CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-07-18 16:06 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
2026-07-18, 3:07 PM ET, Rogers Centre.
Davis Martin (R) against
Shane Bieber (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks.
Shane Bieber (RHP)limited 2026 sample
353 pitches, K% 15% vs LHB / 15% vs RHB
League percentiles, starter pool
K%815%
BB%1612%
CSW%3026%
Whiff%4022%
Chase%5030%
xwOBA vs0.477
Hard-hit%056%
GB%2237%
recent starts, K (n=4)
206/23 HOU
406/28 TEX
307/04 SEA
407/10 SD
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
37%
35%
92.2
+17
-10
2385
9%
28%
20%
.455
+1.7
changeup
29%
11%
88.2
+2
-15
1805
22%
20%
27%
.376
-0.4
knuckle-curve
22%
15%
82.9
-11
+6
2532
38%
35%
46%
.491
+1.2
cutter
10%
20%
87.4
+8
+0
2582
19%
19%
35%
.441
+2.3
slider
2%
16%
84.7
-2
+0
2582
26%
25%
41%
·
·
Locations, catcher view
4-seamchangeupknuckle-curve
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 36% usage, only 9% whiffs, 48% in-zone.
Lay off the knuckle-curve below the zone: 38% whiffs, only 30% of them are strikes.
Vs lefties he leans changeup (29% of pitches to that side).
Davis Martin (RHP)
1607 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB / 24% vs RHB
League percentiles, starter pool
K%4722%
BB%647%
CSW%4527%
Whiff%5423%
Chase%7533%
xwOBA vs42.323
Hard-hit%1544%
GB%5343%
recent starts, K (n=5)
406/16 NYY
406/21 DET
306/27 KC
007/02 CLE
207/08 BOS
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
28%
23%
94.1
+14
-6
2411
22%
25%
28%
.328
+0.8
sinker
15%
23%
92.9
+8
-14
2395
8%
23%
26%
.348
-2.0
changeup
18%
9%
90.3
+1
-14
2124
13%
20%
38%
.322
-2.5
slider
6%
29%
87.2
+1
+5
2599
39%
31%
48%
.233
-0.6
curveball
17%
8%
81.9
-7
+14
2884
38%
30%
27%
.263
+0.2
cutter
16%
9%
89.6
+7
+2
2574
28%
33%
28%
.426
+0.4
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsinkerchangeup
Movement
Attack plan vs Toronto Blue Jays
Slider/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Okamoto (41%), Springer (31%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Okamoto (32%), Giménez (29%).
Careful with Kirk: 88% contact, 9% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Shane Bieber
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted.
#
Batter
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
14-day
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
.393
14%
22%
86%
40%
·
·
▼ -3%
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
.403
31%
22%
60%
60%
·
·
▼ -32%
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
.382
18%
21%
82%
42%
·
·
▲ +2%
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
.325
32%
32%
66%
47%
·
·
▲ +5%
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
.339
22%
30%
76%
51%
·
·
▲ +11%
6
Kyle Teel (L)
.339
39%
27%
67%
57%
·
·
▲ +8%
7
Braden Montgomery (S)
.330
17%
27%
81%
42%
·
·
▲ +2%
8
Tristan Peters (L)
.323
18%
34%
82%
34%
·
·
▲ +2%
9
Chase Meidroth (R)
.291
25%
26%
81%
32%
·
·
▲ +4%
Toronto Blue Jays bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted.
#
Batter
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
14-day
1
Ernie Clement (R)
10%
25%
13%
.269
·
·
▲ +1%
2
Nathan Lukes (L)
15%
16%
13%
.318
·
·
▲ +5%
3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
13%
28%
17%
.332
·
·
▼ -10%
4
George Springer (R)
14%
31%
27%
.306
·
·
▲ +10%
5
Kazuma Okamoto (R)
29%
41%
32%
.322
·
·
▲ +4%
6
Daulton Varsho (L)
18%
18%
23%
.299
·
·
▲ +6%
7
Alejandro Kirk (R)
5%
27%
·
.289
·
·
▲ +10%
8
Andrés Giménez (L)
18%
31%
29%
.262
·
·
▼ -1%
9
Jonatan Clase (S)
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.