Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

2026-08-05, 7:10 PM ET, Fenway Park. Sean Burke (R) against Sonny Gray (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-04.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their bats highest board probability Wilyer Abreu 22%. see the grid
2Our bats highest board probability Sam Antonacci 68%, lowest Drew Romo 49% (19 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Run environment board total 8.75, P(over 8.5) 48%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.

Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Boston Red Sox: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their starter Sonny Gray, board E[K] 4.5 — 20 apps, median 23 BF.
Air 83°F · 7 mph blowing out to center · air 2.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Sonny Gray (RHP)

1655 pitches, K% 22% vs LHB (296 BF) / 20% vs RHB (166 BF)

20 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 77–91, 20 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (10 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4121%

BB%786%

CSW%4727%

Whiff%3121%

Chase%7533%

xwOBA vs60.306

Hard-hit%4938%

GB%7848%

1st-pitch strike%6964%

published K forecast: E[K] 4.5

recent starts, K (n=5)

707/04
LAA

307/10
NYM

507/19
TB

307/25
TOR

507/30
ATH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
sinker	340	14%	34%	92.1	+7	-11	2349	12%	26%	20%	27%	58%	.261	-2.5
cutter	331	16%	27%	88.3	+3	+4	2624	15%	27%	31%	6%	72%	.369	+0.5
sweeper	323	16%	26%	84.9	-5	+14	2672	37%	24%	47%	48%	21%	.216	-1.4
4-seam	299	23%	9%	91.7	+11	+1	2464	11%	28%	25%	6%	58%	.389	-1.3
curveball	270	23%	4%	79.7	-14	+13	2592	30%	33%	33%	12%	32%	.341	+2.3
changeup	89	8%	0%	86.1	+4	-13	1712	10%	18%	25%	1%	·	.301	+0.5

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

sinker

cutter

sweeper

Movement

How to attack

Two strikes: expect the sweeper (48% of 2-strike pitches vs 20% overall).
Lay off the sweeper below the zone: 37% whiffs, only 25% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans sinker (34% of pitches to that side).

Sean Burke (RHP)

2000 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (312 BF) / 28% vs RHB (197 BF)

22 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–97, 18 starts) · fastball -0.1 mph late (19 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%8228%

BB%657%

CSW%8029%

Whiff%5123%

Chase%7432%

xwOBA vs75.291

Hard-hit%6636%

GB%2036%

1st-pitch strike%7264%

published K forecast: E[K] 6.1

recent starts, K (n=5)

1107/04
CLE

907/10
ATH

507/19
TOR

1007/25
HOU

1007/30
NYY

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	743	40%	33%	94.9	+19	-5	2584	23%	27%	36%	50%	43%	.274	-1.3
knuckle-curve	419	26%	13%	79.6	-14	+5	2451	26%	32%	27%	22%	39%	.253	-0.2
slider	371	11%	31%	86.9	+4	+6	2526	31%	36%	34%	16%	40%	.295	-0.6
sinker	298	12%	20%	94.7	+15	-13	2399	10%	22%	30%	8%	45%	.373	+0.5
cutter	122	8%	2%	90.6	+11	+3	2660	32%	37%	37%	2%	·	.241	-2.2

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

knuckle-curve

slider

Movement

Attack plan vs Boston Red Sox

Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Duran (42%), Contreras (41%).
Careful with Yoshida: 87% contact, 10% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Sonny Gray

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	294	.373	14%	22%	88%	40%	68%	10%	≈ n158
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	231	.407	31%	22%	60%	61%	58%	21%	≈ n152
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	337	.374	18%	22%	80%	41%	66%	16%	▼ -6% n188
4	Colson Montgomery (L)	310	.304	34%	33%	65%	44%	62%	13%	≈ n171
5	Andrew Benintendi (L)	301	.331	22%	31%	75%	48%	62%	10%	≈ n126
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	133	.320	18%	30%	76%	41%	61%	8%	≈ n175
7	Tristan Peters (L)	297	.309	19%	34%	80%	33%	61%	9%	≈ n150
8	Chase Meidroth (R)	327	.294	24%	26%	82%	33%	64%	11%	≈ n158
9	Drew Romo (S)	120	.229	28%	34%	68%	25%	49%	4%	≈ n69

Boston Red Sox bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Nick Sogard (S)	46	11%	35%	22%	.315	22%	80%	·	59%	8%	≈ n42
2	Ceddanne Rafaela (R)	321	17%	25%	30%	.296	41%	79%	38% n321	68%	17%	≈ n246
3	Wilyer Abreu (L)	329	18%	27%	27%	.339	33%	79%	30% n329	67%	22%	≈ n209
4	Willson Contreras (R)	315	21%	41%	45%	.370	35%	70%	41% n316	60%	18%	≈ n136
5	Masataka Yoshida (L)	231	8%	21%	18%	.319	29%	87%	21% n231	62%	9%	≈ n123
6	Caleb Durbin (R)	287	9%	21%	27%	.280	28%	87%	31% n287	61%	8%	≈ n182
7	Jarren Duran (L)	334	26%	42%	34%	.293	36%	69%	26% n334	62%	10%	▲ +6% n186
8	Andruw Monasterio (R)	133	11%	22%	35%	.271	30%	84%	20% n133	65%	13%	≈ n140
9	Connor Wong (R)	118	18%	37%	·	.285	32%	74%	25% n118	53%	7%	≈ n102

Boston Red Sox hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Nick Sogard (S)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB11%

BRK35%

OFF22%

vs RHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 15% (46 PA)

Ceddanne Rafaela (R)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 17%

FB17%

BRK25%

OFF30%

vs RHP 0.296 xwOBA, K 18% (321 PA)

Wilyer Abreu (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 22%

FB18%

BRK27%

OFF27%

vs RHP 0.339 xwOBA, K 23% (329 PA)

Willson Contreras (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 18%

FB21%

BRK41%

OFF45%

vs RHP 0.370 xwOBA, K 28% (315 PA)

Masataka Yoshida (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB8%

BRK21%

OFF18%

vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 10% (231 PA)

Caleb Durbin (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB9%

BRK21%

OFF27%

vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 14% (287 PA)

Jarren Duran (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB26%

BRK42%

OFF34%

vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 30% (334 PA)

Andruw Monasterio (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB11%

BRK22%

OFF35%

vs RHP 0.271 xwOBA, K 22% (133 PA)

Connor Wong (R)

P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB18%

BRK37%

OFF·

vs RHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 26% (118 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Sonny Gray

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.379 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.321 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (26 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.670 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 21% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.547 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (68 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.552 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.358 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 23% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (26 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.458 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.495 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.397 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.296 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.366 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 49% to get a hit and 4% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Boston Red Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 20 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 28-for-36 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Nick Sogard (S)	28.1 ft/s	3.7% (2/63)	holds	·
2	Ceddanne Rafaela (R)	29.1 ft/s	11.6% (39/324)	occasional	+12 CF
3	Wilyer Abreu (L)	28.1 ft/s	6.6% (18/268)	occasional	+5 RF
4	Willson Contreras (R)	27.2 ft/s	2.9% (10/366)	holds	+0 1B
5	Masataka Yoshida (L)	26.2 ft/s	3.2% (5/168)	holds	·
6	Caleb Durbin (R)	28.0 ft/s	8.4% (25/292)	occasional	+3 3B
7	Jarren Duran (L)	29.1 ft/s	12.0% (42/340)	occasional	+7 LF
8	Andruw Monasterio (R)	27.0 ft/s	5.7% (6/104)	holds	-6 SS
9	Connor Wong (R)	27.3 ft/s	5.0% (7/141)	holds	·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Connor Wong — runners went 50-for-60 against him (17% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	9.6% (15/147)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.5% (3/141)	holds	+0 1B
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	28.3 ft/s	4.3% (14/333)	holds	-2 3B
4	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	1.0% (1/197)	holds	+6 SS
5	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.8% (1/241)	holds	·
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	2.8% (1/53)	holds	·
7	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.7% (5/110)	holds	+9 CF
8	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.4% (13/399)	holds	+4 2B
9	Drew Romo (S)	26.1 ft/s	3.8% (1/34)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/01	08/02	08/04	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	17	·	·	2	285p/12g	26%	23%	.282	4-seam 92 (61%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	·	·	3 heavy	238p/6g	12%	20%	.364	4-seam 94 (48%) · slider 88 (30%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	·	·	·	4	155p/7g	23%	22%	.315	4-seam 94 (50%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	·	·	·	5	148p/9g	26%	23%	.283	sinker 100 (43%) · sweeper 86 (29%)
Chris Murphy (L)	·	·	·	4	148p/8g	22%	27%	.299	4-seam 97 (36%) · slider 89 (30%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)	14	·	·	2	143p/10g	27%	27%	.351	4-seam 97 (50%) · sweeper 85 (28%)
Grant Taylor (R)	·	22	·	1	139p/7g	34%	26%	.242	4-seam 98 (38%) · curveball 82 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	·	·	·	4	123p/7g	22%	22%	.299	4-seam 93 (62%) · sweeper 80 (36%)

Boston Red Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/01	08/02	08/04	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Aroldis Chapman (L)	11	·	·	2	188p/12g	32%	26%	.263	4-seam 97 (37%) · sinker 98 (29%)
Tyron Guerrero (R)	11	23	·	1	170p/10g	27%	23%	.248	sinker 100 (89%) · slider 92 (9%)
Garrett Whitlock (R)	·	12	·	1	157p/13g	28%	26%	.261	sinker 95 (64%) · slider 87 (18%)
Greg Weissert (R)	·	5	14	today B2B	146p/12g	22%	20%	.292	sinker 94 (40%) · 4-seam 94 (28%)
Jovani Morán (L)	·	15	·	1	141p/9g	28%	31%	.284	4-seam 93 (35%) · changeup 83 (35%)
Justin Slaten (R)	8	5	·	1	133p/11g	29%	23%	.263	cutter 94 (35%) · sinker 97 (21%)
Alec Gamboa (L)	·	·	·	9 heavy	120p/3g	23%	17%	.261	4-seam 96 (50%) · slider 89 (32%)
Ryan Watson (R)	·	·	·	6	113p/6g	18%	21%	.366	cutter 89 (37%) · sinker 94 (27%)