CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-07-25 19:04 UTC
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
2026-07-25, 7:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Sean Burke (R) against
Hunter Brown (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-24.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Sam Antonacci 67%, lowest Edgar Quero 56% (11 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. Houston Astros: 2 on back-to-back days. see bullpens
Air 78°F · 6 mph, across · air 3.9% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Hunter Brown (RHP)
732 pitches, K% 24% overall (179 BF; split withheld, short side only 83 BF)
8 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 84–99, 8 starts) · fastball -0.4 mph late (6 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%6024%
BB%216%
CSW%7229%
Whiff%7326%
Chase%725%
xwOBA vs56.310
Hard-hit%5138%
GB%9254%
1st-pitch strike%755%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.8
recent starts, K (n=5)
406/22 TOR
406/28 DET
307/04 TB
407/10 TEX
407/19 BAL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
244
44%
22%
95.9
+17
-7
2251
22%
27%
14%
32%
40%
.217
-0.9
sinker
205
15%
42%
95.5
+11
-15
2132
12%
28%
32%
18%
56%
.369
-0.2
knuckle-curve
152
22%
19%
83.0
-17
+6
2553
33%
30%
31%
31%
24%
.268
+0.1
changeup
69
16%
2%
87.1
+5
-13
1428
58%
41%
33%
6%
·
.413
+1.6
slider
62
3%
15%
89.9
+4
+4
2254
23%
23%
20%
13%
44%
.377
+2.8
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsinkerknuckle-curve
Movement
How to attack
Vs righties he leans sinker (42% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the sinker early: 32% of his first pitches, only 12% whiffs, 44% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 58% whiffs, only 35% of them are strikes.
Sean Burke (RHP)
1807 pitches, K% 26% vs LHB (286 BF) / 26% vs RHB (176 BF)
20 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–96, 16 starts) · fastball -0.1 mph late (17 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7326%
BB%647%
CSW%7829%
Whiff%4222%
Chase%7332%
xwOBA vs72.293
Hard-hit%7035%
GB%2337%
1st-pitch strike%7064%
recent starts, K (n=5)
606/23 CLE
806/29 BAL
1107/04 CLE
907/10 ATH
507/19 TOR
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
674
40%
33%
94.8
+19
-5
2578
22%
27%
36%
49%
44%
.285
-1.2
knuckle-curve
382
26%
13%
79.7
-14
+5
2448
25%
32%
28%
23%
41%
.257
-0.2
slider
320
10%
31%
86.9
+4
+5
2516
31%
37%
32%
16%
39%
.292
-0.5
sinker
275
12%
20%
94.7
+15
-13
2397
8%
21%
30%
9%
47%
.345
+0.6
cutter
112
8%
2%
90.7
+11
+3
2659
27%
33%
38%
1%
·
.292
-1.2
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamknuckle-curveslider
Movement
Attack plan vs Houston Astros
Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Trammell (55%), Smith (42%).
Careful with Wade Jr.: 87% contact, 21% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Hunter Brown
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
263
.386
14%
22%
87%
39%
67%
11%
≈ n184
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
203
.400
31%
22%
60%
58%
57%
14%
≈ n69
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
307
.373
18%
22%
81%
40%
65%
17%
≈ n185
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
283
.321
32%
32%
65%
46%
58%
14%
≈ n178
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
274
.333
22%
30%
76%
48%
59%
11%
≈ n140
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
107
.326
16%
28%
81%
42%
63%
8%
≈ n193
7
Tristan Peters (L)
267
.315
18%
35%
81%
34%
62%
11%
≈ n149
8
Chase Meidroth (R)
297
.295
25%
27%
81%
34%
62%
10%
≈ n166
9
Edgar Quero (S)
108
.258
25%
26%
76%
36%
56%
10%
·
Houston Astros bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Lineup projected from recent starts; the posted order replaces it once teams announce. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
Jeremy Peña (R)
192
12%
38%
38%
.345
34%
75%
47% n193
·
·
≈ n132
Yordan Alvarez (L)
335
16%
21%
15%
.503
26%
83%
32% n335
·
·
≈ n167
Jose Altuve (R)
259
20%
25%
36%
.280
35%
77%
42% n259
·
·
≈ n176
Isaac Paredes (R)
319
10%
25%
22%
.315
26%
84%
16% n319
·
·
≈ n203
Christian Walker (R)
325
19%
39%
32%
.296
32%
73%
36% n325
·
·
≈ n189
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
53
10%
5%
·
.285
20%
87%
·
·
·
≈ n80
Cam Smith (R)
279
17%
42%
44%
.338
29%
73%
32% n280
·
·
≈ n161
Yainer Diaz (R)
138
17%
20%
20%
.330
41%
82%
43% n138
·
·
≈ n115
Taylor Trammell (L)
113
30%
55%
25%
.304
29%
65%
34% n113
·
·
≈ n90
Houston Astros hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
No batter probabilities are published for this game yet — those publish once the lineup posts.
Jeremy Peña (R)
FB12%
BRK38%
OFF38%
vs RHP 0.345 xwOBA, K 16% (192 PA)
Yordan Alvarez (L)
FB16%
BRK21%
OFF15%
vs RHP 0.503 xwOBA, K 18% (335 PA)
Jose Altuve (R)
FB20%
BRK25%
OFF36%
vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 22% (259 PA)
Isaac Paredes (R)
FB10%
BRK25%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 14% (319 PA)
Christian Walker (R)
FB19%
BRK39%
OFF32%
vs RHP 0.296 xwOBA, K 24% (325 PA)
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
FB10%
BRK5%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 21% (53 PA)
Cam Smith (R)
FB17%
BRK42%
OFF44%
vs RHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 24% (279 PA)
Yainer Diaz (R)
FB17%
BRK20%
OFF20%
vs RHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 14% (138 PA)
Taylor Trammell (L)
FB30%
BRK55%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.304 xwOBA, K 35% (113 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Hunter Brown
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.437 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.275 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 23% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (18 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.714 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 23% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 43% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (58 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.428 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (25 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.419 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Tristan Peters
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.390 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Edgar Quero
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Houston Astros: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 62-for-78 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
Jeremy Peña (R)
29.2 ft/s
5.0% (15/300)
holds
-3 SS
Yordan Alvarez (L)
24.9 ft/s
1.4% (3/278)
holds
·
Jose Altuve (R)
27.5 ft/s
3.4% (11/339)
holds
-5 2B
Isaac Paredes (R)
25.0 ft/s
0.6% (1/332)
holds
+0 3B
Christian Walker (R)
25.9 ft/s
0.9% (2/323)
holds
+2 1B
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
25.6 ft/s
1.7% (1/103)
holds
·
Cam Smith (R)
29.2 ft/s
6.4% (17/261)
occasional
+5 RF
Yainer Diaz (R)
25.8 ft/s
1.2% (2/240)
holds
·
Taylor Trammell (L)
27.0 ft/s
8.0% (7/81)
occasional
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Yainer Diaz — runners went 98-for-120 against him (18% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.6% (14/137)
occasional
-5 LF
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.9% (3/120)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.4% (14/324)
holds
-2 3B
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.0% (1/187)
holds
+6 SS
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/236)
holds
·
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
3.4% (1/40)
holds
·
7
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.2% (4/101)
holds
+9 CF
8
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.5% (13/383)
holds
+4 2B
9
Edgar Quero (S)
24.1 ft/s
0.9% (1/207)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.