2026-07-31, 7:10 PM ET, Tropicana Field. Erick Fedde (R) against Nick Martinez (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-30.
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
20 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 84 pitches (IQR 78–88, 20 starts) · fastball -0.3 mph late (10 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
| Pitch | # | vL% | vR% | MPH | IVB | HB | RPM | Whiff | CSW | Chase | 2K use | 2K zone | xwOBA | RV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sinker | 511 | 26% | 38% | 92.5 | +13 | -15 | 2290 | 8% | 30% | 28% | 29% | 63% | .338 | -1.3 |
| changeup | 451 | 30% | 23% | 78.4 | +4 | -12 | 1849 | 32% | 27% | 40% | 37% | 22% | .232 | -1.7 |
| cutter | 345 | 21% | 20% | 89.2 | +11 | +1 | 2331 | 12% | 21% | 33% | 12% | 49% | .333 | -2.0 |
| 4-seam | 187 | 13% | 9% | 92.8 | +17 | -6 | 2263 | 12% | 19% | 29% | 15% | 39% | .398 | +0.7 |
| curveball | 100 | 7% | 5% | 80.0 | -15 | +1 | 2511 | 17% | 30% | 11% | 2% | · | .463 | +1.1 |
| slider | 52 | 2% | 4% | 85.9 | +4 | +2 | 2415 | 9% | 15% | 18% | 5% | · | .509 | +8.4 |
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
21 apps · median 21 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 80 pitches (IQR 72–88, 11 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (4 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
| Pitch | # | vL% | vR% | MPH | IVB | HB | RPM | Whiff | CSW | Chase | 2K use | 2K zone | xwOBA | RV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sweeper | 619 | 31% | 46% | 81.9 | +1 | +16 | 2522 | 21% | 28% | 31% | 43% | 39% | .300 | -0.8 |
| sinker | 499 | 26% | 36% | 93.9 | +8 | -9 | 2059 | 13% | 28% | 16% | 26% | 44% | .357 | +0.3 |
| cutter | 307 | 21% | 15% | 90.8 | +7 | +3 | 2144 | 15% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 43% | .394 | +1.4 |
| changeup | 212 | 21% | 2% | 88.7 | +3 | -10 | 1843 | 25% | 16% | 25% | 14% | 21% | .301 | +3.3 |
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
| # | Batter | PA | xwOBA | K% | Chase% | Contact% | HH% | P(1+ hit) | P(1+ HR) | 30d contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci (L) | 279 | .379 | 14% | 22% | 88% | 40% | · | · | ≈ n166 |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami (L) | 219 | .413 | 31% | 22% | 60% | 60% | · | · | ≈ n119 |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas (R) | 324 | .371 | 18% | 22% | 81% | 41% | · | · | ≈ n195 |
| 4 | Colson Montgomery (L) | 296 | .309 | 33% | 32% | 65% | 45% | · | · | ≈ n169 |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi (L) | 291 | .322 | 22% | 30% | 75% | 47% | · | · | ≈ n143 |
| 6 | Braden Montgomery (S) | 125 | .326 | 18% | 30% | 76% | 41% | · | · | ≈ n200 |
| 7 | Tristan Peters (L) | 286 | .308 | 19% | 35% | 80% | 34% | · | · | ≈ n165 |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth (R) | 315 | .294 | 24% | 27% | 81% | 34% | · | · | ≈ n167 |
| 9 | Drew Romo (S) | 112 | .233 | 27% | 34% | 68% | 25% | · | · | ≈ n66 |
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Lineup projected from recent starts; the posted order replaces it once teams announce. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
| Batter | PA | FB whiff | BRK whiff | OFF whiff | xwOBA | Chase% | Contact% | 1st-pitch swing | P(1+ hit) | P(1+ HR) | 30d contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz (R) | 323 | 13% | 10% | 15% | .368 | 25% | 88% | 24% n323 | · | · | ≈ n215 |
| Jonathan Aranda (L) | 324 | 18% | 19% | 12% | .374 | 31% | 83% | 44% n324 | · | · | ≈ n234 |
| Junior Caminero (R) | 344 | 15% | 28% | 30% | .359 | 30% | 79% | 23% n344 | · | · | ≈ n205 |
| Cedric Mullins (L) | 271 | 21% | 28% | 13% | .277 | 30% | 78% | 32% n271 | · | · | ≈ n170 |
| Ryan Vilade (R) | 69 | 16% | 27% | · | .325 | 26% | 80% | · | · | · | ≈ n75 |
| Chandler Simpson (L) | 273 | 4% | 18% | 12% | .292 | 27% | 92% | 26% n273 | · | · | ≈ n148 |
| Jonny DeLuca (R) | 125 | 16% | 32% | · | .289 | 34% | 78% | 35% n125 | · | · | ≈ n137 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (L) | 108 | 25% | 22% | 16% | .325 | 33% | 77% | 44% n108 | · | · | ≈ n132 |
| Ben Williamson (R) | 145 | 11% | 25% | · | .298 | 29% | 84% | 17% n145 | · | · | ≈ n112 |
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
No batter probabilities are published for this game yet — those publish once the lineup posts.
vs RHP 0.368 xwOBA, K 14% (323 PA)
vs RHP 0.374 xwOBA, K 22% (324 PA)
vs RHP 0.359 xwOBA, K 19% (344 PA)
vs RHP 0.277 xwOBA, K 22% (271 PA)
vs RHP 0.325 xwOBA, K 20% (69 PA)
vs RHP 0.292 xwOBA, K 8% (273 PA)
vs RHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 19% (125 PA)
vs RHP 0.325 xwOBA, K 27% (108 PA)
vs RHP 0.298 xwOBA, K 18% (145 PA)
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.440 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (23 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.675 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (23 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.513 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (25 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (62 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.576 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.358 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.399 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.396 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.390 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.432 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 34% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +3 points. (21 swings.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 27-for-35 against him (23% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
| Batter | Sprint | Steal rate | Threat | OAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz (R) | 26.1 ft/s | 1.3% (5/444) | holds | · |
| Jonathan Aranda (L) | 25.5 ft/s | 0.3% (0/334) | holds | -3 1B |
| Junior Caminero (R) | 26.3 ft/s | 1.9% (6/359) | holds | -15 3B |
| Cedric Mullins (L) | 27.9 ft/s | 15.1% (39/245) | runner | +7 CF |
| Ryan Vilade (R) | 28.5 ft/s | 2.6% (1/61) | holds | · |
| Chandler Simpson (L) | 29.5 ft/s | 19.8% (65/313) | runner | +6 LF |
| Jonny DeLuca (R) | 28.9 ft/s | 20.0% (19/80) | runner | +4 RF |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (L) | 27.9 ft/s | 8.3% (5/53) | occasional | · |
| Ben Williamson (R) | 28.2 ft/s | 6.7% (13/190) | occasional | -4 2B |
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.
| # | Batter | Sprint | Steal rate | Threat | OAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci (L) | 28.2 ft/s | 9.3% (14/141) | occasional | -5 LF |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami (L) | 27.1 ft/s | 2.6% (3/134) | holds | +0 1B |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas (R) | 28.3 ft/s | 4.3% (14/330) | holds | -2 3B |
| 4 | Colson Montgomery (L) | 26.6 ft/s | 1.0% (1/195) | holds | +6 SS |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi (L) | 26.6 ft/s | 0.8% (1/239) | holds | · |
| 6 | Braden Montgomery (S) | 28.5 ft/s | 3.0% (1/49) | holds | · |
| 7 | Tristan Peters (L) | 28.7 ft/s | 4.0% (4/106) | holds | +9 CF |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth (R) | 27.2 ft/s | 3.4% (13/392) | holds | +4 2B |
| 9 | Drew Romo (S) | 26.1 ft/s | 4.0% (1/32) | holds | · |
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.
| Reliever | 07/28 | 07/29 | 07/30 | games since | 30-day | K% | Whiff% | xwOBA | Top pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Richards (R) | · | 14 | · | 1 | 313p/12g | 26% | 23% | .288 | 4-seam 92 (60%) · changeup 80 (30%) |
| Tyler Schweitzer (L) | 38 | · | · | 2 heavy | 241p/6g | 11% | 20% | .353 | 4-seam 94 (45%) · slider 88 (35%) |
| Sean Newcomb (L) | · | · | 25 | today | 191p/9g | 23% | 22% | .315 | 4-seam 95 (50%) · slurve 83 (30%) |
| Jordan Hicks (R) | 12 | 29 | · | 1 | 190p/11g | 26% | 23% | .284 | sinker 100 (41%) · sweeper 86 (32%) |
| Chris Murphy (L) | · | 19 | 8 | today B2B | 178p/10g | 22% | 27% | .299 | 4-seam 97 (35%) · slider 89 (28%) |
| Grant Taylor (R) | · | 26 | · | 1 | 163p/8g | 34% | 27% | .244 | 4-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 83 (30%) |
| Bryan Hudson (L) | · | 11 | 11 | today B2B | 149p/9g | 22% | 22% | .299 | 4-seam 93 (60%) · sweeper 80 (37%) |
| Seranthony Domínguez (R) | · | · | 19 | today | 145p/10g | 28% | 28% | .343 | 4-seam 97 (45%) · sweeper 85 (30%) |
| Reliever | 07/28 | 07/29 | 07/30 | games since | 30-day | K% | Whiff% | xwOBA | Top pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger (L) | · | 9 | 20 | today B2B | 191p/12g | 33% | 25% | .294 | slider 88 (46%) · sinker 95 (27%) |
| Craig Kimbrel (R) | 30 | · | 14 | today | 189p/10g | 22% | 24% | .315 | 4-seam 93 (58%) · sinker 94 (17%) |
| Cole Sulser (R) | · | · | · | 4 | 185p/12g | 24% | 25% | .338 | 4-seam 93 (46%) · changeup 84 (39%) |
| Chris Roycroft (R) | · | · | · | 5 heavy | 182p/6g | 16% | 13% | .391 | sinker 96 (55%) · cutter 88 (23%) |
| Bryan Baker (R) | · | 20 | 30 | today B2B | 167p/10g | 27% | 26% | .258 | 4-seam 96 (56%) · changeup 85 (42%) |
| Cam Booser (L) | · | · | 11 | today | 164p/11g | 34% | 25% | .240 | cutter 88 (45%) · 4-seam 95 (38%) |
| Casey Legumina (R) | · | · | 9 | today | 125p/8g | 16% | 19% | .341 | 4-seam 94 (46%) · sinker 93 (18%) |
| Kevin Kelly (R) | 12 | 11 | · | 1 | 121p/9g | 22% | 17% | .317 | sinker 91 (55%) · changeup 86 (34%) |