2026-09-21
Every probability published for this slate, beside what actually happened. Published before first pitch, graded that night, never edited. Rows that show a void carry the reason; they stay on the record rather than being removed.
Strikeouts
28 graded| Pitcher | Team | Opp | Line | P(over) | K | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 1.5 | 92% | 4 | over | 0.007 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 2.5 | 78% | 4 | over | 0.048 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 3.5 | 59% | 4 | over | 0.166 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 4.5 | 40% | 4 | under | 0.156 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 5.5 | 23% | 4 | under | 0.052 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 6.5 | 11% | 4 | under | 0.012 |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | MIN | 7.5 | 5% | 4 | under | 0.002 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 1.5 | 92% | 2 | over | 0.007 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 2.5 | 79% | 2 | under | 0.622 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 3.5 | 61% | 2 | under | 0.376 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 4.5 | 43% | 2 | under | 0.182 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 5.5 | 26% | 2 | under | 0.070 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 6.5 | 14% | 2 | under | 0.020 |
| Shane Baz | BAL | TOR | 7.5 | 7% | 2 | under | 0.005 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 2.5 | 89% | 3 | over | 0.012 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 3.5 | 76% | 3 | under | 0.579 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 4.5 | 59% | 3 | under | 0.347 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 5.5 | 41% | 3 | under | 0.166 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 6.5 | 25% | 3 | under | 0.061 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 7.5 | 13% | 3 | under | 0.016 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | BAL | 8.5 | 6% | 3 | under | 0.003 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 2.5 | 87% | 9 | over | 0.018 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 3.5 | 72% | 9 | over | 0.081 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 4.5 | 53% | 9 | over | 0.219 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 5.5 | 35% | 9 | over | 0.424 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 6.5 | 20% | 9 | over | 0.643 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 7.5 | 9% | 9 | over | 0.821 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | SF | 8.5 | 4% | 9 | over | 0.921 |
Hits
126 graded, 21 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.142 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 24% | 1 | under | 0.059 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Coby Mayo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 64% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Coby Mayo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 22% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Coby Mayo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Colton Cowser | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 52% | 0 | under | 0.271 |
| Colton Cowser | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 16% | 0 | under | 0.024 |
| Colton Cowser | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Dylan Beavers | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 62% | 0 | under | 0.380 |
| Dylan Beavers | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.046 |
| Dylan Beavers | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 62% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 23% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 66% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 24% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 5% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Rece Hinds | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 43% | 0 | under | 0.183 |
| Rece Hinds | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 13% | 0 | under | 0.016 |
| Rece Hinds | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 2% | 0 | under | 0.000 |
| Samuel Basallo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.339 |
| Samuel Basallo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 1.5 | 19% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| Samuel Basallo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Ben Malgeri | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 54% | 2 | over | 0.210 |
| Ben Malgeri | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 16% | 2 | over | 0.699 |
| Ben Malgeri | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 3% | 2 | under | 0.001 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 63% | 2 | over | 0.140 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 25% | 2 | over | 0.570 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 4% | 2 | under | 0.002 |
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 66% | 3 | over | 0.114 |
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 25% | 3 | over | 0.564 |
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 5% | 3 | over | 0.912 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 66% | 0 | under | 0.431 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 27% | 0 | under | 0.071 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 63% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Hao-Yu Lee | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 23% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Hao-Yu Lee | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Javier Báez | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 45% | 1 | over | 0.303 |
| Javier Báez | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 14% | 1 | under | 0.020 |
| Javier Báez | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 2% | 1 | under | 0.000 |
| John Peck | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.325 |
| John Peck | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.038 |
| John Peck | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Riley Greene | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 69% | 0 | under | 0.470 |
| Riley Greene | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 25% | 0 | under | 0.061 |
| Riley Greene | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 60% | 1 | over | 0.157 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | DJ Herz | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.048 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | DJ Herz | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Alan Roden | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 60% | 1 | over | 0.160 |
| Alan Roden | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.035 |
| Alan Roden | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 66% | 1 | over | 0.115 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 28% | 1 | under | 0.078 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 6% | 1 | under | 0.003 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 67% | 0 | under | 0.446 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 26% | 0 | under | 0.070 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 68% | 0 | under | 0.467 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 28% | 0 | under | 0.080 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 68% | 0 | under | 0.461 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 28% | 0 | under | 0.080 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 58% | 0 | under | 0.338 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 20% | 0 | under | 0.041 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Walker Jenkins | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 59% | 1 | over | 0.170 |
| Walker Jenkins | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 1.5 | 20% | 1 | under | 0.042 |
| Walker Jenkins | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Brett Harris | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 54% | 2 | over | 0.216 |
| Brett Harris | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 16% | 2 | over | 0.704 |
| Brett Harris | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 2% | 2 | under | 0.001 |
| Christian Koss | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 55% | 1 | over | 0.201 |
| Christian Koss | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.035 |
| Christian Koss | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 3% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Drew Cavanaugh | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 57% | 0 | under | 0.322 |
| Drew Cavanaugh | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.032 |
| Drew Cavanaugh | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Drew Gilbert | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 57% | 3 | over | 0.181 |
| Drew Gilbert | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 18% | 3 | over | 0.667 |
| Drew Gilbert | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 4% | 3 | over | 0.914 |
| Jonah Cox | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.139 |
| Jonah Cox | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.053 |
| Jonah Cox | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Marcelo Mayer | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 56% | 0 | under | 0.310 |
| Marcelo Mayer | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.031 |
| Marcelo Mayer | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Osleivis Basabe | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 58% | 1 | over | 0.179 |
| Osleivis Basabe | SF | Zebby Matthews | 1.5 | 19% | 1 | under | 0.035 |
| Osleivis Basabe | SF | Zebby Matthews | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.001 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 70% | 1 | over | 0.088 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 28% | 1 | under | 0.081 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 6% | 1 | under | 0.004 |
| Andrés Giménez | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.135 |
| Andrés Giménez | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 25% | 1 | under | 0.064 |
| Andrés Giménez | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Brett Bateman | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 70% | 0 | under | 0.491 |
| Brett Bateman | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 27% | 0 | under | 0.075 |
| Brett Bateman | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 65% | 0 | under | 0.426 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 26% | 0 | under | 0.070 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| George Springer | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 67% | 2 | over | 0.111 |
| George Springer | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 26% | 2 | over | 0.540 |
| George Springer | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 6% | 2 | under | 0.004 |
| Josh Smith | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 56% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Josh Smith | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 16% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Josh Smith | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 3% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 63% | 1 | over | 0.136 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 23% | 1 | under | 0.054 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Nathan Lukes | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.141 |
| Nathan Lukes | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 22% | 1 | under | 0.050 |
| Nathan Lukes | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 4% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Sean Keys | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 49% | 0 | under | 0.244 |
| Sean Keys | TOR | Shane Baz | 1.5 | 15% | 0 | under | 0.021 |
| Sean Keys | TOR | Shane Baz | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 55% | 0 | under | 0.301 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.031 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
| Brady House | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 65% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Brady House | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 24% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Brady House | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| CJ Abrams | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 64% | 0 | under | 0.411 |
| CJ Abrams | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 25% | 0 | under | 0.063 |
| CJ Abrams | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 4% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Daylen Lile | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 66% | 0 | under | 0.429 |
| Daylen Lile | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 26% | 0 | under | 0.065 |
| Daylen Lile | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 62% | 1 | over | 0.144 |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 24% | 1 | under | 0.055 |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.002 |
| Jacob Young | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 54% | 2 | over | 0.214 |
| Jacob Young | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 17% | 2 | over | 0.682 |
| Jacob Young | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 4% | 2 | under | 0.001 |
| James Wood | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 65% | 1 | over | 0.120 |
| James Wood | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 26% | 1 | under | 0.070 |
| James Wood | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 5% | 1 | under | 0.003 |
| Jorbit Vivas | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 58% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jorbit Vivas | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 20% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Jorbit Vivas | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 4% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 60% | 0 | under | 0.356 |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | River Ryan | 1.5 | 21% | 0 | under | 0.044 |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | River Ryan | 2.5 | 3% | 0 | under | 0.001 |
Home runs
42 graded, 7 voided| Batter | Team | Opposing starter | Line | P(over) | Actual | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Coby Mayo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 12% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Colton Cowser | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Dylan Beavers | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 10% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 15% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Rece Hinds | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Samuel Basallo | BAL | Trey Yesavage | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Ben Malgeri | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 6% | 1 | over | 0.876 |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.015 |
| Gleyber Torres | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 12% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Javier Báez | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 7% | 1 | over | 0.863 |
| John Peck | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Riley Greene | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.032 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | DJ Herz | 0.5 | 12% | 1 | over | 0.770 |
| Alan Roden | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 9% | 1 | over | 0.825 |
| Kody Clemens | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.013 |
| Luke Keaschall | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.008 |
| Ryan Kreidler | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Walker Jenkins | MIN | Blade Tidwell | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Brett Harris | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Christian Koss | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.002 |
| Drew Cavanaugh | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| Drew Gilbert | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 10% | 1 | over | 0.812 |
| Jonah Cox | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
| Marcelo Mayer | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Osleivis Basabe | SF | Zebby Matthews | 0.5 | 5% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 10% | 0 | under | 0.010 |
| Andrés Giménez | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Brett Bateman | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.003 |
| George Springer | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Josh Smith | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 10% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 12% | 0 | under | 0.014 |
| Nathan Lukes | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Sean Keys | TOR | Shane Baz | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.007 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 7% | 0 | under | 0.005 |
| Brady House | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 9% | — | voided scratch | — |
| CJ Abrams | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 11% | 0 | under | 0.012 |
| Daylen Lile | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 18% | 0 | under | 0.033 |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Jacob Young | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 6% | 0 | under | 0.004 |
| James Wood | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 9% | 0 | under | 0.009 |
| Jorbit Vivas | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 6% | — | voided scratch | — |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | River Ryan | 0.5 | 8% | 0 | under | 0.006 |
Run totals
3 graded| Game | Mean | P(over 8.5) | Actual | CRPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at SF | 9.34 | 54% | 7 | 1.335 |
| WSH at DET | 8.90 | 50% | 11 | 1.561 |
| TOR at BAL | 8.68 | 47% | 7 | 1.101 |
Brier is the squared error of a probability (0 perfect, 0.25 a coin flip, 1 confidently wrong). Totals are scored by CRPS over the whole distribution instead, so the two are not comparable. Machine-readable versions of everything here are in the raw artifacts.