Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.456 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.718 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.596 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.419 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Chase Meidroth
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up and in on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 18% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +9 points. (18 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
9. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.