CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-01 21:04 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
2026-08-01, 4:10 PM ET, Tropicana Field.
Jordan Hicks (R) against
Drew Rasmussen (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-07-31.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Run environment board total 8.84, P(over 8.5) 50%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
2Pen posture Us: 2 threw 35+ last time. Tampa Bay Rays: no flags. see bullpens
3Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 66%, lowest Andrew Benintendi 58% (8 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Their bats highest board probability Junior Caminero 15%. see the grid
Their starterDrew Rasmussen, board E[K] 5.1 — 20 apps, median 24 BF.
Air Dome — conditions are controlled, so weather is not a factor tonight.
Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
1724 pitches, K% 25% vs LHB (271 BF) / 26% vs RHB (168 BF)
20 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 77–94, 20 starts) · fastball -0.3 mph late (14 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7226%
BB%974%
CSW%5727%
Whiff%4523%
Chase%8434%
xwOBA vs88.275
Hard-hit%8533%
GB%7347%
1st-pitch strike%9167%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.1
recent starts, K (n=5)
506/28 AZ
207/04 HOU
207/09 NYY
507/21 TOR
907/26 CLE
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
cutter
526
30%
32%
90.1
+4
+4
2648
24%
23%
34%
28%
34%
.301
-0.7
4-seam
472
32%
19%
96.0
+17
-4
2518
23%
31%
39%
28%
38%
.301
-0.1
sinker
385
15%
35%
95.5
+13
-16
2425
12%
30%
28%
19%
53%
.254
-2.5
changeup
215
16%
6%
90.0
+3
-12
1206
37%
24%
38%
18%
22%
.165
-2.3
curveball
76
7%
0%
80.3
-13
+5
2614
26%
38%
17%
2%
·
.267
-2.9
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
cutter4-seamsinker
Movement
How to attack
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 37% whiffs, only 27% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans sinker (35% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the sinker early: 23% of his first pitches, only 12% whiffs, 61% in-zone on 0-0.
Jordan Hicks (RHP)
551 pitches, K% 26% overall (137 BF; split withheld, short side only 53 BF)
Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (34 appearances, median 4 batters). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.
34 apps · median 4 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 1) · exits at 16 pitches (IQR 12–20, 34 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7626%
BB%514%
CSW%7629%
Whiff%5223%
Chase%3429%
xwOBA vs83.284
Hard-hit%9331%
GB%8651%
1st-pitch strike%9569%
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sinker
280
56%
49%
98.9
+8
-17
1935
10%
28%
28%
34%
48%
.327
+0.2
sweeper
182
22%
40%
87.1
+0
+6
2237
46%
32%
27%
35%
18%
.265
-0.6
4-seam
68
17%
10%
99.5
+13
-12
2248
25%
28%
36%
26%
40%
.124
-4.7
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
sinkersweeper4-seam
Movement
Attack plan vs Tampa Bay Rays
Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are DeLuca (32%), Walls (31%).
Careful with Simpson: 92% contact, 8% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Drew Rasmussen
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
284
.378
14%
22%
88%
39%
62%
12%
≈ n173
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
223
.415
30%
22%
60%
61%
58%
19%
≈ n126
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
328
.377
17%
22%
81%
41%
66%
17%
≈ n195
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
300
.311
33%
32%
65%
45%
61%
13%
≈ n167
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
295
.329
22%
30%
75%
48%
58%
11%
≈ n144
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
129
.322
18%
30%
76%
41%
60%
8%
≈ n195
7
Tristan Peters (L)
290
.307
19%
34%
80%
33%
58%
10%
≈ n162
8
Chase Meidroth (R)
319
.296
24%
27%
82%
34%
63%
13%
≈ n167
9
Edgar Quero (S)
116
.264
23%
25%
77%
39%
58%
8%
≈ n38
Tampa Bay Rays bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Yandy Díaz (R)
326
12%
10%
15%
.364
25%
88%
25% n326
72%
13%
≈ n211
2
Chandler Simpson (L)
276
4%
18%
12%
.290
27%
92%
26% n276
66%
4%
≈ n148
3
Junior Caminero (R)
346
14%
28%
30%
.363
30%
78%
23% n346
68%
15%
≈ n204
4
Victor Mesa Jr. (L)
111
24%
22%
16%
.326
33%
78%
42% n111
57%
12%
≈ n141
5
Jonny DeLuca (R)
125
16%
32%
·
.289
34%
78%
35% n125
62%
9%
≈ n130
6
Ryan Vilade (R)
69
16%
27%
·
.325
26%
80%
·
59%
12%
≈ n74
7
Ben Williamson (R)
145
11%
25%
·
.298
29%
84%
17% n145
58%
6%
≈ n105
8
Nick Fortes (R)
132
9%
27%
·
.274
39%
85%
33% n132
61%
10%
▼ -9% n84
9
Taylor Walls (S)
191
19%
31%
40%
.276
25%
76%
28% n191
51%
6%
▼ -7% n123
Tampa Bay Rays hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Yandy Díaz (R)
P(1+ hit) 72% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB12%
BRK10%
OFF15%
vs RHP 0.364 xwOBA, K 15% (326 PA)
2
Chandler Simpson (L)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 4%
FB4%
BRK18%
OFF12%
vs RHP 0.290 xwOBA, K 8% (276 PA)
3
Junior Caminero (R)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB14%
BRK28%
OFF30%
vs RHP 0.363 xwOBA, K 20% (346 PA)
4
Victor Mesa Jr. (L)
P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB24%
BRK22%
OFF16%
vs RHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 26% (111 PA)
5
Jonny DeLuca (R)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB16%
BRK32%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 19% (125 PA)
6
Ryan Vilade (R)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB16%
BRK27%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.325 xwOBA, K 20% (69 PA)
7
Ben Williamson (R)
P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB11%
BRK25%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.298 xwOBA, K 18% (145 PA)
8
Nick Fortes (R)
P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB9%
BRK27%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.274 xwOBA, K 13% (132 PA)
9
Taylor Walls (S)
P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB19%
BRK31%
OFF40%
vs RHP 0.276 xwOBA, K 28% (191 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Drew Rasmussen
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.437 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (24 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.675 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 19% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (24 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.513 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (25 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (63 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 23% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (25 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.458 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Tristan Peters
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 18% of the time there, against 14% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (16 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.432 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Edgar Quero
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (19 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Tampa Bay Rays: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 67-for-83 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Yandy Díaz (R)
26.1 ft/s
1.3% (5/444)
holds
·
2
Chandler Simpson (L)
29.5 ft/s
20.1% (66/314)
runner
+6 LF
3
Junior Caminero (R)
26.3 ft/s
1.9% (6/362)
holds
-15 3B
4
Victor Mesa Jr. (L)
27.9 ft/s
8.3% (5/53)
occasional
·
5
Jonny DeLuca (R)
28.9 ft/s
20.0% (19/80)
runner
+4 RF
6
Ryan Vilade (R)
28.5 ft/s
2.6% (1/61)
holds
·
7
Ben Williamson (R)
28.2 ft/s
6.7% (13/190)
occasional
-4 2B
8
Nick Fortes (R)
27.0 ft/s
1.2% (1/154)
holds
·
9
Taylor Walls (S)
27.9 ft/s
11.1% (25/215)
occasional
-2 SS
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Nick Fortes — runners went 111-for-129 against him (14% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.3% (14/142)
occasional
-5 LF
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.6% (3/136)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.3% (14/332)
holds
-2 3B
4
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.0% (1/195)
holds
+6 SS
5
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/240)
holds
·
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
3.0% (1/49)
holds
·
7
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.0% (4/106)
holds
+9 CF
8
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.4% (13/393)
holds
+4 2B
9
Edgar Quero (S)
24.1 ft/s
0.9% (1/209)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.