Jarvis | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.372 |
| Jim Jarvis | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.056 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 69% | 0 | under | 0.481 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.055 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 66% | 1 | over | 0.113 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 27% | 1 | under | 0.071 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 69% | 2 | over | 0.097 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 25% | 2 | over | 0.568 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 55% | 1 | over | 0.203 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 18% | 1 | under | 0.033 |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 68% | 2 | over | 0.101 |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | Kyle Hart | 1.5 | 26% | 2 | over | 0.550 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 58% | 3 | over | 0.178 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 19% | 3 | over | 0.661 |
| Corbin Carroll | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Corbin Carroll | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 26% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Gabriel Moreno | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 70% | 3 | over | 0.092 |
| Gabriel Moreno | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 28% | 3 | over | 0.515 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 68% | 0 | under | 0.464 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.058 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 67% | 3 | over | 0.109 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 27% | 3 | over | 0.535 |
| Ketel Marte | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 68% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ketel Marte | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 29% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Max Kepler | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 64% | 0 | under | 0.410 |
| Max Kepler | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.054 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.319 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.039 |
| Tim Tawa | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.136 |
| Tim Tawa | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.048 |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.421 |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.055 |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 68% | 0 | under | 0.459 |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 27% | 0 | under | 0.071 |
| José Ramírez | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.375 |
| José Ramírez | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.053 |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 52% | 0 | under | 0.268 |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 51% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 14% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Petey Halpin | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.313 |
| Petey Halpin | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Rhys Hoskins | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 53% | 0 | under | 0.280 |
| Rhys Hoskins | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 63% | 2 | over | 0.140 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 20% | 2 | over | 0.634 |
| Travis Bazzana | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.383 |
| Travis Bazzana | CLE | Taj Bradley | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.045 |
| Colt Keith | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 66% | 0 | under | 0.430 |
| Colt Keith | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.047 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 67% | 2 | over | 0.109 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 27% | 2 | over | 0.529 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 70% | 1 | over | 0.092 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 27% | 1 | under | 0.071 |
| James Outman | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 59% | 1 | over | 0.167 |
| James Outman | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 20% | 1 | under | 0.039 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.151 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 18% | 1 | under | 0.033 |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 71% | 1 | over | 0.083 |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 30% | 1 | under | 0.088 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 68% | 1 | over | 0.100 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 26% | 1 | under | 0.070 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 64% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 21% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Zach McKinstry | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 61% | 2 | over | 0.153 |
| Zach McKinstry | DET | Randy Dobnak | 1.5 | 21% | 2 | over | 0.623 |
| Carter Jensen | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 64% | 1 | over | 0.130 |
| Carter Jensen | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.046 |
| Isaac Collins | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 56% | 1 | over | 0.194 |
| Isaac Collins | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 18% | 1 | under | 0.034 |
| Josh Rojas | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 54% | 2 | over | 0.208 |
| Josh Rojas | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 17% | 2 | over | 0.691 |
| Lane Thomas | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.384 |
| Lane Thomas | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.049 |
| Michael Massey | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 62% | 2 | over | 0.141 |
| Michael Massey | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 23% | 2 | over | 0.589 |
| Nick Loftin | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.145 |
| Nick Loftin | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.044 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 59% | 0 | under | 0.352 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.033 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 62% | 2 | over | 0.141 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Troy Melton | 1.5 | 22% | 2 | over | 0.611 |
| Austin Martin | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.334 |
| Austin Martin | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.401 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.058 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 60% | 1 | over | 0.162 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.054 |
| Josh Bell | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 64% | 0 | under | 0.408 |
| Josh Bell | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.059 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 58% | 1 | over | 0.177 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.044 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 59% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 20% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 54% | 0 | under | 0.293 |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.032 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.148 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 24% | 1 | under | 0.057 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 54% | 0 | under | 0.294 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Gavin Williams | 1.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.030 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 72% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 25% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 51% | 1 | over | 0.241 |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 17% | 1 | under | 0.029 |
| Gavin Sheets | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 51% | 1 | over | 0.239 |
| Gavin Sheets | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.036 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 57% | 1 | over | 0.182 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.035 |
| Jase Bowen | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 50% | 0 | under | 0.254 |
| Jase Bowen | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.020 |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 60% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 21% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Manny Machado | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 63% | 2 | over | 0.138 |
| Manny Machado | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 20% | 2 | over | 0.642 |
| Ty France | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 65% | 1 | over | 0.124 |
| Ty France | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.054 |
| Xander Bogaerts | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.386 |
| Xander Bogaerts | SD | Chris Sale | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.040 |
| Alec Burleson | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Alec Burleson | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 27% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.326 |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| JJ Wetherholt | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 68% | 2 | over | 0.103 |
| JJ Wetherholt | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 27% | 2 | over | 0.528 |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 50% | 1 | over | 0.246 |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 11% | 1 | under | 0.012 |
| Jordan Walker | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 66% | 2 | over | 0.115 |
| Jordan Walker | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 27% | 2 | over | 0.532 |
| José Fermín | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.155 |
| José Fermín | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.045 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 64% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 25% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Masyn Winn | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 62% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Masyn Winn | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 22% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Nathan Church | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 56% | 1 | over | 0.195 |
| Nathan Church | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 1.5 | 17% | 1 | under | 0.030 |
| Ben Williamson | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 59% | 0 | under | 0.350 |
| Ben Williamson | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.423 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 28% | 0 | under | 0.079 |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 55% | 1 | over | 0.198 |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 16% | 1 | under | 0.024 |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.428 |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 28% | 0 | under | 0.076 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.135 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 24% | 1 | under | 0.059 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 70% | 0 | under | 0.486 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 26% | 0 | under | 0.070 |
| Richie Palacios | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.313 |
| Richie Palacios | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.030 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.332 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.031 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 69% | 1 | over | 0.094 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Shane Bieber | 1.5 | 26% | 1 | under | 0.070 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.150 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.055 |
| Davis Schneider | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 54% | 0 | under | 0.287 |
| Davis Schneider | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.028 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 66% | 1 | over | 0.112 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 26% | 1 | under | 0.067 |
| George Springer | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 66% | 2 | over | 0.119 |
| George Springer | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 26% | 2 | over | 0.549 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.417 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.054 |
| Luis Urías | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.327 |
| Luis Urías | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.039 |
| Myles Straw | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 59% | 0 | under | 0.346 |
| Myles Straw | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.036 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 70% | 2 | over | 0.090 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 25% | 2 | over | 0.561 |
| Yohendrick Piñango | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 59% | 1 | over | 0.169 |
| Yohendrick Piñango | TOR | Casey Legumina | 1.5 | 20% | 1 | under | 0.038 |
Home runs
79 graded, 10 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Dominic Smith | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 7% | 1 | over | 0.874 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 16% | 1 | over | 0.706 |
| Jim Jarvis | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.028 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 14% | 1 | over | 0.738 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | Kyle Hart | 0.5 | 14% | 1 | over | 0.732 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Corbin Carroll | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 14% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Gabriel Moreno | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Ketel Marte | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 15% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Max Kepler | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Tim Tawa | AZ | Michael McGreevy | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.015 |
| José Ramírez | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 13% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Petey Halpin | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Rhys Hoskins | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.020 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Travis Bazzana | CLE | Taj Bradley | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.013 |
| Colt Keith | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.026 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.028 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| James Outman | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 15% | 1 | over | 0.726 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 17% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Zach McKinstry | DET | Randy Dobnak | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Carter Jensen | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Isaac Collins | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 10% | 1 | over | 0.807 |
| Josh Rojas | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Lane Thomas | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.020 |
| Michael Massey | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Nick Loftin | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Troy Melton | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Austin Martin | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.019 |
| Josh Bell | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.025 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 8% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Gavin Williams | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 16% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Freddy Fermin | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Gavin Sheets | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Jase Bowen | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 10% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Manny Machado | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.027 |
| Ty France | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 17% | 1 | over | 0.682 |
| Xander Bogaerts | SD | Chris Sale | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Alec Burleson | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 14% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| JJ Wetherholt | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.024 |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Jordan Walker | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| José Fermín | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 12% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Masyn Winn | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 8% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Nathan Church | STL | Brandon Pfaadt | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Ben Williamson | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.037 |
| Richie Palacios | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.026 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Shane Bieber | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Davis Schneider | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| George Springer | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.019 |
| Luis Urías | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.013 |
| Myles Straw | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| Yohendrick Piñango | TOR | Casey Legumina | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
Run totals
5 graded| Game | Mean | P(over 8.5) | Actual | CRPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at TOR | 9.28 | 54% | 4 | 3.070 |
| AZ at STL | 8.97 | 50% | 16 | 4.942 |
| KC at DET | 8.96 | 51% | 7 | 1.226 |
| MIN at CLE | 8.70 | 48% | 4 | 2.638 |
| SD at ATL | 8.95 | 50% | 11 | 1.584 |
Brier is the squared error of a probability (0 perfect, 0.25 a coin flip, 1 confidently wrong). Totals are scored by CRPS over the whole distribution instead, so the two are not comparable. Machine-readable versions of everything here are in the raw artifacts.