CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-07-27 22:03 UTC
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
2026-07-27, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
Noah Schultz (L) against
Max Fried (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-26.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Their bats highest board probability Ben Rice 19%. see the grid
2Run environment board total 8.68, P(over 8.5) 47%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
3Pen posture Us: no flags. New York Yankees: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 63%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 50% (14 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Their starterMax Fried, board E[K] 5.1 — 11 apps, median 24 BF.
Air 79°F · 9 mph blowing in from center · air 4.4% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Max Fried (LHP)
974 pitches, K% 22% overall (256 BF; split withheld, short side only 61 BF)
11 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 93 pitches (IQR 88–97, 11 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (7 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%4722%
BB%598%
CSW%6128%
Whiff%5223%
Chase%4830%
xwOBA vs98.247
Hard-hit%9331%
GB%8651%
1st-pitch strike%453%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.1
recent starts, K (n=5)
504/27 TEX
605/03 BAL
505/08 MIL
205/13 BAL
707/22 PIT
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
cutter
221
5%
28%
92.0
+7
-2
2288
25%
27%
37%
16%
46%
.254
-3.2
sinker
214
45%
15%
93.2
+4
+11
2094
16%
26%
26%
15%
53%
.257
-1.9
4-seam
170
16%
18%
94.9
+17
+4
2124
22%
30%
25%
24%
43%
.249
-0.2
curveball
134
9%
15%
73.9
-17
-11
2839
23%
31%
17%
17%
41%
.233
-0.8
changeup
131
0%
17%
85.5
+5
+15
1678
31%
27%
49%
21%
27%
.255
-1.7
sweeper
94
21%
6%
79.9
-1
-19
2777
19%
28%
13%
5%
·
.220
-2.0
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
cuttersinker4-seam
Movement
How to attack
Vs lefties he leans sinker (45% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the sinker early: 26% of his first pitches, only 16% whiffs, 53% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 31% whiffs, only 28% of them are strikes.
Noah Schultz (LHP)
985 pitches, K% 19% overall (254 BF; split withheld, short side only 52 BF)
12 apps · median 21 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 78–87, 12 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2919%
BB%1711%
CSW%3226%
Whiff%2019%
Chase%1727%
xwOBA vs5.377
Hard-hit%4140%
GB%2337%
1st-pitch strike%3960%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
105/24 SF
707/01 BAL
307/07 BOS
407/12 ATH
207/21 TEX
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
242
14%
27%
95.2
+11
+11
2467
20%
26%
29%
34%
40%
.321
+0.5
sinker
235
38%
20%
95.1
+7
+18
2454
7%
26%
17%
11%
62%
.430
+0.9
sweeper
205
27%
19%
82.6
+1
-14
2808
29%
29%
29%
25%
39%
.419
+2.7
cutter
196
21%
20%
89.7
+9
-3
2645
18%
28%
23%
10%
50%
.390
-0.5
changeup
101
0%
13%
89.1
+3
+17
1979
25%
16%
39%
18%
22%
.305
+4.5
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamsinkersweeper
Movement
Attack plan vs New York Yankees
Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Chisholm Jr. (38%), Caballero (32%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Schuemann (67%), Domínguez (43%).
Careful with Goldschmidt: 81% contact, 21% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Max Fried
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Randal Grichuk (R)
102
.369
26%
39%
79%
49%
57%
15%
≈ n94
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
89
.327
37%
21%
59%
60%
59%
17%
≈ n86
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
135
.442
15%
22%
86%
58%
63%
16%
≈ n191
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
126
.330
31%
35%
68%
36%
60%
13%
≈ n179
5
Chase Meidroth (R)
119
.303
21%
29%
86%
38%
62%
9%
≈ n168
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
41
.256
29%
34%
67%
32%
61%
7%
≈ n201
7
Everson Pereira (R)
25
.328
32%
37%
63%
38%
57%
8%
·
8
Edgar Quero (S)
68
.276
21%
28%
87%
32%
55%
9%
≈ n20
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
71
.276
14%
36%
77%
45%
50%
6%
≈ n47
New York Yankees bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Max Schuemann (R)
35
15%
·
67%
.335
21%
72%
·
56%
13%
≈ n47
2
Ben Rice (L)
146
21%
29%
·
.341
30%
74%
36% n146
68%
19%
≈ n176
3
Paul Goldschmidt (R)
127
15%
21%
26%
.379
27%
81%
25% n127
67%
19%
≈ n140
4
Jasson Domínguez (S)
68
14%
29%
43%
.283
36%
76%
·
64%
12%
▲ +4% n183
5
Anthony Volpe (R)
73
22%
15%
37%
.323
23%
77%
·
57%
6%
≈ n94
6
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)
125
30%
38%
·
.218
32%
66%
35% n125
58%
19%
≈ n154
7
José Caballero (R)
109
26%
32%
24%
.272
36%
73%
34% n109
62%
14%
≈ n170
8
Spencer Jones (L)
14
31%
·
·
·
29%
57%
·
51%
8%
≈ n44
9
Ali Sánchez (R)
24
38%
·
·
.366
24%
73%
·
53%
4%
▲ +8% n49
New York Yankees hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Max Schuemann (R)
P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB15%
BRK·
OFF67%
only 35 PA vs LHP — too few to split
2
Ben Rice (L)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 19%
FB21%
BRK29%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.341 xwOBA, K 26% (146 PA)
3
Paul Goldschmidt (R)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 19%
FB15%
BRK21%
OFF26%
vs LHP 0.379 xwOBA, K 21% (127 PA)
4
Jasson Domínguez (S)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB14%
BRK29%
OFF43%
vs LHP 0.283 xwOBA, K 21% (68 PA)
5
Anthony Volpe (R)
P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB22%
BRK15%
OFF37%
vs LHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 21% (73 PA)
6
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)
P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 19%
FB30%
BRK38%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.218 xwOBA, K 36% (125 PA)
7
José Caballero (R)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB26%
BRK32%
OFF24%
vs LHP 0.272 xwOBA, K 32% (109 PA)
8
Spencer Jones (L)
P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB31%
BRK·
OFF·
only 14 PA vs LHP — too few to split
9
Ali Sánchez (R)
P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 4%
FB38%
BRK·
OFF·
only 24 PA vs LHP — too few to split
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Max Fried
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.695 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 38% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (31 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.461 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Everson Pereira
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Edgar Quero
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
New York Yankees: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 62-for-78 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Max Schuemann (R)
27.7 ft/s
7.7% (12/149)
occasional
·
2
Ben Rice (L)
26.7 ft/s
1.0% (2/286)
holds
-5 1B
3
Paul Goldschmidt (R)
25.4 ft/s
2.6% (6/256)
holds
+4 1B
4
Jasson Domínguez (S)
28.5 ft/s
10.5% (23/209)
occasional
·
5
Anthony Volpe (R)
28.5 ft/s
8.9% (21/227)
occasional
+6 SS
6
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)
28.4 ft/s
14.9% (48/309)
runner
+9 2B
7
José Caballero (R)
28.0 ft/s
22.0% (56/239)
runner
-3 SS
8
Spencer Jones (L)
28.5 ft/s
1.9% (0/36)
holds
·
9
Ali Sánchez (R)
25.6 ft/s
2.5% (0/22)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.7% (1/101)
holds
·
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.8% (3/124)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.4% (14/324)
holds
-2 3B
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.0% (1/189)
holds
+6 SS
5
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.5% (13/386)
holds
+4 2B
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
3.3% (1/43)
holds
·
7
Everson Pereira (R)
27.6 ft/s
4.8% (2/44)
holds
·
8
Edgar Quero (S)
24.1 ft/s
0.9% (1/207)
holds
·
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.4% (28/157)
runner
-3 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.