CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-06 23:03 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
2026-08-06, 7:10 PM ET, Fenway Park.
Luis Castillo (R) against
Ranger Suarez (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-05.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Their bats highest board probability Wilyer Abreu 23%. see the grid
2Run environment board total 8.51, P(over 8.5) 46%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
3Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 69%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 50% (19 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Boston Red Sox: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their starterRanger Suarez, board E[K] 5.2 — 19 apps, median 22 BF.
Air 88°F · 8 mph blowing out to center · air 3.9% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Ranger Suarez (LHP)
1577 pitches, K% 26% overall (409 BF; split withheld, short side only 111 BF)
19 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 84 pitches (IQR 74–94, 19 starts) · fastball +0.2 mph late (9 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7126%
BB%727%
CSW%5928%
Whiff%4423%
Chase%6732%
xwOBA vs79.286
Hard-hit%8233%
GB%4842%
1st-pitch strike%8366%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.2
recent starts, K (n=5)
906/24 COL
806/29 WSH
507/05 LAA
607/26 TOR
207/31 LAD
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sinker
369
39%
18%
90.4
+6
+14
1994
12%
25%
29%
19%
58%
.339
-0.5
4-seam
352
28%
20%
91.7
+12
+4
2050
16%
36%
19%
17%
47%
.290
-1.9
cutter
325
2%
28%
88.1
+8
-2
2115
14%
22%
30%
14%
34%
.291
-1.6
curveball
259
15%
17%
75.4
-10
-11
2200
43%
35%
42%
26%
16%
.192
-1.4
changeup
217
6%
17%
81.1
+3
+10
1274
31%
18%
35%
18%
22%
.303
+1.0
slider
53
11%
1%
78.5
+0
-13
2254
52%
36%
49%
6%
11%
.205
-0.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
sinker4-seamcutter
Movement
How to attack
Vs righties he leans cutter (28% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the sinker early: 28% of his first pitches, only 12% whiffs, 52% in-zone on 0-0.
Two strikes: expect the curveball (26% of 2-strike pitches vs 16% overall).
Luis Castillo (RHP)
1768 pitches, K% 16% vs LHB (262 BF) / 24% vs RHB (182 BF)
20 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 91–100, 17 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (13 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2919%
BB%707%
CSW%924%
Whiff%2820%
Chase%7733%
xwOBA vs23.342
Hard-hit%2942%
GB%2638%
1st-pitch strike%9770%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.9
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 07/28, 9 days ago
406/26 CLE
407/03 TOR
407/10 TB
307/21 CIN
207/28 LAD
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
776
46%
41%
95.3
+13
-12
2274
23%
24%
34%
49%
40%
.350
+0.7
slider
474
26%
27%
85.5
+1
+1
2240
23%
29%
33%
29%
34%
.310
+0.8
sinker
288
9%
26%
95.5
+4
-18
2074
10%
23%
27%
9%
61%
.413
-0.5
changeup
227
18%
6%
87.6
-0
-17
1939
18%
16%
34%
12%
38%
.282
+1.6
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamslidersinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Boston Red Sox
Slider: top breaking whiffs are Duran (41%), Wong (37%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Duran (34%), Monasterio (33%).
Careful with Yoshida: 87% contact, 10% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Ranger Suarez
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
130
.318
20%
29%
84%
38%
66%
11%
≈ n156
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
104
.311
38%
22%
61%
57%
58%
20%
≈ n157
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
148
.428
17%
23%
85%
59%
69%
18%
▼ -5% n189
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
114
.358
25%
36%
80%
48%
58%
12%
≈ n95
5
Colson Montgomery (L)
138
.335
28%
32%
69%
36%
62%
13%
≈ n169
6
Joey Bart (R)
63
.248
30%
33%
69%
38%
52%
8%
▼ -9% n70
7
Brenton Doyle (R)
48
.263
27%
39%
65%
38%
53%
8%
≈ n21
8
Braden Montgomery (S)
50
.268
28%
34%
69%
39%
57%
7%
≈ n169
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
77
.271
13%
34%
77%
44%
50%
6%
≈ n53
Boston Red Sox bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Nick Sogard (S)
50
14%
35%
22%
.304
22%
80%
·
60%
4%
≈ n50
2
Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
325
17%
25%
30%
.295
41%
79%
38% n325
69%
18%
≈ n247
3
Wilyer Abreu (L)
331
17%
27%
27%
.345
33%
79%
30% n331
68%
23%
≈ n201
4
Caleb Durbin (R)
289
9%
21%
27%
.280
28%
87%
31% n289
64%
7%
▲ +5% n176
5
Masataka Yoshida (L)
233
8%
21%
18%
.318
29%
87%
21% n233
64%
10%
≈ n118
6
Andruw Monasterio (R)
136
11%
21%
33%
.276
29%
84%
21% n136
67%
14%
≈ n147
7
Jarren Duran (L)
336
26%
41%
34%
.294
36%
69%
26% n336
67%
11%
▲ +7% n188
8
Anthony Seigler (S)
96
17%
31%
22%
.297
29%
79%
·
65%
12%
≈ n121
9
Connor Wong (R)
121
18%
37%
·
.284
32%
74%
25% n121
52%
8%
≈ n108
Boston Red Sox hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Nick Sogard (S)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 4%
FB14%
BRK35%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.304 xwOBA, K 18% (50 PA)
2
Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 18%
FB17%
BRK25%
OFF30%
vs RHP 0.295 xwOBA, K 18% (325 PA)
3
Wilyer Abreu (L)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 23%
FB17%
BRK27%
OFF27%
vs RHP 0.345 xwOBA, K 23% (331 PA)
4
Caleb Durbin (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB9%
BRK21%
OFF27%
vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 14% (289 PA)
5
Masataka Yoshida (L)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB8%
BRK21%
OFF18%
vs RHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 10% (233 PA)
6
Andruw Monasterio (R)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB11%
BRK21%
OFF33%
vs RHP 0.276 xwOBA, K 21% (136 PA)
7
Jarren Duran (L)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB26%
BRK41%
OFF34%
vs RHP 0.294 xwOBA, K 29% (336 PA)
8
Anthony Seigler (S)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB17%
BRK31%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 20% (96 PA)
9
Connor Wong (R)
P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB18%
BRK37%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.284 xwOBA, K 27% (121 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Ranger Suarez
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.617 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
5. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (31 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.431 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Joey Bart
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Boston Red Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Joey Bart — runners went 69-for-83 against him (17% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Nick Sogard (S)
28.1 ft/s
3.7% (2/64)
holds
·
2
Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
29.1 ft/s
11.6% (39/325)
occasional
+12 CF
3
Wilyer Abreu (L)
28.1 ft/s
6.9% (19/270)
occasional
+5 RF
4
Caleb Durbin (R)
28.0 ft/s
8.3% (25/293)
occasional
+3 3B
5
Masataka Yoshida (L)
26.2 ft/s
3.2% (5/168)
holds
·
6
Andruw Monasterio (R)
27.0 ft/s
6.4% (7/105)
occasional
-6 SS
7
Jarren Duran (L)
29.1 ft/s
12.2% (43/341)
occasional
+7 LF
8
Anthony Seigler (S)
25.4 ft/s
3.8% (2/62)
holds
-2 2B
9
Connor Wong (R)
27.3 ft/s
5.0% (7/141)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Connor Wong — runners went 50-for-60 against him (17% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.4% (13/399)
holds
+4 2B
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.5% (3/142)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.2% (14/335)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/107)
holds
·
5
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.0% (1/200)
holds
+6 SS
6
Joey Bart (R)
26.6 ft/s
1.6% (2/170)
holds
·
7
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
12.6% (28/210)
occasional
·
8
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.9% (1/53)
holds
·
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.0% (28/161)
runner
-3 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.