New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

2026-07-30, 2:10 PM ET, Rate Field. Sean Burke (R) against Ryan Weathers (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-29.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Ryan Weathers (LHP)

1814 pitches, K% 27% overall (456 BF; split withheld, short side only 106 BF)

20 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 88–97, 20 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7927%
BB%767%
CSW%8730%
Whiff%7426%
Chase%5330%
xwOBA vs37.327
Hard-hit%2642%
GB%6846%
1st-pitch strike%3159%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.6
recent starts, K (n=5)
306/29
DET
607/05
MIN
607/10
WSH
507/20
PIT
707/25
PHI

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam46320%27%95.8+15+11237816%24%21%26%45%.425+2.1
changeup4457%29%85.7+1+12193336%27%40%31%24%.245-0.2
sweeper36326%18%81.3+1-13262440%39%23%15%40%.266-0.4
sinker32626%16%94.2+9+1822737%28%26%10%55%.388-0.4
slider21621%9%87.1+1-4265137%37%41%19%44%.268-0.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
changeup
sweeper

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +11 HBchangeup: +1 IVB, +12 HBsweeper: +1 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +9 IVB, +18 HBslider: +1 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 29% of his first pitches, only 16% whiffs, 52% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Vs righties he leans changeup (29% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the changeup below the zone: 36% whiffs, only 32% of them are strikes.

Sean Burke (RHP)

1909 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (294 BF) / 27% vs RHB (192 BF)

21 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–98, 17 starts) · fastball -0.1 mph late (18 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7927%
BB%677%
CSW%7829%
Whiff%4623%
Chase%7533%
xwOBA vs78.289
Hard-hit%7235%
GB%2738%
1st-pitch strike%7064%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.7
recent starts, K (n=5)
806/29
BAL
1107/04
CLE
907/10
ATH
507/19
TOR
1007/25
HOU

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam70940%33%94.9+19-5258223%28%37%49%44%.275-1.4
knuckle-curve40326%13%79.7-14+5245125%32%28%22%40%.254-0.2
slider35010%31%86.9+4+5252530%36%32%16%39%.288-0.6
sinker28712%20%94.6+15-1323988%21%30%8%47%.357+0.9
cutter1168%2%90.7+11+3266129%34%37%1%·.277-1.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
knuckle-curve
slider

Movement

4-seam: +19 IVB, -5 HBknuckle-curve: -14 IVB, +5 HBslider: +4 IVB, +5 HBsinker: +15 IVB, -13 HBcutter: +11 IVB, +3 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs New York Yankees

  • Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are McMahon (41%), Schuemann (33%).
  • Careful with Grisham: 84% contact, 15% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Ryan Weathers

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Chase Meidroth (R)123.30520%29%86%37%63%12%n171
2Munetaka Murakami (L)95.32437%22%60%60%58%18%n111
3Miguel Vargas (R)140.44016%22%86%59%63%16%n196
4Sam Antonacci (L)75.27120%26%88%24%··n168
5Colson Montgomery (L)131.33330%34%68%37%59%13%n174
6Tristan Peters (L)37.25016%25%78%7%··n169
7Braden Montgomery (S)43.26028%33%69%37%60%7%n198
8Andrew Benintendi (L)39.27736%41%66%26%··n141
9Edgar Quero (S)71.28220%28%87%32%57%10%n30

New York Yankees bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Trent Grisham (L)25411%21%27%.35318%84%29% n25563%13%n172
2Ben Rice (L)29113%29%30%.40724%78%30% n29169%20%n192
3Jasson Domínguez (S)1189%22%37%.30336%80%38% n11863%12%n184
4Paul Goldschmidt (R)17127%29%29%.25839%72%39% n17159%14%▼ -8% n140
5Max Schuemann (R)4322%33%·.33520%74%···n61
6José Caballero (R)22117%31%23%.26636%78%29% n221··n179
7Anthony Volpe (R)10322%28%13%.27824%76%36% n10254%8%n96
8Ryan McMahon (L)20022%41%32%.31130%71%28% n20255%12%n97
9Ali Sánchez (R)2412%··.22643%84%···n54

New York Yankees hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Trent Grisham (L)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB11%
BRK21%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.353 xwOBA, K 15% (254 PA)

2

Ben Rice (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 20%

FB13%
BRK29%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.407 xwOBA, K 23% (291 PA)

3

Jasson Domínguez (S)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB9%
BRK22%
OFF37%

vs RHP 0.303 xwOBA, K 19% (118 PA)

4

Paul Goldschmidt (R)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB27%
BRK29%
OFF29%

vs RHP 0.258 xwOBA, K 26% (171 PA)

5

Max Schuemann (R)

FB22%
BRK33%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.335 xwOBA, K 26% (43 PA)

6

José Caballero (R)

FB17%
BRK31%
OFF23%

vs RHP 0.266 xwOBA, K 19% (221 PA)

7

Anthony Volpe (R)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB22%
BRK28%
OFF13%

vs RHP 0.278 xwOBA, K 26% (103 PA)

8

Ryan McMahon (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB22%
BRK41%
OFF32%

vs RHP 0.311 xwOBA, K 30% (200 PA)

9

Ali Sánchez (R)

FB12%
BRK·
OFF·

only 24 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Ryan Weathers

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.358 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Sam Antonacci

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 9% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 37% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (31 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.445 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Tristan Peters

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Braden Montgomery

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Andrew Benintendi

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

9. Edgar Quero

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

New York Yankees: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 65-for-81 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Trent Grisham (L)26.7 ft/s2.7% (9/356)holds-2 CF
2Ben Rice (L)26.7 ft/s1.0% (2/292)holds-5 1B
3Jasson Domínguez (S)28.5 ft/s10.2% (23/216)occasional·
4Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4 ft/s2.5% (6/265)holds+4 1B
5Max Schuemann (R)27.7 ft/s7.7% (12/149)occasional·
6José Caballero (R)28.0 ft/s22.1% (57/242)runner-3 SS
7Anthony Volpe (R)28.5 ft/s8.9% (21/228)occasional+6 SS
8Ryan McMahon (L)25.9 ft/s2.2% (5/255)holds+2 3B
9Ali Sánchez (R)25.6 ft/s2.6% (0/22)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.5% (13/387)holds+4 2B
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.7% (3/130)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.3% (14/330)holds-2 3B
4Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s9.5% (14/139)occasional-5 LF
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s1.0% (1/195)holds+6 SS
6Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (4/106)holds+9 CF
7Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s3.0% (1/49)holds·
8Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/238)holds·
9Edgar Quero (S)24.1 ft/s0.9% (1/208)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2707/2807/29 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)29·14today313p/12g26%23%.2884-seam 92 (60%) · changeup 80 (30%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)·38·1 heavy241p/6g11%20%.3534-seam 94 (45%) · slider 88 (35%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·1229today B2B190p/11g26%23%.284sinker 100 (41%) · sweeper 86 (32%)
Grant Taylor (R)··26today187p/9g34%27%.2444-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 83 (29%)
Chris Murphy (L)15·19today182p/10g23%27%.2954-seam 97 (35%) · curveball 78 (27%)
Sean Newcomb (L)19··2166p/8g23%22%.3144-seam 95 (51%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Bryan Hudson (L)24·11today138p/8g23%22%.3004-seam 93 (60%) · sweeper 80 (37%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)13··2126p/9g28%28%.3474-seam 97 (47%) · sweeper 85 (30%)
New York Yankees bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/2707/2807/29 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Paul Blackburn (R)10·24today220p/11g19%20%.292sinker 94 (32%) · changeup 87 (29%)
Brent Headrick (L)145·1207p/14g29%30%.2784-seam 95 (44%) · slider 85 (33%)
Fernando Cruz (R)21·15today196p/11g29%39%.274splitter 80 (58%) · 4-seam 93 (28%)
Camilo Doval (R)20·17today182p/9g22%23%.302sinker 99 (44%) · slider 89 (29%)
David Bednar (R)525·1175p/10g28%29%.2624-seam 96 (44%) · splitter 91 (42%)
Ryan Yarbrough (L)··2today158p/7g16%21%.288sweeper 72 (23%) · sinker 87 (20%)
Tim Hill (L)6·13today156p/12g11%11%.330sinker 88 (81%) · slider 76 (16%)
Angel Chivilli (R)138·1143p/10g24%32%.264slider 91 (43%) · changeup 90 (40%)