Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.456 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.718 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Randal Grichuk
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
4. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.419 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
4. Colson Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.576 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.596 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Junior Perez
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Chase Meidroth
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up and in on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 18% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +9 points. (18 swings.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.