CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-07-24 23:04 UTC

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

2026-07-24, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Davis Martin (R) against Spencer Arrighetti (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-23.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)

1472 pitches, K% 23% vs LHB (222 BF) / 22% vs RHB (156 BF)

16 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 94 pitches (IQR 88–96, 16 starts) · fastball -0.8 mph late (11 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5123%
BB%913%
CSW%5627%
Whiff%5724%
Chase%1326%
xwOBA vs20.345
Hard-hit%9131%
GB%2437%
1st-pitch strike%353%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
806/20
CLE
706/26
DET
407/03
TB
207/08
WSH
607/18
BAL

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
curveball49038%26%76.7-6+17283436%30%29%49%31%.268-0.0
4-seam43231%27%92.4+14-11234020%27%23%27%46%.413-0.4
sweeper1848%19%79.5+2+16275226%29%34%14%40%.287+1.0
sinker1524%19%92.1+9-1722975%24%21%2%·.468+0.8
changeup10311%1%84.2+4-13142922%17%22%4%·.348+0.5
cutter947%6%87.7+11+2234813%33%19%5%·.372-0.5

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

curveball
4-seam
sweeper

Movement

curveball: -6 IVB, +17 HB4-seam: +14 IVB, -11 HBsweeper: +2 IVB, +16 HBsinker: +9 IVB, -17 HBchangeup: +4 IVB, -13 HBcutter: +11 IVB, +2 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 36% of his first pitches, only 20% whiffs, 52% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Two strikes: expect the curveball (49% of 2-strike pitches vs 33% overall).
  • Lay off the curveball below the zone: 36% whiffs, only 36% of them are strikes.

Davis Martin (RHP)

1692 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (260 BF) / 24% vs RHB (180 BF)

19 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 84–94, 19 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (13 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4622%
BB%638%
CSW%3926%
Whiff%5123%
Chase%7633%
xwOBA vs42.323
Hard-hit%1743%
GB%5143%
1st-pitch strike%2058%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
406/21
DET
306/27
KC
007/02
CLE
207/08
BOS
507/18
TOR

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam43128%22%94.1+14-6241221%25%30%30%41%.316+0.5
sinker30215%24%92.9+8-1423978%23%24%11%60%.353-1.6
changeup23818%8%90.3+1-14212313%19%38%16%40%.322-2.5
slider2386%28%87.2+1+5260238%30%48%20%26%.262-0.4
cutter23117%9%89.7+7+2257726%32%29%10%55%.417+0.1
curveball22016%8%81.9-7+14288139%31%28%13%35%.237-0.2

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
sinker
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, -6 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +1 IVB, -14 HBslider: +1 IVB, +5 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +2 HBcurveball: -7 IVB, +14 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Houston Astros

  • Slider/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Smith (42%), Walker (40%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Smith (45%), Peña (41%).
  • Careful with Wade Jr.: 86% contact, 22% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Spencer Arrighetti

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)259.38314%22%87%39%65%10%≈ n176
2Munetaka Murakami (L)200.40031%22%60%59%54%14%▼ -12% n61
3Miguel Vargas (R)304.37218%22%81%41%66%17%≈ n182
4Colson Montgomery (L)280.32432%32%65%46%60%13%≈ n172
5Andrew Benintendi (L)271.33421%30%76%48%60%12%≈ n135
6Braden Montgomery (S)103.32516%28%81%43%61%10%≈ n189
7Tristan Peters (L)263.31418%35%81%34%62%11%≈ n142
8Chase Meidroth (R)293.29325%26%81%34%63%7%≈ n165
9Drew Romo (S)99.23527%34%68%27%48%7%≈ n50

Houston Astros bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Jeremy Peña (R)18812%38%41%.34733%75%47% n18966%14%≈ n118
2Yordan Alvarez (L)33115%21%14%.50526%84%32% n33164%20%≈ n165
3Isaac Paredes (R)31410%25%22%.31527%84%16% n31466%11%≈ n207
4Jose Altuve (R)25421%24%36%.27636%77%42% n25463%10%≈ n175
5LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)4911%5%·.28621%86%·55%9%≈ n74
6Christian Walker (R)32219%40%32%.29832%73%35% n32261%11%≈ n187
7Lucas Spence (L)1620%··.19437%62%·54%8%·
8Cam Smith (R)27617%42%45%.34229%73%32% n27762%14%▲ +7% n164
9Christian Vázquez (R)15214%31%·.24434%81%26% n15251%6%≈ n56

Houston Astros hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Jeremy Peña (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB12%
BRK38%
OFF41%

vs RHP 0.347 xwOBA, K 16% (188 PA)

2

Yordan Alvarez (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 20%

FB15%
BRK21%
OFF14%

vs RHP 0.505 xwOBA, K 18% (331 PA)

3

Isaac Paredes (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB10%
BRK25%
OFF22%

vs RHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 14% (314 PA)

4

Jose Altuve (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB21%
BRK24%
OFF36%

vs RHP 0.276 xwOBA, K 22% (254 PA)

5

LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB11%
BRK5%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.286 xwOBA, K 22% (49 PA)

6

Christian Walker (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB19%
BRK40%
OFF32%

vs RHP 0.298 xwOBA, K 24% (322 PA)

7

Lucas Spence (L)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB20%
BRK·
OFF·

only 16 PA vs RHP — too few to split

8

Cam Smith (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB17%
BRK42%
OFF45%

vs RHP 0.342 xwOBA, K 24% (276 PA)

9

Christian Vázquez (R)

P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB14%
BRK31%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.244 xwOBA, K 18% (152 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Spencer Arrighetti

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.437 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.276 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 14% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.343 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.259 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.398 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 14% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 43% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (57 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.576 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 22% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (22 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.306 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.259 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.341 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.406 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.456 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.336 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 48% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Houston Astros: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 24-for-32 against him (25% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Jeremy Peña (R)29.2 ft/s5.1% (15/294)holds-3 SS
2Yordan Alvarez (L)24.9 ft/s1.4% (3/276)holds·
3Isaac Paredes (R)25.0 ft/s0.6% (1/330)holds+0 3B
4Jose Altuve (R)27.5 ft/s3.4% (11/337)holds-5 2B
5LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)25.6 ft/s1.7% (1/101)holds·
6Christian Walker (R)25.9 ft/s0.9% (2/323)holds+2 1B
7Lucas Spence (L)··no read·
8Cam Smith (R)29.2 ft/s6.5% (17/259)occasional+5 RF
9Christian Vázquez (R)23.3 ft/s2.1% (2/129)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Christian Vázquez — runners went 67-for-85 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s9.2% (13/133)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.9% (3/119)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.4% (14/320)holds-2 3B
4Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s1.0% (1/187)holds+6 SS
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/235)holds·
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s3.7% (1/36)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.3% (4/98)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.5% (13/382)holds+4 2B
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s4.4% (1/27)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2007/2107/22 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)1817·1238p/10g24%20%.3014-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (29%)
Sean Newcomb (L)20··2197p/8g24%22%.3104-seam 95 (51%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)··28today180p/9g35%27%.2394-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 84 (29%)
Jordan Hicks (R)19·19today163p/10g26%23%.277sinker 100 (39%) · sweeper 87 (37%)
Brandon Eisert (L)···11 heavy139p/7g26%29%.3034-seam 90 (41%) · slider 84 (41%)
Chris Murphy (L)15··2111p/7g22%26%.3044-seam 97 (35%) · curveball 78 (29%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)17··299p/7g29%28%.3474-seam 97 (40%) · sweeper 86 (32%)
Bryan Hudson (L)··12today92p/6g23%22%.2954-seam 92 (60%) · sweeper 80 (39%)
Houston Astros bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2007/2107/22 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
AJ Blubaugh (R)·25·1241p/7g25%25%.3174-seam 96 (45%) · changeup 85 (26%)
Enyel De Los Santos (R)22·16today226p/13g23%27%.2924-seam 95 (46%) · slider 87 (29%)
Steven Okert (L)19·8today219p/14g27%29%.254slider 81 (65%) · 4-seam 92 (32%)
Josh Hader (L)1612·1181p/12g40%37%.189sinker 95 (62%) · slider 84 (38%)
Bryan King (L)···3167p/11g18%15%.3244-seam 92 (57%) · sweeper 81 (33%)
Nate Pearson (R)···9166p/7g19%22%.3364-seam 97 (33%) · slider 89 (27%)
Bryan Abreu (R)28·14today146p/8g28%30%.340slider 87 (47%) · 4-seam 96 (42%)
Cristian Javier (R)···389p/3g17%26%.3894-seam 94 (56%) · sweeper 82 (27%)