Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

2026-07-22, 8:05 PM ET, Globe Life Field. Anthony Kay (L) against Tyler Alexander (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks.

Tyler Alexander (LHP)

671 pitches, K% 19% vs LHB / 23% vs RHB

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4221%
BB%767%
CSW%7329%
Whiff%3221%
Chase%6832%
xwOBA vs79.285
Hard-hit%7135%
GB%9154%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.2
recent starts, K (n=3) last start 06/29, 23 days ago
105/19
COL
106/22
MIA
206/29
CLE

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW ChasexwOBA RV/100
changeup1704%38%84.5+2+14148924%18%44%.269+0.7
cutter16322%26%88.0+10-1236219%34%11%.314-1.2
sinker14336%13%91.1+9+1621068%29%31%.319+1.1
sweeper10427%9%79.8+2-15251824%34%33%.273-0.5
4-seam9011%15%91.9+15+10222230%33%35%.238-1.6

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

changeup
cutter
sinker

Movement

changeup: +2 IVB, +14 HBcutter: +10 IVB, -1 HBsinker: +9 IVB, +16 HBsweeper: +2 IVB, -15 HB4-seam: +15 IVB, +10 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the cutter early: 24% usage, only 19% whiffs, 54% in-zone.
  • Two strikes: expect the changeup (37% of 2-strike pitches vs 25% overall).
  • Vs righties he leans changeup (38% of pitches to that side).

Anthony Kay (LHP)

1718 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB / 15% vs RHB

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2018%
BB%409%
CSW%2125%
Whiff%3621%
Chase%6932%
xwOBA vs15.354
Hard-hit%4140%
GB%5343%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.4
recent starts, K (n=5)
806/22
CLE
206/28
KC
207/03
CLE
407/09
BOS
507/17
TOR

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW ChasexwOBA RV/100
4-seam40616%26%95.8+15+7234216%24%33%.371+0.3
sweeper38034%18%82.6-0-13243336%33%24%.314+0.8
sinker30731%13%95.1+5+16224715%26%37%.399+0.4
cutter28614%18%91.2+7-2238318%24%28%.450+0.5
changeup2480%19%86.0+0+14170124%16%36%.266-0.2
slider915%5%86.1-4-4253931%23%44%.250+0.6

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
sweeper
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsweeper: -0 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -2 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Texas Rangers

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Burger (44%), Nimmo (29%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Burger (39%), Langford (38%).
  • Careful with Osuna: 86% contact, 15% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Tyler Alexander

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted.

#BatterxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)14-day
1Sam Antonacci (L).27221%26%87%23%65%11%▲ +5%
2Munetaka Murakami (L).31737%21%59%56%56%14%▼ -12%
3Miguel Vargas (R).45214%22%88%58%65%22%▼ -1%
4Colson Montgomery (L).33632%35%67%38%61%18%▼ -1%
5Braden Montgomery (S).24527%36%65%32%61%10%▲ +2%
6Chase Meidroth (R).29821%29%86%38%64%8%▲ +5%
7Andrew Benintendi (L).27938%41%66%29%61%11%▲ +3%
8Edgar Quero (S).27621%28%86%33%60%11%·
9Tristan Peters (L).25917%24%76%8%63%12%▼ -5%

Texas Rangers bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted.

#BatterFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)14-day
1Wyatt Langford (R)18%3%38%.31069%14%≈ -0%
2Justin Foscue (R)18%24%14%.36567%14%▲ +5%
3Jake Burger (R)25%44%39%.30861%18%▼ -4%
4Brandon Nimmo (L)17%29%·.31067%16%▼ -4%
5Ezequiel Duran (R)17%20%22%.30764%13%▼ -6%
6Cam Cauley (R)29%··.23253%5%▼ -11%
7Elias Díaz (R)24%14%26%.34962%14%▲ +2%
8Alejandro Osuna (L)9%23%·.34063%6%▼ -8%
9Nicky Lopez (L)15%14%·.31258%5%▲ +3%

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Tyler Alexander

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.495 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 22% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.461 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Braden Montgomery

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Andrew Benintendi

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Edgar Quero

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Tristan Peters

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/1907/2007/2130-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·1817238p/10g24%20%.3014-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (29%)
Grant Taylor (R)9··202p/10g33%27%.2464-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 84 (33%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·20·197p/8g24%22%.3104-seam 95 (51%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Brandon Eisert (L)···153p/8g27%29%.299slider 84 (41%) · 4-seam 90 (41%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)·17·148p/9g29%28%.3474-seam 97 (43%) · sweeper 86 (34%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·19·146p/10g26%24%.282sweeper 87 (38%) · sinker 100 (38%)
Chris Murphy (L)·15·117p/8g22%26%.3044-seam 97 (35%) · curveball 78 (30%)
Bryan Hudson (L)15··113p/7g22%21%.3004-seam 92 (58%) · sweeper 80 (41%)
Texas Rangers bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/1907/2007/2130-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Peyton Gray (R)921·192p/10g24%23%.285changeup 84 (39%) · 4-seam 93 (34%)
Robby Ahlstrom (L)1527·188p/14g16%22%.3374-seam 94 (35%) · sinker 94 (25%)
Jacob Latz (L)···172p/8g28%27%.2504-seam 95 (48%) · changeup 87 (26%)
Cole Winn (R)19··155p/10g23%26%.337cutter 91 (35%) · 4-seam 95 (26%)
Gavin Collyer (R)···133p/5g21%25%.3224-seam 97 (40%) · sweeper 85 (26%)
Jakob Junis (R)···103p/6g19%17%.304sweeper 83 (50%) · sinker 92 (21%)
Ben Peoples (R)2615·99p/6g17%23%.3164-seam 96 (65%) · slider 88 (34%)
Chris Martin (R)···79p/4g14%14%.408cutter 91 (37%) · 4-seam 94 (28%)