New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

2026-07-28, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Anthony Kay (L) against Gerrit Cole (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-27.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Gerrit Cole (RHP)

967 pitches, K% 26% overall (255 BF; split withheld, short side only 90 BF)

11 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 84–92, 11 starts) · fastball +0.1 mph late (6 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7326%
BB%955%
CSW%7329%
Whiff%2420%
Chase%4129%
xwOBA vs72.294
Hard-hit%3141%
GB%933%
1st-pitch strike%8967%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
506/27
BOS
707/03
MIN
607/08
TB
807/17
LAD
1107/22
PIT

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam42644%48%96.9+17-10233420%31%27%50%56%.285-1.1
slider18515%28%89.5+3+4249925%30%31%18%40%.271-0.2
changeup14622%3%86.4+9-15195520%19%33%16%29%.256+0.3
knuckle-curve12414%11%83.0-14+12282520%35%24%11%43%.291+1.3
sinker574%10%96.1+11-1623198%32%35%5%·.546+2.3

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
slider
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +17 IVB, -10 HBslider: +3 IVB, +4 HBchangeup: +9 IVB, -15 HBknuckle-curve: -14 IVB, +12 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -16 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs lefties he leans changeup (22% of pitches to that side).
  • Hunt the changeup: 16% usage, only 20% whiffs, 38% in-zone (all counts).

Anthony Kay (LHP)

1797 pitches, K% 18% overall (445 BF; split withheld, short side only 115 BF)

21 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 85–92, 19 starts) · fastball -0.9 mph late (11 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%1918%
BB%399%
CSW%1925%
Whiff%4022%
Chase%7433%
xwOBA vs14.354
Hard-hit%4639%
GB%5543%
1st-pitch strike%1958%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.8
recent starts, K (n=5)
206/28
KC
207/03
CLE
407/09
BOS
507/17
TOR
407/22
TEX

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam42216%26%95.8+15+7233916%24%33%28%44%.370+0.6
sweeper39533%18%82.6-0-13243136%33%24%18%29%.320+0.8
sinker31531%13%95.1+5+16224515%26%38%12%58%.397+0.3
cutter30313%18%91.3+7-2237619%24%29%10%22%.438+0.1
changeup2620%20%86.0+0+14170225%16%36%18%18%.270+0.5
slider1006%5%86.1-4-4253933%23%43%14%20%.261+1.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sweeper
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsweeper: -0 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -2 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs New York Yankees

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Wells (42%), Rosario (42%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Schuemann (63%), Domínguez (42%).
  • Careful with Grisham: 83% contact, 18% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Gerrit Cole

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)270.38514%22%88%39%66%12%n175
2Munetaka Murakami (L)211.40830%22%60%59%59%22%n94
3Miguel Vargas (R)315.37318%22%81%41%66%19%n195
4Colson Montgomery (L)287.31732%32%65%45%59%16%n179
5Andrew Benintendi (L)281.32623%30%75%48%56%8%n139
6Braden Montgomery (S)115.32617%29%79%42%63%8%n197
7Tristan Peters (L)275.31718%35%81%35%61%11%n159
8Chase Meidroth (R)306.29325%27%81%34%62%10%n170
9Drew Romo (S)107.24425%33%69%26%46%6%n58

New York Yankees bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Paul Goldschmidt (R)13016%21%27%.38028%80%25% n13069%25%n140
2Ben Rice (L)14921%29%·.34530%74%36% n14969%22%n184
3Amed Rosario (R)11112%42%31%.29435%75%28% n11154%11%n81
4Jasson Domínguez (S)7115%28%42%.27936%76%·63%13%n185
5Trent Grisham (L)927%31%·.31817%83%·67%14%n148
6Anthony Volpe (R)7621%15%35%.33023%78%·58%8%n93
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)12829%37%·.22131%67%35% n12862%19%n154
8Max Schuemann (R)3911%·63%.32821%76%·58%12%n61
9Austin Wells (L)7117%42%·.24034%72%·52%15%n90

New York Yankees hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Paul Goldschmidt (R)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 25%

FB16%
BRK21%
OFF27%

vs LHP 0.380 xwOBA, K 21% (130 PA)

2

Ben Rice (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 22%

FB21%
BRK29%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.345 xwOBA, K 26% (149 PA)

3

Amed Rosario (R)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB12%
BRK42%
OFF31%

vs LHP 0.294 xwOBA, K 23% (111 PA)

4

Jasson Domínguez (S)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB15%
BRK28%
OFF42%

vs LHP 0.279 xwOBA, K 21% (71 PA)

5

Trent Grisham (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB7%
BRK31%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 18% (92 PA)

6

Anthony Volpe (R)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB21%
BRK15%
OFF35%

vs LHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 20% (76 PA)

7

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 19%

FB29%
BRK37%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.221 xwOBA, K 36% (128 PA)

8

Max Schuemann (R)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB11%
BRK·
OFF63%

only 39 PA vs LHP — too few to split

9

Austin Wells (L)

P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB17%
BRK42%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.240 xwOBA, K 27% (71 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Gerrit Cole

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.429 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (21 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.692 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (17 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 22% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.545 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 19% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 43% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (59 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.576 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.359 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.473 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.390 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.432 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 46% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

New York Yankees: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 25-for-33 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4 ft/s2.5% (6/259)holds+4 1B
2Ben Rice (L)26.7 ft/s1.0% (2/290)holds-5 1B
3Amed Rosario (R)28.5 ft/s2.4% (2/106)holds·
4Jasson Domínguez (S)28.5 ft/s10.4% (23/211)occasional·
5Trent Grisham (L)26.7 ft/s2.7% (9/351)holds-2 CF
6Anthony Volpe (R)28.5 ft/s8.9% (21/228)occasional+6 SS
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.4 ft/s15.2% (49/310)runner+9 2B
8Max Schuemann (R)27.7 ft/s7.7% (12/149)occasional·
9Austin Wells (L)25.7 ft/s1.9% (3/199)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s9.5% (14/139)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.7% (3/129)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.4% (14/324)holds-2 3B
4Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s1.0% (1/195)holds+6 SS
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/237)holds·
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s3.2% (1/44)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (4/106)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.5% (13/387)holds+4 2B
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s4.1% (1/30)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2507/2607/27 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)33·29today315p/12g26%23%.2854-seam 92 (59%) · changeup 80 (31%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)15··2203p/5g11%21%.3424-seam 94 (43%) · slider 88 (35%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·2519today B2B196p/9g23%22%.3144-seam 95 (52%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)·17·1180p/9g35%27%.2384-seam 98 (39%) · curveball 83 (29%)
Chris Murphy (L)·1815today B2B170p/10g22%27%.3014-seam 97 (36%) · curveball 78 (28%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·17·1162p/10g26%23%.282sinker 100 (39%) · sweeper 86 (36%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)·1313today B2B144p/10g28%28%.3474-seam 97 (44%) · sweeper 85 (32%)
Bryan Hudson (L)··24today142p/8g23%22%.2974-seam 93 (61%) · sweeper 80 (36%)
New York Yankees bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2507/2607/27 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Brent Headrick (L)··14today219p/14g29%31%.2784-seam 95 (44%) · slider 85 (35%)
Paul Blackburn (R)24·10today214p/12g19%20%.290sinker 94 (33%) · changeup 87 (29%)
Fernando Cruz (R)··21today192p/11g29%39%.279splitter 80 (57%) · 4-seam 93 (28%)
David Bednar (R)16·5today183p/10g27%28%.2584-seam 96 (45%) · splitter 91 (42%)
Camilo Doval (R)·1220today B2B174p/9g22%23%.300sinker 99 (41%) · slider 89 (28%)
Ryan Yarbrough (L)·51·1 heavy156p/6g16%21%.284sweeper 72 (23%) · sinker 87 (21%)
Tim Hill (L)·186today B2B143p/11g11%10%.334sinker 88 (80%) · slider 76 (17%)
Angel Chivilli (R)6·13today135p/9g25%32%.275slider 91 (44%) · changeup 90 (39%)