CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-07-18 00:10 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
2026-07-17, 7:15 PM ET, Rogers Centre.
Anthony Kay (L) against
Spencer Miles (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks.
Spencer Miles (RHP)
958 pitches, K% 22% vs LHB / 25% vs RHB
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5523%
BB%598%
CSW%5227%
Whiff%1018%
Chase%3228%
xwOBA vs82.284
Hard-hit%7435%
GB%9254%
published K forecast: E[K] 3.8
recent starts, K (n=3)
205/10 LAA
205/31 BAL
107/07 SF
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
xwOBA
RV/100
sinker
34%
46%
96.1
+7
-16
2254
15%
30%
22%
.317
-2.9
curveball
35%
18%
80.7
-11
+13
2861
21%
29%
33%
.289
-0.6
slider
10%
24%
87.3
-1
+4
2514
22%
25%
30%
.231
+0.0
4-seam
20%
12%
96.1
+15
-8
2238
17%
20%
30%
.233
-1.2
Locations, catcher view
sinkercurveballslider
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the sinker early: 40% usage, only 15% whiffs, 61% in-zone.
Vs lefties he leans curveball (35% of pitches to that side).
Anthony Kay (LHP)
1635 pitches, K% 26% vs LHB / 14% vs RHB
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1818%
BB%429%
CSW%2626%
Whiff%3621%
Chase%6732%
xwOBA vs16.351
Hard-hit%4839%
GB%5644%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
206/17 NYY
806/22 CLE
206/28 KC
207/03 CLE
407/09 BOS
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
15%
26%
95.8
+15
+7
2345
15%
24%
33%
.382
+0.5
sweeper
33%
19%
82.6
-0
-13
2434
36%
34%
23%
.312
+0.7
sinker
32%
13%
95.1
+5
+16
2248
15%
27%
38%
.383
-0.1
cutter
14%
18%
91.2
+6
-2
2384
18%
24%
28%
.453
+0.5
changeup
0%
19%
86.0
+0
+14
1698
23%
16%
36%
.261
-0.1
slider
6%
5%
86.0
-4
-4
2539
34%
25%
44%
.240
+1.1
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsweepersinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Toronto Blue Jays
Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Okamoto (30%), Valenzuela (26%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Guerrero Jr. (42%), Okamoto (39%).
Careful with Urías: 88% contact, 8% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Spencer Miles
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted.
#
Batter
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
14-day
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
.393
14%
22%
86%
40%
67%
13%
▼ -3%
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
.403
31%
22%
60%
60%
·
·
▼ -32%
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
.382
18%
21%
82%
42%
65%
18%
▲ +2%
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
.325
32%
32%
66%
47%
61%
16%
▲ +5%
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
.339
22%
30%
76%
51%
63%
13%
▲ +11%
6
Kyle Teel (L)
.339
39%
27%
67%
57%
60%
16%
▲ +8%
7
Braden Montgomery (S)
.330
17%
27%
81%
42%
61%
8%
▲ +2%
8
Tristan Peters (L)
.323
18%
34%
82%
34%
61%
11%
▲ +2%
9
Chase Meidroth (R)
.291
25%
26%
81%
32%
64%
8%
▲ +4%
Toronto Blue Jays bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted.
#
Batter
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
14-day
1
Ernie Clement (R)
6%
13%
25%
.286
67%
7%
▲ +1%
2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
12%
10%
42%
.404
69%
15%
▼ -10%
3
Kazuma Okamoto (R)
18%
30%
39%
.357
65%
18%
▲ +4%
4
George Springer (R)
17%
23%
30%
.317
65%
16%
▲ +10%
5
Alejandro Kirk (R)
32%
·
·
.198
59%
12%
▲ +10%
6
Daulton Varsho (L)
10%
24%
·
.291
60%
11%
▲ +6%
7
Brandon Valenzuela (S)
16%
26%
37%
.321
·
·
▲ +5%
8
Luis Urías (R)
11%
·
·
·
·
·
·
9
Myles Straw (R)
8%
24%
·
.290
·
·
▲ +5%
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.