The public, graded record.

Player-level probabilities for every MLB slate: pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, batter home runs. Published before first pitch, graded against Statcast that night, never edited. The goal is calibration, not beating the market. When this engine says 30%, it should happen about 30% of the time, and this page is the test. Probabilities, not picks. Not betting advice.

3graded markets

380predictions published for 2026-07-19

817graded, all-time

286voided, shown not deleted

3days live

Void rules, stated in advance: published late voids. Postponed voids. A pitcher who does not start, or a batter outside the starting nine, voids. Voids stay on the record.

Strikeout board

0.209 running Brier over 159 line-grades

One distribution per probable starter. P(over) at the standard lines derives from the full strip, never estimated separately. Since 7/18, each starter publishes when the opposing lineup posts, so the lineup-aware feature sees the nine he actually faces; if a lineup still is not posted 60 minutes before first pitch, the prediction publishes from a roster-filtered projection instead. The archive records which (opp_nine_source).

Published 2026-07-19 16:02:18 UTC. Graded tonight.

Pitcher	Matchup	First pitch	E[K]	P(K>4.5)	P(K>5.5)	P(K>6.5)
Sean Burke	CWS vs TOR	12:15 PM ET	5.4	66%	47%	29%
Trey Yesavage	TOR vs CWS	12:15 PM ET	4.8	56%	39%	20%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD vs NYY	12:35 PM ET	6.0	73%	56%	35%
Cam Schlittler	NYY vs LAD	12:35 PM ET	6.0	73%	61%	50%
Grant Holmes	ATL vs TEX	1:35 PM ET	4.5	47%	29%	17%
Sonny Gray	BOS vs TB	1:35 PM ET	5.0	54%	42%	23%
Nolan McLean	NYM vs PHI	1:35 PM ET	5.6	69%	50%	36%
Alan Rangel	PHI vs NYM	1:35 PM ET	4.9	57%	39%	28%
Shane McClanahan	TB vs BOS	1:35 PM ET	4.9	54%	37%	19%
Nathan Eovaldi	TEX vs ATL	1:35 PM ET	6.2	74%	62%	44%
Joey Cantillo	CLE vs PIT	1:40 PM ET	5.8	66%	55%	40%
Paul Skenes	PIT vs CLE	1:40 PM ET	6.0	70%	59%	43%
Hunter Brown	HOU vs BAL	2:10 PM ET	5.4	65%	47%	27%
Noah Cameron	KC vs SD	2:10 PM ET	5.1	62%	44%	22%
Eury Pérez	MIA vs MIL	2:10 PM ET	5.5	65%	50%	33%
Robert Gasser	MIL vs MIA	2:10 PM ET	4.9	56%	39%	23%
Germán Márquez	SD vs KC	2:10 PM ET	4.2	41%	24%	13%
Shota Imanaga	CHC vs MIN	2:20 PM ET	5.6	67%	49%	35%
Zebby Matthews	MIN vs CHC	2:20 PM ET	5.0	59%	39%	19%
Ryan Feltner	COL vs CIN	3:10 PM ET	4.9	56%	35%	22%

Hits board

0.197 running Brier over 764 grades

A full hits distribution per starting batter against the announced starter. Since 7/18, batter predictions publish ONLY from posted starting lineups, as each team's card posts (typically 1 to 4 hours pre-game) — never from projections. A side whose lineup never posts pre-game gets no predictions that day, and voids now mean genuine post-posting changes. The 7/17 rows were projection-based with ~24% scratch voids, as declared at the time; both eras are labeled in the archive (lineup_source).

Published 2026-07-19 13:02:37 UTC. Graded tonight.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays 12:15 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	vs Sean Burke	69%	25%
Nathan Lukes	TOR	vs Sean Burke	66%	25%
Sam Antonacci	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	66%	25%
Miguel Vargas	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	65%	26%
Ernie Clement	TOR	vs Sean Burke	64%	26%
Tristan Peters	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	62%	22%
Brandon Valenzuela	TOR	vs Sean Burke	62%	22%
Andrew Benintendi	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	62%	22%
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	vs Sean Burke	61%	21%
Braden Montgomery	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	60%	20%
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	59%	19%
Daulton Varsho	TOR	vs Sean Burke	58%	19%
Colson Montgomery	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	58%	20%
Randal Grichuk	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	55%	16%
Jonatan Clase	TOR	vs Sean Burke	55%	19%
Andrés Giménez	TOR	vs Sean Burke	53%	17%
Sean Keys	TOR	vs Sean Burke	50%	15%
Drew Romo	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	46%	14%

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees 12:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Andy Pages	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	67%	24%
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	66%	23%
Cody Bellinger	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	66%	23%
Ben Rice	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	65%	25%
Mookie Betts	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	64%	23%
Trent Grisham	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	62%	22%
Tommy Edman	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	62%	23%
Kyle Tucker	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	62%	21%
Freddie Freeman	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	61%	24%
Jasson Domínguez	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	61%	21%
Max Muncy	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	59%	19%
Ryan McMahon	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	57%	17%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	56%	18%
Dalton Rushing	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	56%	19%
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	56%	17%
Max Schuemann	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	55%	15%
Anthony Volpe	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	54%	17%
Ali Sánchez	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	49%	14%

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Juan Soto	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	69%	28%
A.J. Ewing	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	67%	25%
Bo Bichette	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	66%	25%
Carson Benge	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	65%	25%
Brandon Marsh	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	65%	26%
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	65%	24%
Trea Turner	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	64%	26%
Francisco Lindor	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	64%	22%
Alec Bohm	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	63%	22%
Bryce Harper	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	63%	22%
Bryson Stott	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	62%	23%
Brett Baty	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	61%	20%
Jared Young	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	61%	21%
Justin Crawford	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	60%	21%
Marcus Semien	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	59%	19%
J.T. Realmuto	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	58%	18%
Luis Torrens	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	56%	18%
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	50%	13%

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	69%	28%
Yandy Díaz	TB	vs Sonny Gray	68%	25%
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	67%	26%
Junior Caminero	TB	vs Sonny Gray	66%	24%
Jarren Duran	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	65%	22%
Jonathan Aranda	TB	vs Sonny Gray	64%	25%
Andruw Monasterio	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	64%	23%
Caleb Durbin	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	63%	22%
Chandler Simpson	TB	vs Sonny Gray	63%	23%
Willson Contreras	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	62%	25%
Connor Wong	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	60%	20%
Romy Gonzalez	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	59%	20%
Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	vs Sonny Gray	58%	18%
Richie Palacios	TB	vs Sonny Gray	57%	17%
Cedric Mullins	TB	vs Sonny Gray	56%	17%
Taylor Walls	TB	vs Sonny Gray	55%	17%
Hunter Feduccia	TB	vs Sonny Gray	54%	16%
Jahmai Jones	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	50%	14%

Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Ozzie Albies	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	71%	27%
Matt Olson	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	69%	26%
Wyatt Langford	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	69%	29%
Josh Jung	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	67%	28%
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	67%	24%
Michael Harris II	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	66%	27%
Drake Baldwin	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	66%	25%
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	66%	24%
Ezequiel Duran	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	64%	23%
Brewer Hicklen	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	62%	16%
Jake Burger	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	62%	23%
Joc Pederson	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	60%	20%
Austin Riley	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	60%	20%
Kyle Higashioka	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	59%	19%
Jim Jarvis	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	59%	20%
Evan Carter	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	59%	19%
Dominic Smith	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	59%	20%
Nicky Lopez	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	53%	18%

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians 1:40 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	67%	25%
Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	66%	26%
Chase DeLauter	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	64%	24%
Nick Gonzales	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	64%	26%
Jake Mangum	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	63%	25%
Brayan Rocchio	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	62%	21%
Jared Triolo	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	61%	21%
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	60%	23%
Travis Bazzana	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	59%	20%
Jacob Gonzalez	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	58%	20%
Steven Kwan	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	56%	20%
Henry Davis	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	54%	16%
Kahlil Watson	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	52%	15%
Kyle Manzardo	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	52%	14%
Billy Cook	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	51%	13%
Gabriel Arias	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	50%	12%
Patrick Bailey	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	50%	13%
Petey Halpin	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	49%	14%

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers 2:10 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Liam Hicks	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	70%	30%
Brice Turang	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	69%	25%
Xavier Edwards	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	69%	27%
Jackson Chourio	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	69%	27%
Christian Yelich	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	65%	24%
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	64%	23%
Javier Sanoja	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	63%	30%
Jake Bauers	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	62%	23%
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	62%	21%
Jakob Marsee	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	61%	21%
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	60%	21%
Joey Ortiz	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	59%	19%
Leo Jiménez	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	59%	18%
Kyle Stowers	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	57%	21%
Gary Sánchez	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	57%	17%
Esteury Ruiz	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	55%	17%
Griffin Conine	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	55%	18%
Braden Shewmake	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	54%	13%

San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals 2:10 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Jac Caglianone	KC	vs Germán Márquez	68%	29%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	vs Noah Cameron	68%	27%
Xander Bogaerts	SD	vs Noah Cameron	67%	21%
Ty France	SD	vs Noah Cameron	66%	26%
Carter Jensen	KC	vs Germán Márquez	66%	25%
Lane Thomas	KC	vs Germán Márquez	65%	24%
Manny Machado	SD	vs Noah Cameron	64%	23%
Jackson Merrill	SD	vs Noah Cameron	64%	24%
Miguel Andujar	SD	vs Noah Cameron	63%	22%
Salvador Perez	KC	vs Germán Márquez	63%	20%
Luis Rengifo	SD	vs Noah Cameron	62%	23%
Nick Loftin	KC	vs Germán Márquez	62%	22%
Isaac Collins	KC	vs Germán Márquez	61%	20%
Tyler Tolbert	KC	vs Germán Márquez	58%	20%
Josh Rojas	KC	vs Germán Márquez	58%	18%
Luke Maile	KC	vs Germán Márquez	53%	15%
Luis Campusano	SD	vs Noah Cameron	52%	18%
Jase Bowen	SD	vs Noah Cameron	51%	16%

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros 2:10 PM ET, 9 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Taylor Ward	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	69%	24%
Gunnar Henderson	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	69%	25%
Pete Alonso	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	68%	25%
Samuel Basallo	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	62%	22%
Leody Taveras	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	58%	19%
Colton Cowser	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	54%	15%
Jackson Holliday	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	54%	14%
Dylan Beavers	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	53%	15%
Coby Mayo	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	51%	14%

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	70%	26%
Nico Hoerner	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	68%	23%
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	68%	26%
Alex Bregman	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	67%	26%
Michael Busch	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	65%	24%
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	64%	22%
Ian Happ	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	64%	21%
Carson Kelly	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	64%	25%
Josh Bell	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	63%	25%
Brooks Lee	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	63%	25%
Kody Clemens	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	63%	23%
Dansby Swanson	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	62%	17%
Austin Martin	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	62%	22%
Luke Keaschall	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	61%	22%
Pedro Ramírez	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	61%	22%
Victor Caratini	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	60%	20%
Royce Lewis	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	60%	20%
Ryan Kreidler	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	59%	18%

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies 3:10 PM ET, 9 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ hit)	P(2+ hits)
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	69%	30%
Sal Stewart	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	68%	27%
Spencer Steer	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	67%	24%
JJ Bleday	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	65%	25%
Nathaniel Lowe	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	64%	25%
Tyler Stephenson	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	63%	21%
Dane Myers	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	62%	20%
Eugenio Suárez	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	60%	21%
TJ Friedl	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	54%	18%

Home run board

0.102 running Brier over 382 grades

P(1+ home run) per starting batter, the classic low-base-rate market. About 13% of starters homer on a given night, so probabilities live in the 2 to 30% range, exactly where calibration is hardest to fake. Posted lineups only since 7/18, published as they post. Park HR context is a model feature, built from our own data and strictly prior. Probability bars on this board are drawn on a 0 to 40% scale for legibility; the printed number is the truth.

Published 2026-07-19 13:03:19 UTC. Graded tonight.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays 12:15 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Miguel Vargas	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	19%
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	vs Sean Burke	18%
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	16%
Colson Montgomery	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	15%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	vs Sean Burke	14%
Andrew Benintendi	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	14%
Brandon Valenzuela	TOR	vs Sean Burke	13%
Randal Grichuk	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	13%
Sam Antonacci	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	12%
Tristan Peters	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	11%
Daulton Varsho	TOR	vs Sean Burke	11%
Drew Romo	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	10%
Jonatan Clase	TOR	vs Sean Burke	9%
Nathan Lukes	TOR	vs Sean Burke	8%
Braden Montgomery	CWS	vs Trey Yesavage	8%
Sean Keys	TOR	vs Sean Burke	7%
Ernie Clement	TOR	vs Sean Burke	7%
Andrés Giménez	TOR	vs Sean Burke	6%

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees 12:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Ben Rice	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	19%
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	18%
Ryan McMahon	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	16%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	15%
Trent Grisham	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	14%
Mookie Betts	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	14%
Dalton Rushing	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	13%
Freddie Freeman	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	13%
Jasson Domínguez	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	13%
Andy Pages	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	13%
Max Muncy	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	13%
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	12%
Max Schuemann	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	11%
Tommy Edman	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	10%
Kyle Tucker	LAD	vs Cam Schlittler	10%
Anthony Volpe	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	9%
Cody Bellinger	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	9%
Ali Sánchez	NYY	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5%

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	23%
Juan Soto	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	21%
Brandon Marsh	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	20%
Francisco Lindor	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	16%
Marcus Semien	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	16%
Trea Turner	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	15%
A.J. Ewing	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	15%
Brett Baty	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	14%
Bryce Harper	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	14%
Alec Bohm	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	14%
Jared Young	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	13%
Bo Bichette	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	13%
Carson Benge	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	12%
J.T. Realmuto	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	11%
Bryson Stott	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	10%
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	10%
Luis Torrens	NYM	vs Alan Rangel	8%
Justin Crawford	PHI	vs Nolan McLean	6%

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	19%
Willson Contreras	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	19%
Junior Caminero	TB	vs Sonny Gray	18%
Jonathan Aranda	TB	vs Sonny Gray	12%
Andruw Monasterio	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	12%
Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	vs Sonny Gray	11%
Jarren Duran	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	11%
Cedric Mullins	TB	vs Sonny Gray	10%
Yandy Díaz	TB	vs Sonny Gray	10%
Hunter Feduccia	TB	vs Sonny Gray	10%
Romy Gonzalez	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	10%
Jahmai Jones	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	9%
Caleb Durbin	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	9%
Connor Wong	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	8%
Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	vs Shane McClanahan	7%
Richie Palacios	TB	vs Sonny Gray	7%
Taylor Walls	TB	vs Sonny Gray	7%
Chandler Simpson	TB	vs Sonny Gray	4%

Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves 1:35 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Matt Olson	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	19%
Joc Pederson	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	18%
Wyatt Langford	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	16%
Jake Burger	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	15%
Michael Harris II	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	15%
Josh Jung	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	15%
Drake Baldwin	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	15%
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	14%
Kyle Higashioka	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	14%
Ozzie Albies	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	14%
Austin Riley	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	14%
Ezequiel Duran	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	13%
Brewer Hicklen	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	11%
Jim Jarvis	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	10%
Evan Carter	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	9%
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	8%
Dominic Smith	ATL	vs Nathan Eovaldi	7%
Nicky Lopez	TEX	vs Grant Holmes	4%

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians 1:40 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	18%
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	17%
Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	14%
Gabriel Arias	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	11%
Chase DeLauter	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	11%
Travis Bazzana	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	10%
Henry Davis	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	10%
Nick Gonzales	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	10%
Jared Triolo	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	9%
Kyle Manzardo	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	9%
Jake Mangum	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	8%
Brayan Rocchio	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	8%
Jacob Gonzalez	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	8%
Patrick Bailey	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	7%
Kahlil Watson	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	7%
Billy Cook	PIT	vs Joey Cantillo	7%
Petey Halpin	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	5%
Steven Kwan	CLE	vs Paul Skenes	5%

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers 2:10 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Kyle Stowers	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	21%
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	18%
Jake Bauers	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	16%
Jackson Chourio	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	15%
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	14%
Brice Turang	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	14%
Griffin Conine	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	13%
Christian Yelich	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	12%
Joey Ortiz	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	10%
Gary Sánchez	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	10%
Leo Jiménez	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	10%
Braden Shewmake	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	10%
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	vs Eury Pérez	8%
Jakob Marsee	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	7%
Esteury Ruiz	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	7%
Javier Sanoja	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	7%
Liam Hicks	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	7%
Xavier Edwards	MIA	vs Robert Gasser	5%

San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals 2:10 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Jac Caglianone	KC	vs Germán Márquez	20%
Manny Machado	SD	vs Noah Cameron	20%
Salvador Perez	KC	vs Germán Márquez	17%
Ty France	SD	vs Noah Cameron	16%
Lane Thomas	KC	vs Germán Márquez	16%
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	vs Noah Cameron	15%
Carter Jensen	KC	vs Germán Márquez	15%
Jackson Merrill	SD	vs Noah Cameron	14%
Nick Loftin	KC	vs Germán Márquez	13%
Isaac Collins	KC	vs Germán Márquez	12%
Josh Rojas	KC	vs Germán Márquez	12%
Luis Rengifo	SD	vs Noah Cameron	12%
Luis Campusano	SD	vs Noah Cameron	11%
Xander Bogaerts	SD	vs Noah Cameron	11%
Miguel Andujar	SD	vs Noah Cameron	10%
Luke Maile	KC	vs Germán Márquez	10%
Tyler Tolbert	KC	vs Germán Márquez	9%
Jase Bowen	SD	vs Noah Cameron	9%

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros 2:10 PM ET, 9 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Pete Alonso	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	20%
Samuel Basallo	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	17%
Coby Mayo	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	14%
Taylor Ward	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	14%
Colton Cowser	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	13%
Leody Taveras	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	10%
Dylan Beavers	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	10%
Gunnar Henderson	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	10%
Jackson Holliday	BAL	vs Hunter Brown	9%

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM ET, 18 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Kody Clemens	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	19%
Royce Lewis	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	18%
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	17%
Dansby Swanson	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	17%
Josh Bell	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	16%
Victor Caratini	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	16%
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	16%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	14%
Michael Busch	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	14%
Ian Happ	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	13%
Pedro Ramírez	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	13%
Carson Kelly	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	13%
Alex Bregman	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	11%
Luke Keaschall	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	11%
Brooks Lee	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	10%
Ryan Kreidler	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	10%
Austin Martin	MIN	vs Shota Imanaga	7%
Nico Hoerner	CHC	vs Zebby Matthews	7%

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies 3:10 PM ET, 9 batters

Batter	Team	Opposing starter	P(1+ HR)
Eugenio Suárez	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	21%
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	19%
Spencer Steer	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	17%
Sal Stewart	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	17%
TJ Friedl	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	14%
JJ Bleday	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	14%
Dane Myers	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	13%
Tyler Stephenson	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	13%
Nathaniel Lowe	CIN	vs Ryan Feltner	12%

Calibration, the whole point

When the engine says 30%, does it happen 30% of the time? Points on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above it the model was too low, below it too high. Bins thinner than 25 samples live in the tables, not the curves.

Strikeouts

Live record

14.1% calibration error, 0.209 Brier, 159 grades

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
0 to 10%	9%	0%	3
10 to 20%	16%	26%	27
20 to 30%	26%	21%	24
30 to 40%	35%	46%	37
40 to 50%	46%	63%	30
50 to 60%	54%	75%	20
60 to 70%	65%	92%	12
70 to 80%	73%	100%	6

Engine change, 2026-07-18 → 2026-07-19. For one day the strikeout model carried an extra feature — the trailing strikeout rate of the opposing starting nine. An adversarial review found it was trained on the lineup each pitcher actually faced but served a posted-or-projected one, and that on the projected path it made the model worse than having no such feature at all; its apparent gain was never distinguishable from zero. It was removed on 2026-07-19 and the model retrained without it. 81 graded line-results (27 starts, all from 7/18) plus the 7/19 board were produced by that version. Those predictions stand exactly as published and stay in the running totals — they were made in good faith before first pitch, and deleting inconvenient history is the one thing this record will not do. Method: docs/K-FEATURE-VERDICT.md.

Backtest, not the live record

2.2% pooled calibration error, per-line 2.2% / 3.9% / 2.6%, 0.205 Brier, 1090 holdout starts

Trained on real starts before 2026-06-01, openers excluded. The three lines per start are nested views of one outcome, so the pooled number can flatter. It earns nothing until the live record proves it.

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
0 to 10%	10%	0%	1
10 to 20%	15%	14%	493
20 to 30%	25%	23%	657
30 to 40%	35%	37%	606
40 to 50%	45%	47%	614
50 to 60%	55%	56%	462
60 to 70%	65%	70%	315
70 to 80%	74%	75%	114
80 to 90%	81%	88%	8

Model	Log-loss	Brier >4.5	Brier >5.5	Brier >6.5
model	2.252	0.2279	0.2137	0.1737
marginal	2.288	0.2472	0.2367	0.1921
persistence	2.237	0.2341	0.2185	0.1743

Read it straight: the persistence baseline is ahead of the model on full-distribution log-loss. Stated precisely, because the earlier wording overstated it — the gap is +0.0169 with a 95% paired bootstrap interval of [-0.0073, +0.0410], so persistence leads on the point estimate but the difference is not distinguishable from zero at this sample size. The model does win the P(over) Briers at every published line. The live record is the referee.

Hits

Live record

2.8% calibration error, 0.197 Brier, 764 grades

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
10 to 20%	17%	5%	75
20 to 30%	24%	24%	305
30 to 40%	31%	0%	2
40 to 50%	49%	50%	2
50 to 60%	56%	52%	91
60 to 70%	65%	64%	281
70 to 80%	71%	50%	8

Backtest, not the live record

0.5% pooled calibration error, per-line 0.6% / 0.4%, AUC 0.56 / 0.57, 9946 holdout batter-games

Calibrated but only slightly sharper than the base rate. Projected lineups miss the actual nine about 24% of the time; that scratch rate is declared here in advance. Judge the live record against the live-gradeable subset: log-loss 1.2159, ECE 0.6%. Night-one predictions of 7/17 predate that evening's engine fixes; immutable either way.

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
10 to 20%	17%	17%	3065
20 to 30%	24%	24%	6797
30 to 40%	31%	35%	84
40 to 50%	49%	59%	139
50 to 60%	56%	56%	3595
60 to 70%	64%	65%	6083
70 to 80%	71%	73%	129

Model	Log-loss	Brier >0.5	Brier >1.5
model	1.1992	0.2339	0.1706
marginal	1.2052	0.2359	0.1724
persistence	1.2144	0.2380	0.1732

On this market the model beats both cheap baselines on every metric. On the K market it does not, and both statements are published with the same straight face.

Home runs

Live record

1.6% calibration error, 0.102 Brier, 382 grades

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
0 to 10%	8%	3%	91
10 to 20%	14%	14%	271
20 to 30%	21%	16%	19
30 to 40%	32%	0%	1

Backtest, not the live record

1.1% calibration error, 0.588 AUC, 9946 holdout batter-games

Aggregate rate bias -0.9%: predicted 12.1% vs observed 13.1%. The mid-summer power surge outran the training window, reported straight. Live-gradeable subset (76%): log-loss 0.4294, ECE 1.0%.

Reliability table

Bin	Predicted	Observed	n
0 to 10%	8%	9%	3601
10 to 20%	14%	15%	5910
20 to 30%	22%	19%	435

Model	Log-loss	Brier	AUC
model	0.4154	0.1126	0.588
marginal	0.4209	0.1138	0.500
persistence	0.4200	0.1134	0.572

Game prep

The scouting packet as a page, one per game: both starters with percentile sliders, arsenal tables, movement and location charts, lineup grids fused with the engine's published board numbers, and bullpen availability. Same data modules as everything above.

2026 07 19 CWS at TOR
2026 07 18 CWS at TOR
2026 07 17 CWS at TOR
CWS at TOR 2026 07 17 PDF, series format, archived

Graded log, strikeouts

Every K prediction ever published: probability, outcome, Brier. Batter-market logs live in the data archive as full CSVs.

Date	Pitcher	Matchup	K	P(K>4.5)	P(K>5.5)	P(K>6.5)	Brier
2026-07-18	Brandon Pfaadt	AZ vs STL	3	35% U	23% U	13% U	0.065
2026-07-18	Bryan Woo	SEA vs SF	7	60% O	45% O	30% O	0.319
2026-07-18	Davis Martin	CWS vs TOR	5	46% O	29% U	16% U	0.132
2026-07-18	Dustin May	STL vs AZ	6	48% O	33% O	19% U	0.250
2026-07-18	Emmet Sheehan	LAD vs NYY		voided: postponed
2026-07-18	Grayson Rodriguez	LAA vs DET	3	47% U	29% U	15% U	0.110
2026-07-18	Griffin Canning	SD vs KC	4	53% U	37% U	19% U	0.151
2026-07-18	Ian Seymour	TB vs BOS	4	43% U	33% U	22% U	0.114
2026-07-18	J.T. Ginn	ATH vs WSH	7	58% O	42% O	29% O	0.341
2026-07-18	Jesús Luzardo	PHI vs NYM	7	77% O	65% O	49% O	0.147
2026-07-18	Logan Allen	CLE vs PIT	3	51% U	35% U	26% U	0.152
2026-07-18	Logan Webb	SF vs SEA	5	49% O	31% U	21% U	0.134
2026-07-18	MacKenzie Gore	TEX vs ATL	7	64% O	48% O	35% O	0.273
2026-07-18	Matthew Boyd	CHC vs MIN	4	55% U	36% U	21% U	0.159
2026-07-18	Max Meyer	MIA vs MIL	5	64% O	46% U	32% U	0.151
2026-07-18	Patrick Sandoval	BOS vs TB	5	49% O	30% U	15% U	0.124
2026-07-18	Rhett Lowder	CIN vs COL	2	45% U	29% U	14% U	0.101
2026-07-18	Ryan Weathers	NYY vs LAD		voided: postponed
2026-07-18	Sean Manaea	NYM vs PHI	7	58% O	39% O	18% O	0.412
2026-07-18	Shane Bieber	TOR vs CWS	6	45% O	30% O	17% U	0.270
2026-07-18	Shane Drohan	MIL vs MIA	9	49% O	33% O	19% O	0.452
2026-07-18	Spencer Arrighetti	HOU vs BAL	6	68% O	51% O	30% U	0.144
2026-07-18	Taj Bradley	MIN vs CHC	6	74% O	51% O	39% U	0.152
2026-07-18	Tarik Skubal	DET vs LAA	9	71% O	58% O	45% O	0.191
2026-07-18	Tomoyuki Sugano	COL vs CIN	3	54% U	32% U	20% U	0.145
2026-07-18	Trevor Rogers	BAL vs HOU	8	48% O	30% O	16% O	0.493
2026-07-18	Zack Littell	WSH vs ATH	4	38% U	22% U	12% U	0.070
2026-07-17	Anthony Kay	CWS vs TOR	5	38% O	23% U	12% U	0.152
2026-07-17	Bailey Ober	MIN vs CHC	7	44% O	28% O	12% O	0.534
2026-07-17	Brady Singer	CIN vs COL	6	51% O	40% O	19% U	0.214
2026-07-17	Bryce Miller	SEA vs SF	6	55% O	42% O	30% U	0.212
2026-07-17	Cade Cavalli	WSH vs ATH	9	64% O	50% O	37% O	0.261
2026-07-17	Cal Quantrill	TEX vs ATL	3	35% U	21% U	10% U	0.059
2026-07-17	Chris Sale	ATL vs TEX	6	66% O	51% O	33% U	0.156
2026-07-17	Colin Rea	CHC vs MIN	6	32% O	18% O	9% U	0.381
2026-07-17	Dean Kremer	BAL vs HOU	5	64% O	49% U	32% U	0.157
2026-07-17	Eduardo Rivera	BOS vs TB	3	38% U	24% U	15% U	0.074
2026-07-17	Gabriel Hughes	COL vs CIN	6	68% O	48% O	29% U	0.153
2026-07-17	Gage Jump	ATH vs WSH	8	73% O	51% O	35% O	0.246
2026-07-17	Gavin Williams	CLE vs PIT		voided: postponed
2026-07-17	Gerrit Cole	NYY vs LAD	8	56% O	39% O	20% O	0.405
2026-07-17	Griffin Jax	TB vs BOS		voided: late
2026-07-17	Jake Bennett	BOS vs TB		voided: late
2026-07-17	Jared Jones	PIT vs CLE		voided: postponed
2026-07-17	Landen Roupp	SF vs SEA	2	65% U	45% U	31% U	0.240
2026-07-17	Logan Henderson	MIL vs MIA	4	46% U	35% U	24% U	0.130
2026-07-17	Mason Englert	TB vs BOS	4	50% U	34% U	16% U	0.132
2026-07-17	Merrill Kelly	AZ vs STL	3	41% U	29% U	14% U	0.090
2026-07-17	Michael King	SD vs KC	4	42% U	27% U	16% U	0.092
2026-07-17	Michael McGreevy	STL vs AZ	5	32% O	18% U	8% U	0.169
2026-07-17	Peter Lambert	HOU vs BAL	10	72% O	54% O	37% O	0.226
2026-07-17	Reid Detmers	LAA vs DET	7	66% O	49% O	34% O	0.269
2026-07-17	Roki Sasaki	LAD vs NYY	5	58% O	40% U	25% U	0.133
2026-07-17	Sandy Alcantara	MIA vs MIL	7	52% O	37% O	21% O	0.416
2026-07-17	Seth Lugo	KC vs SD	3	47% U	28% U	18% U	0.112
2026-07-17	Spencer Miles	TOR vs CWS	4	33% U	17% U	11% U	0.052
2026-07-17	Troy Melton	DET vs LAA	9	53% O	39% O	23% O	0.396

Data and methods

Every prediction and grade is downloadable from the archive: dated full-distribution JSON per market, complete grades CSVs, and the raw backtest pairs behind every curve on this page. Files are committed to git at publish time, so timestamps carry a witness.

Sources and caveats: Statcast via pybaseball; grading runs against Statcast play-by-play at grade time. Model features use trailing windows that may span the offseason, backward-only. Openers (nine or fewer batters faced) are excluded from the strikeout model's population. Park HR context blends true park effects with the home roster's power and is used as signal, not sold as a clean park factor.

Probabilities, not picks. This is not betting advice. Page generated 2026-07-19 16:16 UTC.