CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-07-29 22:03 UTC

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

2026-07-29, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Davis Martin (R) against Cam Schlittler (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-28.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Cam Schlittler (RHP)

2020 pitches, K% 33% vs LHB (312 BF) / 27% vs RHB (203 BF)

22 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 94 pitches (IQR 85–99, 22 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (17 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%9430%
BB%945%
CSW%6128%
Whiff%6625%
Chase%9035%
xwOBA vs91.269
Hard-hit%4439%
GB%5744%
1st-pitch strike%6864%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.9
recent starts, K (n=5)
506/30
DET
807/06
TB
607/11
WSH
807/19
LAD
1207/24
PHI

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam89350%35%97.8+17-5250331%31%38%45%39%.242-1.7
cutter54227%26%94.6+10+6256320%25%35%23%44%.303-0.3
sinker39813%31%97.7+11-14233413%26%32%21%53%.258-1.5
curveball15510%4%85.4-11+6253337%29%33%9%21%.339+0.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
cutter
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +17 IVB, -5 HBcutter: +10 IVB, +6 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -14 HBcurveball: -11 IVB, +6 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Lay off the curveball below the zone: 37% whiffs, only 32% of them are strikes.
  • Vs righties he leans sinker (31% of pitches to that side).
  • Hunt the sinker early: 22% of his first pitches, only 13% whiffs, 58% in-zone on 0-0.

Davis Martin (RHP)

1780 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (268 BF) / 24% vs RHB (195 BF)

20 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 85–93, 20 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (14 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4322%
BB%677%
CSW%3126%
Whiff%4222%
Chase%7533%
xwOBA vs46.320
Hard-hit%1544%
GB%5543%
1st-pitch strike%1457%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.7
recent starts, K (n=5)
306/27
KC
007/02
CLE
207/08
BOS
507/18
TOR
307/24
HOU

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam45429%22%94.1+14-5241321%24%28%30%42%.310+0.4
sinker32615%24%92.8+8-1423977%22%26%12%60%.352-1.6
changeup24718%8%90.3+1-14212213%19%38%16%40%.325-2.3
slider2435%27%87.2+1+5260338%30%48%20%26%.252-0.3
curveball24016%10%81.8-8+14287938%30%29%13%33%.241-0.1
cutter23816%9%89.7+7+2257725%32%29%9%56%.419+0.2

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sinker
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, -5 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +1 IVB, -14 HBslider: +1 IVB, +5 HBcurveball: -8 IVB, +14 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +2 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs New York Yankees

  • Slider/curveball: top breaking whiffs are McMahon (41%), Jones (41%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Jones (55%), Wells (47%).
  • Careful with Grisham: 84% contact, 15% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Cam Schlittler

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)273.38314%22%88%39%59%12%≈ n176
2Munetaka Murakami (L)214.40731%22%60%59%56%20%≈ n101
3Miguel Vargas (R)318.37218%22%81%41%63%17%≈ n197
4Colson Montgomery (L)290.31332%32%65%45%58%14%≈ n178
5Andrew Benintendi (L)285.32423%30%75%47%54%8%≈ n138
6Braden Montgomery (S)119.33417%28%78%42%58%8%≈ n196
7Tristan Peters (L)279.31318%35%81%34%57%10%≈ n160
8Chase Meidroth (R)310.29425%27%81%34%60%11%≈ n171
9Drew Romo (S)110.23725%33%69%25%46%8%≈ n60

New York Yankees bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Trent Grisham (L)24911%21%27%.35518%84%28% n25062%13%≈ n157
2Ben Rice (L)28614%29%30%.40324%78%30% n28664%21%≈ n186
3Jasson Domínguez (S)11310%24%38%.30237%79%39% n11364%12%≈ n183
4Paul Goldschmidt (R)16628%28%29%.25840%72%40% n16660%15%▼ -8% n135
5Spencer Jones (L)7539%41%55%.28535%59%·49%9%▼ -13% n49
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26518%36%35%.33128%74%29% n26663%16%≈ n162
7Ryan McMahon (L)19622%41%33%.31030%71%29% n19855%15%≈ n89
8José Caballero (R)21717%31%23%.26436%78%29% n21761%10%≈ n167
9Austin Wells (L)16715%41%47%.33327%72%35% n16754%13%≈ n91

New York Yankees hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Trent Grisham (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB11%
BRK21%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.355 xwOBA, K 15% (249 PA)

2

Ben Rice (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 21%

FB14%
BRK29%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.403 xwOBA, K 23% (286 PA)

3

Jasson Domínguez (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB10%
BRK24%
OFF38%

vs RHP 0.302 xwOBA, K 19% (113 PA)

4

Paul Goldschmidt (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB28%
BRK28%
OFF29%

vs RHP 0.258 xwOBA, K 27% (166 PA)

5

Spencer Jones (L)

P(1+ hit) 49% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB39%
BRK41%
OFF55%

vs RHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 41% (75 PA)

6

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB18%
BRK36%
OFF35%

vs RHP 0.331 xwOBA, K 28% (265 PA)

7

Ryan McMahon (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB22%
BRK41%
OFF33%

vs RHP 0.310 xwOBA, K 31% (196 PA)

8

José Caballero (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB17%
BRK31%
OFF23%

vs RHP 0.264 xwOBA, K 20% (217 PA)

9

Austin Wells (L)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB15%
BRK41%
OFF47%

vs RHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 26% (167 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Cam Schlittler

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.437 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 25% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (23 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.706 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 12% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (16 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.507 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 25% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (62 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (24 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.419 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 20% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +9 points. (21 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.378 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 46% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

New York Yankees: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 26-for-34 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Trent Grisham (L)26.7 ft/s2.7% (9/354)holds-2 CF
2Ben Rice (L)26.7 ft/s1.0% (2/291)holds-5 1B
3Jasson Domínguez (S)28.5 ft/s10.2% (23/215)occasional·
4Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4 ft/s2.5% (6/262)holds+4 1B
5Spencer Jones (L)28.5 ft/s1.9% (0/36)holds·
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.4 ft/s15.1% (49/311)runner+9 2B
7Ryan McMahon (L)25.9 ft/s2.2% (5/254)holds+2 3B
8José Caballero (R)28.0 ft/s21.9% (56/240)runner-3 SS
9Austin Wells (L)25.7 ft/s1.9% (3/199)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s9.5% (14/139)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.7% (3/129)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.3% (14/327)holds-2 3B
4Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s1.0% (1/195)holds+6 SS
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/238)holds·
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s3.0% (1/48)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (4/106)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.5% (13/387)holds+4 2B
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s4.0% (1/32)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2607/2707/28 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·29·1315p/12g26%23%.2854-seam 92 (59%) · changeup 80 (31%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)··38today heavy241p/6g11%20%.3534-seam 94 (45%) · slider 88 (35%)
Jordan Hicks (R)17·12today174p/11g27%24%.281sinker 100 (38%) · sweeper 86 (35%)
Chris Murphy (L)1815·1170p/10g22%27%.3014-seam 97 (36%) · curveball 78 (28%)
Sean Newcomb (L)2519·1166p/8g23%22%.3144-seam 95 (51%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Grant Taylor (R)17··2161p/8g35%27%.2384-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 83 (29%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)1313·1144p/10g28%28%.3474-seam 97 (44%) · sweeper 85 (32%)
Bryan Hudson (L)·24·1142p/8g23%22%.2974-seam 93 (61%) · sweeper 80 (36%)
New York Yankees bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2607/2707/28 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Paul Blackburn (R)·10·1210p/11g19%20%.290sinker 94 (32%) · changeup 87 (29%)
David Bednar (R)·525today B2B208p/11g28%29%.2624-seam 96 (44%) · splitter 91 (43%)
Brent Headrick (L)·145today B2B207p/14g29%30%.2784-seam 95 (44%) · slider 85 (33%)
Fernando Cruz (R)·21·1192p/11g29%39%.279splitter 80 (57%) · 4-seam 93 (28%)
Camilo Doval (R)1220·1165p/8g22%23%.300sinker 99 (42%) · slider 89 (27%)
Ryan Yarbrough (L)51··2 heavy156p/6g16%21%.284sweeper 72 (23%) · sinker 87 (21%)
Tim Hill (L)186·1143p/11g11%10%.334sinker 88 (80%) · slider 76 (17%)
Angel Chivilli (R)·138today B2B143p/10g24%32%.264slider 91 (43%) · changeup 90 (40%)