Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.429 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.311 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 44% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (15 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.718 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and away on 6% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 19% of the time there, against 16% for a typical hitter — +3 points. (18 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 21% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 42% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (53 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — a spot he goes to often, 11% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.393 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.257 league average in that spot. (17 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 19% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 22% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (21 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — a spot he goes to often, 11% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.306 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.257 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Kyle Teel
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.655 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Tristan Peters
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.355 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.311 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.378 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.311 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.