CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-07-26 17:34 UTC
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
2026-07-26, 2:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Erick Fedde (R) against
Ronel Blanco (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-25.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Their bats highest board probability Yordan Alvarez 23%. see the grid
2Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 69%, lowest Drew Romo 49% (20 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days. Houston Astros: 2 on back-to-back days. see bullpens
Run environment board total 9.02, P(over 8.5) 51%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 85°F · 4 mph, across · air 5.4% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Ronel Blanco (RHP)limited 2026 sample
86 pitches, K% 42% overall (19 BF; split withheld, short side only 4 BF)
1 apps · median 19 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exit pitch count withheld, only 1 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%10042%
BB%216%
CSW%6328%
Whiff%9331%
Chase%10047%
xwOBA vs2.388
Hard-hit%·
GB%·
1st-pitch strike%·
published K forecast: E[K] 5.8
recent starts, K (n=1)
807/20 MIA
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
changeup
26
33%
15%
84.7
+6
-14
1518
44%
38%
59%
26%
·
·
·
curveball
26
30%
31%
80.5
-2
+9
2229
55%
38%
35%
37%
·
·
·
4-seam
24
29%
23%
94.0
+19
-8
2328
7%
12%
·
23%
·
·
·
slider
10
8%
31%
86.8
+8
+1
2163
·
10%
·
14%
·
·
·
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
changeupcurveball4-seam
Movement
How to attack
Lay off the curveball below the zone: 55% whiffs, only 35% of them are strikes.
Hunt the 4-seam: 28% usage, only 7% whiffs, 46% in-zone (all counts).
Vs righties he leans slider (31% of pitches to that side).
Erick Fedde (RHP)
1598 pitches, K% 16% vs LHB (224 BF) / 17% vs RHB (182 BF)
20 apps · median 21 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 80 pitches (IQR 75–89, 10 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (4 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1116%
BB%498%
CSW%1825%
Whiff%1118%
Chase%424%
xwOBA vs32.331
Hard-hit%4439%
GB%3639%
1st-pitch strike%8566%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.1
recent starts, K (n=5)
205/12 KC
205/17 CHC
206/03 MIN
306/30 BAL
607/20 TEX
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sweeper
590
31%
45%
81.9
+1
+16
2520
21%
28%
32%
43%
39%
.298
-0.9
sinker
470
25%
35%
94.0
+8
-9
2060
13%
27%
16%
25%
44%
.345
+0.1
cutter
299
21%
16%
90.7
+7
+3
2143
15%
25%
21%
13%
44%
.396
+1.4
changeup
210
21%
2%
88.7
+3
-10
1843
25%
16%
25%
14%
21%
.301
+3.3
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
sweepersinkercutter
Movement
Attack plan vs Houston Astros
Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Trammell (55%), Dezenzo (42%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Smith (44%), Peña (40%).
Careful with Wade Jr.: 84% contact, 21% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Ronel Blanco
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
266
.383
14%
22%
87%
39%
69%
12%
≈ n177
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
206
.398
31%
22%
60%
58%
61%
15%
≈ n79
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
310
.371
18%
22%
81%
40%
69%
16%
≈ n183
4
Braden Montgomery (S)
110
.323
16%
29%
80%
43%
65%
8%
≈ n195
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
277
.330
22%
30%
75%
48%
57%
11%
≈ n137
6
Tristan Peters (L)
270
.321
18%
35%
81%
35%
61%
12%
≈ n154
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
300
.294
25%
27%
81%
34%
62%
10%
≈ n161
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
98
.288
22%
33%
75%
34%
53%
7%
≈ n39
9
Drew Romo (S)
103
.235
26%
34%
69%
25%
49%
7%
≈ n45
Houston Astros bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
196
12%
38%
40%
.347
34%
75%
47% n197
63%
15%
≈ n129
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
339
16%
21%
16%
.500
26%
83%
32% n339
68%
23%
≈ n165
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
323
11%
26%
21%
.316
26%
84%
16% n323
70%
14%
≈ n206
4
Jose Altuve (R)
263
20%
25%
35%
.280
36%
77%
43% n263
65%
13%
≈ n179
5
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
56
12%
12%
·
.276
21%
84%
·
59%
10%
≈ n88
6
Yainer Diaz (R)
141
16%
20%
19%
.323
41%
82%
42% n141
66%
13%
≈ n109
7
Taylor Trammell (L)
114
30%
55%
29%
.301
29%
64%
34% n114
55%
11%
≈ n95
8
Cam Smith (R)
282
17%
42%
44%
.339
29%
73%
32% n283
68%
16%
≈ n164
9
Zach Dezenzo (R)
47
26%
42%
·
.233
32%
67%
·
51%
9%
≈ n47
Houston Astros hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB12%
BRK38%
OFF40%
vs RHP 0.347 xwOBA, K 16% (196 PA)
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 23%
FB16%
BRK21%
OFF16%
vs RHP 0.500 xwOBA, K 18% (339 PA)
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB11%
BRK26%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 14% (323 PA)
4
Jose Altuve (R)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB20%
BRK25%
OFF35%
vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 21% (263 PA)
5
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB12%
BRK12%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.276 xwOBA, K 21% (56 PA)
6
Yainer Diaz (R)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB16%
BRK20%
OFF19%
vs RHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 14% (141 PA)
7
Taylor Trammell (L)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB30%
BRK55%
OFF29%
vs RHP 0.301 xwOBA, K 35% (114 PA)
8
Cam Smith (R)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB17%
BRK42%
OFF44%
vs RHP 0.339 xwOBA, K 24% (282 PA)
9
Zach Dezenzo (R)
P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB26%
BRK42%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.233 xwOBA, K 43% (47 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Ronel Blanco
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.481 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.714 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.473 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — where this pitcher lives, 23% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.378 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 49% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Houston Astros: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 25-for-33 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
29.2 ft/s
5.0% (15/303)
holds
-3 SS
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
24.9 ft/s
1.4% (3/280)
holds
·
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
25.0 ft/s
0.6% (1/334)
holds
+0 3B
4
Jose Altuve (R)
27.5 ft/s
3.4% (11/339)
holds
-5 2B
5
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
25.6 ft/s
1.6% (1/106)
holds
·
6
Yainer Diaz (R)
25.8 ft/s
1.2% (2/240)
holds
·
7
Taylor Trammell (L)
27.0 ft/s
8.0% (7/81)
occasional
·
8
Cam Smith (R)
29.2 ft/s
6.4% (17/262)
occasional
+5 RF
9
Zach Dezenzo (R)
27.8 ft/s
3.6% (2/64)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Yainer Diaz — runners went 98-for-120 against him (18% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.6% (14/137)
occasional
-5 LF
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.8% (3/123)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.4% (14/324)
holds
-2 3B
4
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
3.4% (1/41)
holds
·
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/236)
holds
·
6
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.0% (4/106)
holds
+9 CF
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.5% (13/383)
holds
+4 2B
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.5% (28/156)
runner
-3 SS
9
Drew Romo (S)
26.1 ft/s
4.3% (1/28)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.