2026-09-10
Every probability published for this slate, beside what actually happened. Published before first pitch, graded that night, never edited. Rows that show a void carry the reason; they stay on the record rather than being removed.
Strikeouts
64 graded| Pitcher | Team | Opp | Line | P(over) | K | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 2.5 | 84% | 5 | over | 0.026 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 3.5 | 68% | 5 | over | 0.102 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 4.5 | 50% | 5 | over | 0.255 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 5.5 | 32% | 5 | under | 0.103 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 6.5 | 18% | 5 | under | 0.033 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 7.5 | 9% | 5 | under | 0.007 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | PHI | 8.5 | 4% | 5 | under | 0.001 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 2.5 | 90% | 12 | over | 0.009 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 3.5 | 78% | 12 | over | 0.048 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 4.5 | 62% | 12 | over | 0.147 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 5.5 | 44% | 12 | over | 0.314 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 6.5 | 28% | 12 | over | 0.518 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 7.5 | 16% | 12 | over | 0.711 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | SEA | 8.5 | 8% | 12 | over | 0.852 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 3.5 | 81% | 8 | over | 0.036 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 4.5 | 66% | 8 | over | 0.117 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 5.5 | 49% | 8 | over | 0.265 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 6.5 | 32% | 8 | over | 0.459 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 7.5 | 19% | 8 | over | 0.653 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 8.5 | 10% | 8 | under | 0.010 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | CWS | 9.5 | 5% | 8 | under | 0.002 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 3.5 | 86% | 11 | over | 0.021 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 4.5 | 72% | 11 | over | 0.077 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 5.5 | 56% | 11 | over | 0.192 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 6.5 | 40% | 11 | over | 0.363 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 7.5 | 25% | 11 | over | 0.557 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 8.5 | 14% | 11 | over | 0.732 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | 9.5 | 8% | 11 | over | 0.856 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 1.5 | 87% | 4 | over | 0.016 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 2.5 | 70% | 4 | over | 0.093 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 3.5 | 48% | 4 | over | 0.267 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 4.5 | 29% | 4 | under | 0.082 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 5.5 | 14% | 4 | under | 0.019 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 6.5 | 5% | 4 | under | 0.002 |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | TB | 7.5 | 2% | 4 | under | 0.000 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 2.5 | 86% | 7 | over | 0.019 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 3.5 | 71% | 7 | over | 0.083 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 4.5 | 53% | 7 | over | 0.225 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 5.5 | 34% | 7 | over | 0.432 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 6.5 | 19% | 7 | over | 0.652 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 7.5 | 9% | 7 | under | 0.008 |
| Max Fried | NYY | COL | 8.5 | 4% | 7 | under | 0.001 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 0.5 | 95% | 3 | over | 0.002 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 1.5 | 83% | 3 | over | 0.029 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 2.5 | 64% | 3 | over | 0.130 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 3.5 | 44% | 3 | under | 0.190 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 4.5 | 26% | 3 | under | 0.067 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 5.5 | 13% | 3 | under | 0.017 |
| Nick Martinez | TB | ATL | 6.5 | 5% | 3 | under | 0.002 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 1.5 | 94% | 2 | over | 0.004 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 2.5 | 82% | 2 | under | 0.674 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 3.5 | 65% | 2 | under | 0.418 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 4.5 | 45% | 2 | under | 0.201 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 5.5 | 27% | 2 | under | 0.073 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 6.5 | 14% | 2 | under | 0.019 |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | NYY | 7.5 | 6% | 2 | under | 0.003 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 3.5 | 89% | 9 | over | 0.011 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 4.5 | 79% | 9 | over | 0.045 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 5.5 | 65% | 9 | over | 0.126 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 6.5 | 49% | 9 | over | 0.261 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 7.5 | 34% | 9 | over | 0.434 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 8.5 | 22% | 9 | over | 0.612 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 9.5 | 13% | 9 | under | 0.016 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | HOU | 10.5 | 7% | 9 | under | 0.005 |
Hits
228 graded, 36 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 57% | 1 | over | 0.188 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.037 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 27% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 7% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ha-Seong Kim | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 52% | 2 | over | 0.230 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 16% | 2 | over | 0.707 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 2% | 2 | under | 0.000 |
| Lane Thomas | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 54% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Lane Thomas | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 15% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Lane Thomas | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 2% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 68% | 1 | over | 0.105 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 25% | 1 | under | 0.064 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.003 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 66% | 0 | under | 0.438 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 25% | 0 | under | 0.060 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 66% | 0 | under | 0.438 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 26% | 0 | under | 0.066 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 65% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | 26% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | Nick Martinez | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Adael Amador | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 59% | 1 | over | 0.166 |
| Adael Amador | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.036 |
| Adael Amador | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Cole Carrigg | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.135 |
| Cole Carrigg | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.052 |
| Cole Carrigg | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Connor Norby | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 60% | 0 | under | 0.357 |
| Connor Norby | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.042 |
| Connor Norby | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 49% | 2 | over | 0.264 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 13% | 2 | over | 0.753 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 2% | 2 | under | 0.000 |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.396 |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.053 |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Jake McCarthy | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 65% | 2 | over | 0.126 |
| Jake McCarthy | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 25% | 2 | over | 0.559 |
| Jake McCarthy | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 5% | 2 | under | 0.002 |
| Jordan Beck | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 49% | 0 | under | 0.242 |
| Jordan Beck | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Jordan Beck | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.000 |
| Kyle Karros | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 59% | 1 | over | 0.168 |
| Kyle Karros | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.036 |
| Kyle Karros | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| TJ Rumfield | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 64% | — | voided scratch | — |
| TJ Rumfield | COL | Max Fried | 1.5 | 26% | — | voided scratch | — |
| TJ Rumfield | COL | Max Fried | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Andrew Benintendi | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 54% | 0 | under | 0.291 |
| Andrew Benintendi | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| Andrew Benintendi | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.333 |
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.035 |
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.383 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.036 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 58% | 1 | over | 0.178 |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.036 |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 48% | 0 | under | 0.231 |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.019 |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 67% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 23% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 57% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 18% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 3% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.395 |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.045 |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.321 |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | Jared Jones | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.031 |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | Jared Jones | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Cam Smith | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 52% | 2 | over | 0.226 |
| Cam Smith | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 15% | 2 | over | 0.718 |
| Cam Smith | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 3% | 2 | under | 0.001 |
| Christian Vázquez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 51% | 0 | under | 0.259 |
| Christian Vázquez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Christian Vázquez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Christian Walker | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 57% | 1 | over | 0.186 |
| Christian Walker | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 18% | 1 | under | 0.032 |
| Christian Walker | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Daulton Varsho | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.319 |
| Daulton Varsho | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.032 |
| Daulton Varsho | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.150 |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.053 |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 60% | 1 | over | 0.157 |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.045 |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 59% | 2 | over | 0.167 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 23% | 2 | over | 0.591 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 5% | 2 | under | 0.002 |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 50% | 1 | over | 0.254 |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 14% | 1 | under | 0.021 |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 2% | 1 | under | 0.000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.416 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | 25% | 0 | under | 0.063 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 54% | 3 | over | 0.214 |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 16% | 3 | over | 0.707 |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 3% | 3 | over | 0.945 |
| Austin Wells | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.313 |
| Austin Wells | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.033 |
| Austin Wells | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 67% | 1 | over | 0.107 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 27% | 1 | under | 0.073 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 7% | 1 | under | 0.005 |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 67% | 2 | over | 0.111 |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 26% | 2 | over | 0.541 |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 6% | 2 | under | 0.004 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.319 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.032 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.397 |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.040 |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Luis García Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 63% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Luis García Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 28% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Luis García Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 6% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 57% | 1 | over | 0.181 |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 16% | 1 | under | 0.024 |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 2% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 57% | 3 | over | 0.184 |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 1.5 | 18% | 3 | over | 0.669 |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | 3% | 3 | over | 0.940 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.148 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.052 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 55% | 0 | under | 0.307 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.022 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.376 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.054 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 60% | 0 | under | 0.362 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.034 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Justin Crawford | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 54% | 1 | over | 0.215 |
| Justin Crawford | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 14% | 1 | under | 0.021 |
| Justin Crawford | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.393 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.052 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 69% | 1 | over | 0.097 |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 29% | 1 | under | 0.085 |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 7% | 1 | under | 0.006 |
| Rafael Marchán | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 45% | 0 | under | 0.205 |
| Rafael Marchán | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| Rafael Marchán | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 1% | 0 | under | 0.000 |
| Trea Turner | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Trea Turner | PHI | Cristian Javier | 1.5 | 23% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Trea Turner | PHI | Cristian Javier | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.376 |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.046 |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.383 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.045 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Jake Mangum | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.320 |
| Jake Mangum | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.043 |
| Jake Mangum | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Jared Triolo | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 54% | 1 | over | 0.207 |
| Jared Triolo | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 14% | 1 | under | 0.018 |
| Jared Triolo | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Konnor Griffin | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.378 |
| Konnor Griffin | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.050 |
| Konnor Griffin | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 65% | 1 | over | 0.126 |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.046 |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 61% | 3 | over | 0.151 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 21% | 3 | over | 0.624 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 4% | 3 | over | 0.918 |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 57% | 1 | over | 0.184 |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 18% | 1 | under | 0.032 |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Spencer Horwitz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.154 |
| Spencer Horwitz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.045 |
| Spencer Horwitz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Brock Rodden | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 45% | 0 | under | 0.200 |
| Brock Rodden | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| Brock Rodden | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.000 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 60% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 20% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Cole Young | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.140 |
| Cole Young | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 21% | 1 | under | 0.045 |
| Cole Young | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.146 |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.047 |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.339 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Josh Naylor | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.416 |
| Josh Naylor | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.058 |
| Josh Naylor | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.147 |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.048 |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 64% | 0 | under | 0.407 |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.055 |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Cedric Mullins | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 59% | 0 | under | 0.343 |
| Cedric Mullins | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| Cedric Mullins | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 31% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 8% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 62% | 2 | over | 0.146 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 24% | 2 | over | 0.573 |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 5% | 2 | under | 0.002 |
| Jorge Mateo | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.337 |
| Jorge Mateo | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.039 |
| Jorge Mateo | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 67% | 0 | under | 0.448 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 28% | 0 | under | 0.078 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Nick Fortes | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.317 |
| Nick Fortes | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.031 |
| Nick Fortes | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Nick Madrigal | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 61% | 0 | under | 0.373 |
| Nick Madrigal | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 24% | 0 | under | 0.058 |
| Nick Madrigal | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Ryan Vilade | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 61% | 1 | over | 0.153 |
| Ryan Vilade | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 20% | 1 | under | 0.042 |
| Ryan Vilade | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 69% | 1 | over | 0.094 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Martín Pérez | 1.5 | 28% | 1 | under | 0.079 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Martín Pérez | 2.5 | 8% | 1 | under | 0.007 |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.423 |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 25% | 0 | under | 0.061 |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.385 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.046 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Danny Jansen | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 49% | 1 | over | 0.264 |
| Danny Jansen | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 13% | 1 | under | 0.018 |
| Danny Jansen | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 2% | 1 | under | 0.000 |
| Evan Carter | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 54% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Evan Carter | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 17% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Evan Carter | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 3% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.403 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.054 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Jake Burger | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 60% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jake Burger | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 21% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jake Burger | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 50% | 1 | over | 0.250 |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 14% | 1 | under | 0.021 |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 2% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Nicky Lopez | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 53% | 2 | over | 0.219 |
| Nicky Lopez | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 17% | 2 | over | 0.684 |
| Nicky Lopez | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 3% | 2 | under | 0.001 |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 63% | 0 | under | 0.396 |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | 23% | 0 | under | 0.052 |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
Home runs
76 graded, 12 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.029 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 18% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ha-Seong Kim | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Lane Thomas | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 11% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.035 |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.025 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | Nick Martinez | 0.5 | 17% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Adael Amador | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Cole Carrigg | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Connor Norby | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Jake McCarthy | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Jordan Beck | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Kyle Karros | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 14% | 1 | over | 0.732 |
| TJ Rumfield | COL | Max Fried | 0.5 | 10% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Andrew Benintendi | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.020 |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 15% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 17% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | Jared Jones | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Cam Smith | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 12% | 1 | over | 0.779 |
| Christian Vázquez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Christian Walker | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Daulton Varsho | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.011 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Zack Wheeler | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.019 |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 9% | 1 | over | 0.837 |
| Austin Wells | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.027 |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| George Lombard Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Luis García Jr. | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 20% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | Ryan Feltner | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.028 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.023 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.026 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Justin Crawford | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 22% | 0 | under | 0.049 |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Rafael Marchán | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Trea Turner | PHI | Cristian Javier | 0.5 | 12% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.013 |
| Jake Mangum | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Jared Triolo | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Konnor Griffin | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 15% | 1 | over | 0.731 |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.025 |
| Spencer Horwitz | PIT | Hagen Smith | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Brock Rodden | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 19% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Cole Young | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.017 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Josh Naylor | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 15% | 1 | over | 0.719 |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | Jacob deGrom | 0.5 | 14% | 0 | under | 0.019 |
| Cedric Mullins | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Jorge Mateo | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.024 |
| Nick Fortes | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Nick Madrigal | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Ryan Vilade | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 17% | 0 | under | 0.028 |
| Yandy Díaz | TB | Martín Pérez | 0.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.026 |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.013 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.040 |
| Danny Jansen | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Evan Carter | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 10% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.018 |
| Jake Burger | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 16% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 15% | 1 | over | 0.718 |
| Nicky Lopez | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | Logan Gilbert | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
Run totals
5 graded| Game | Mean | P(over 8.5) | Actual | CRPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX at SEA | 8.99 | 51% | 7 | 1.224 |
| HOU at PHI | 8.77 | 48% | 3 | 3.460 |
| COL at NYY | 9.14 | 52% | 13 | 2.511 |
| PIT at CWS | 8.80 | 48% | 2 | 4.452 |
| TB at ATL | 9.06 | 51% | 4 | 2.903 |
Brier is the squared error of a probability (0 perfect, 0.25 a coin flip, 1 confidently wrong). Totals are scored by CRPS over the whole distribution instead, so the two are not comparable. Machine-readable versions of everything here are in the raw artifacts.