Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

2026-08-04, 7:10 PM ET, Fenway Park. Davis Martin (R) against Patrick Sandoval (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-03.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Patrick Sandoval (LHP) limited 2026 sample

317 pitches, K% 23% overall (86 BF; split withheld, short side only 21 BF)

4 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 80 pitches (IQR 73–86, 4 starts) · fastball +0.9 mph late (1 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5523%
BB%707%
CSW%5127%
Whiff%4322%
Chase%6031%
xwOBA vs42.323
Hard-hit%6936%
GB%1234%
1st-pitch strike%2058%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.6
recent starts, K (n=4)
507/09
CWS
507/18
TB
307/24
TOR
707/29
ATH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
slider9939%28%87.0+4-7260428%29%28%35%41%.327+2.8
4-seam758%30%93.9+16+7210911%21%29%16%·.389+1.2
changeup701%30%84.3+10+15178036%34%39%27%·.221-3.8
sinker5444%7%94.5+13+13211018%24%37%16%·.287-0.0
curveball120%5%75.8-13-102757·33%·0%···

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

slider
4-seam
changeup

Movement

slider: +4 IVB, -7 HB4-seam: +16 IVB, +7 HBchangeup: +10 IVB, +15 HBsinker: +13 IVB, +13 HBcurveball: -13 IVB, -10 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs lefties he leans sinker (44% of pitches to that side).
  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 29% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 72% in-zone on 0-0.

Davis Martin (RHP)

1886 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (288 BF) / 24% vs RHB (200 BF)

21 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 85–97, 21 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4322%
BB%677%
CSW%3126%
Whiff%4022%
Chase%7432%
xwOBA vs45.321
Hard-hit%1444%
GB%5543%
1st-pitch strike%1457%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
007/02
CLE
207/08
BOS
507/18
TOR
307/24
HOU
607/29
NYY

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam49029%22%94.0+14-5241021%25%27%30%41%.313+0.1
sinker34215%24%92.8+8-1423977%22%25%12%60%.347-1.3
changeup26018%8%90.2+1-13212212%19%38%15%40%.346-1.8
curveball26017%9%81.8-8+14287938%30%29%14%30%.227-0.3
slider2555%27%87.1+1+5260537%30%47%20%26%.247-0.6
cutter24716%9%89.7+7+2257524%32%29%9%58%.417+0.0

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sinker
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, -5 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +1 IVB, -13 HBcurveball: -8 IVB, +14 HBslider: +1 IVB, +5 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +2 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Boston Red Sox

  • Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Duran (42%), Contreras (42%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Contreras (44%), Monasterio (35%).
  • Careful with Yoshida: 87% contact, 10% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Patrick Sandoval

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Chase Meidroth (R)127.31320%28%85%37%66%11%n170
2Munetaka Murakami (L)101.31338%22%61%57%58%20%n145
3Miguel Vargas (R)145.43217%22%86%60%65%16%n185
4Randal Grichuk (R)110.36525%37%80%49%57%13%n101
5Colson Montgomery (L)134.32829%33%69%37%64%14%n173
6Joey Bart (R)61.25330%32%69%39%52%9%n69
7Brenton Doyle (R)45.27527%38%66%37%55%8%·
8Braden Montgomery (S)47.26428%34%70%40%57%6%n177
9Luisangel Acuña (R)75.26813%36%76%44%51%7%n51

Boston Red Sox bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Nick Sogard (S)4113%33%24%.30521%79%·58%8%n34
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)31717%25%31%.29441%79%38% n31770%13%n251
3Wilyer Abreu (L)32418%27%27%.32834%78%31% n32465%18%n210
4Willson Contreras (R)31121%42%44%.36835%70%40% n31262%16%n134
5Masataka Yoshida (L)2278%22%18%.31729%87%21% n22764%9%n118
6Caleb Durbin (R)2839%21%27%.27528%86%31% n28363%7%n186
7Jarren Duran (L)33026%42%33%.28836%69%26% n33062%10%▲ +6% n181
8Andruw Monasterio (R)12911%21%35%.27630%84%21% n12965%13%n148
9Connor Wong (R)11418%39%·.29232%74%25% n11452%7%n105

Boston Red Sox hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Nick Sogard (S)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB13%
BRK33%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.305 xwOBA, K 17% (41 PA)

2

Ceddanne Rafaela (R)

P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB17%
BRK25%
OFF31%

vs RHP 0.294 xwOBA, K 18% (317 PA)

3

Wilyer Abreu (L)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 18%

FB18%
BRK27%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.328 xwOBA, K 24% (324 PA)

4

Willson Contreras (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB21%
BRK42%
OFF44%

vs RHP 0.368 xwOBA, K 28% (311 PA)

5

Masataka Yoshida (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB8%
BRK22%
OFF18%

vs RHP 0.317 xwOBA, K 10% (227 PA)

6

Caleb Durbin (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB9%
BRK21%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.275 xwOBA, K 14% (283 PA)

7

Jarren Duran (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB26%
BRK42%
OFF33%

vs RHP 0.288 xwOBA, K 30% (330 PA)

8

Andruw Monasterio (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB11%
BRK21%
OFF35%

vs RHP 0.276 xwOBA, K 22% (129 PA)

9

Connor Wong (R)

P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB18%
BRK39%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.292 xwOBA, K 27% (114 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Patrick Sandoval

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — a spot he goes to often, 11% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Randal Grichuk

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — a spot he goes to often, 11% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.617 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Joey Bart

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Braden Montgomery

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Luisangel Acuña

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Boston Red Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Joey Bart — runners went 66-for-79 against him (16% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Nick Sogard (S)28.1 ft/s3.8% (2/60)holds·
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)29.1 ft/s11.7% (39/322)occasional+12 CF
3Wilyer Abreu (L)28.1 ft/s6.6% (18/267)occasional+5 RF
4Willson Contreras (R)27.2 ft/s2.9% (10/365)holds+0 1B
5Masataka Yoshida (L)26.2 ft/s3.2% (5/167)holds·
6Caleb Durbin (R)28.0 ft/s8.1% (24/290)occasional+3 3B
7Jarren Duran (L)29.1 ft/s11.7% (41/339)occasional+7 LF
8Andruw Monasterio (R)27.0 ft/s5.8% (6/101)holds-6 SS
9Connor Wong (R)27.3 ft/s5.0% (7/141)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Connor Wong — runners went 50-for-60 against him (17% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.4% (13/396)holds+4 2B
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.6% (3/139)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.3% (14/332)holds-2 3B
4Randal Grichuk (R)27.3 ft/s1.6% (1/107)holds·
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s1.0% (1/195)holds+6 SS
6Joey Bart (R)26.6 ft/s1.6% (2/169)holds·
7Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s12.7% (28/209)occasional·
8Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s2.9% (1/52)holds·
9Luisangel Acuña (R)29.8 ft/s16.1% (28/160)runner-3 SS

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/3108/0108/02 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)1417·1285p/12g26%23%.2824-seam 92 (61%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)43··2 heavy238p/6g12%20%.3644-seam 94 (48%) · slider 88 (30%)
Grant Taylor (R)··22today156p/8g34%26%.2424-seam 98 (37%) · curveball 83 (29%)
Sean Newcomb (L)···3155p/7g23%22%.3154-seam 94 (50%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Jordan Hicks (R)···4148p/9g26%23%.283sinker 100 (43%) · sweeper 86 (29%)
Chris Murphy (L)···3148p/8g22%27%.2994-seam 97 (36%) · slider 89 (30%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)·14·1143p/10g28%27%.3374-seam 97 (50%) · sweeper 85 (28%)
Bryan Hudson (L)···3123p/7g22%22%.2994-seam 93 (62%) · sweeper 80 (36%)
Boston Red Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever07/3108/0108/02 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Aroldis Chapman (L)·11·1188p/12g32%26%.2634-seam 97 (37%) · sinker 98 (29%)
Tyron Guerrero (R)·1123today B2B170p/10g27%23%.248sinker 100 (89%) · slider 92 (9%)
Garrett Whitlock (R)··12today157p/13g28%26%.261sinker 95 (64%) · slider 87 (18%)
Jovani Morán (L)16·15today154p/10g28%31%.284changeup 83 (35%) · 4-seam 93 (35%)
Greg Weissert (R)··5today144p/12g23%20%.292sinker 94 (38%) · 4-seam 94 (28%)
Justin Slaten (R)·85today B2B133p/11g29%23%.263cutter 94 (35%) · sinker 97 (21%)
Alec Gamboa (L)···8 heavy126p/4g23%17%.2614-seam 96 (51%) · slider 89 (31%)
Ryan Watson (R)···5113p/6g18%21%.366cutter 89 (37%) · sinker 94 (27%)