Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

2026-08-07, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Noah Schultz (L) against Parker Messick (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-06.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Parker Messick (LHP)

2014 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (138 BF) / 26% vs RHB (378 BF)

22 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 91 pitches (IQR 85–96, 22 starts) · fastball +0.4 mph late (17 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%6825%
BB%747%
CSW%4827%
Whiff%4723%
Chase%6532%
xwOBA vs86.277
Hard-hit%8533%
GB%6645%
1st-pitch strike%4561%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.9
recent starts, K (n=5)
307/04
CWS
107/10
MIA
607/21
MIN
607/26
TB
608/01
AZ

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam75137%37%94.1+17+5216123%31%31%42%53%.224-2.9
changeup4738%29%85.8+2+15184834%24%43%37%26%.236+0.1
sinker33528%13%92.5+10+1320528%25%22%7%61%.374-3.4
curveball2098%11%79.1-6-14228610%29%21%6%24%.321+1.7
cutter1293%8%90.5+10-2214224%21%22%2%·.329+2.1
slider11116%2%87.1+5-6234622%21%27%6%37%.410+1.3

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
changeup
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +17 IVB, +5 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, +15 HBsinker: +10 IVB, +13 HBcurveball: -6 IVB, -14 HBcutter: +10 IVB, -2 HBslider: +5 IVB, -6 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs righties he leans changeup (29% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the changeup below the zone: 34% whiffs, only 30% of them are strikes.
  • Hunt the sinker early: 23% of his first pitches, only 8% whiffs, 56% in-zone on 0-0.

Noah Schultz (LHP)

1124 pitches, K% 20% overall (287 BF; split withheld, short side only 61 BF)

14 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 76–87, 13 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3420%
BB%2211%
CSW%4327%
Whiff%2119%
Chase%1727%
xwOBA vs6.367
Hard-hit%3840%
GB%2537%
1st-pitch strike%3960%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.9
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 07/27, 11 days ago
707/01
BAL
307/07
BOS
407/12
ATH
207/21
TEX
507/27
NYY

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sinker29038%23%95.1+7+1824598%29%18%15%58%.395-0.4
4-seam25614%25%95.2+11+11246720%25%29%32%39%.319+0.6
cutter23221%21%89.8+9-2264218%28%21%11%51%.379-0.3
sweeper22226%18%82.6+0-14280930%29%29%23%39%.417+2.6
changeup1140%13%89.1+3+17198327%18%40%18%23%.304+3.5

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
sinker
4-seam
cutter

Movement

sinker: +7 IVB, +18 HB4-seam: +11 IVB, +11 HBcutter: +9 IVB, -2 HBsweeper: +0 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +3 IVB, +17 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians

  • Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Hoskins (32%), Adell (29%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Adell (50%), Hoskins (43%).
  • Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 11% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Parker Messick

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Chase Meidroth (R)134.33219%28%85%38%64%13%n166
2Munetaka Murakami (L)108.30539%22%61%57%56%18%n172
3Miguel Vargas (R)152.42218%22%84%58%68%15%▼ -5% n202
4Randal Grichuk (R)116.36325%36%80%49%53%13%n97
5Colson Montgomery (L)142.33627%31%70%34%59%15%n178
6Brenton Doyle (R)49.26627%39%66%40%53%9%n25
7Braden Montgomery (S)53.28426%33%70%39%59%7%n180
8Edgar Quero (S)74.27619%29%88%32%55%7%n48
9Luisangel Acuña (R)78.26813%36%78%43%51%6%n60

Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Steven Kwan (L)1233%21%·.32621%91%10% n12369%4%n154
2Chase DeLauter (L)12515%22%13%.32425%83%33% n12568%14%n174
3José Ramírez (S)1038%16%19%.42130%87%20% n10367%9%▲ +7% n95
4Jo Adell (R)13517%29%50%.39337%72%35% n13566%16%n181
5Angel Martínez (S)9511%16%20%.34140%85%·64%16%▼ -13% n58
6Rhys Hoskins (R)11425%32%43%.28920%71%31% n11454%13%n85
7Brayan Rocchio (S)13514%28%37%.30833%78%32% n13565%13%n193
8Austin Hedges (R)8614%25%22%.30926%82%·60%8%n61
9Angel Genao (S)2··········

Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Steven Kwan (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 4%

FB3%
BRK21%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 11% (123 PA)

2

Chase DeLauter (L)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB15%
BRK22%
OFF13%

vs LHP 0.324 xwOBA, K 17% (125 PA)

3

José Ramírez (S)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB8%
BRK16%
OFF19%

vs LHP 0.421 xwOBA, K 8% (103 PA)

4

Jo Adell (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB17%
BRK29%
OFF50%

vs LHP 0.393 xwOBA, K 23% (135 PA)

5

Angel Martínez (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB11%
BRK16%
OFF20%

vs LHP 0.341 xwOBA, K 16% (95 PA)

6

Rhys Hoskins (R)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB25%
BRK32%
OFF43%

vs LHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 35% (114 PA)

7

Brayan Rocchio (S)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB14%
BRK28%
OFF37%

vs LHP 0.308 xwOBA, K 15% (135 PA)

8

Austin Hedges (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB14%
BRK25%
OFF22%

vs LHP 0.309 xwOBA, K 10% (86 PA)

9

Angel Genao (S)

FB·
BRK·
OFF·

only 2 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Parker Messick

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Randal Grichuk

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.617 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 11% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (31 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Braden Montgomery

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 5 lifetime. At 5 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Edgar Quero

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Luisangel Acuña

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 5 lifetime. At 5 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 68-for-84 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Steven Kwan (L)27.0 ft/s5.1% (24/469)holds+7 LF
2Chase DeLauter (L)26.7 ft/s3.7% (6/170)holds·
3José Ramírez (S)27.6 ft/s16.2% (59/351)runner+5 3B
4Jo Adell (R)28.1 ft/s2.8% (8/307)holds-4 RF
5Angel Martínez (S)27.7 ft/s7.7% (15/188)occasional+1 LF
6Rhys Hoskins (R)24.9 ft/s1.1% (1/174)holds·
7Brayan Rocchio (S)27.4 ft/s8.8% (24/264)occasional+10 SS
8Austin Hedges (R)24.5 ft/s2.8% (3/126)holds·
9Angel Genao (S)··no read·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Austin Hedges — runners went 44-for-56 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.3% (13/403)holds+4 2B
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.5% (3/143)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.2% (14/336)holds-2 3B
4Randal Grichuk (R)27.3 ft/s1.6% (1/108)holds·
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/205)holds+6 SS
6Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s12.6% (28/211)occasional·
7Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s2.7% (1/56)holds·
8Edgar Quero (S)24.1 ft/s0.9% (1/210)holds·
9Luisangel Acuña (R)29.8 ft/s16.0% (28/161)runner-3 SS

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/0408/0508/06 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)··32today295p/12g24%23%.2954-seam 92 (61%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···5 heavy238p/6g12%20%.3644-seam 94 (48%) · slider 88 (30%)
Chris Murphy (L)·2714today B2B189p/10g22%27%.2944-seam 97 (37%) · slider 89 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)··40today heavy179p/8g33%26%.2454-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 83 (28%)
Jordan Hicks (R)··16today164p/10g26%23%.285sinker 100 (41%) · sweeper 86 (29%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·18·1151p/7g23%22%.3144-seam 94 (49%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)···4143p/10g27%27%.3514-seam 97 (50%) · sweeper 85 (28%)
Bryan Hudson (L)··13today136p/8g23%22%.2954-seam 93 (62%) · sweeper 80 (35%)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/0408/0508/06 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Matt Festa (R)·1422today B2B222p/11g25%23%.3134-seam 93 (60%) · sweeper 84 (31%)
Cade Smith (R)·29·1214p/11g34%32%.2844-seam 98 (67%) · splitter 88 (22%)
Hunter Gaddis (R)·13·1190p/13g21%27%.336slider 90 (42%) · 4-seam 95 (37%)
Colin Holderman (R)··24today175p/12g25%28%.282sinker 97 (45%) · sweeper 84 (33%)
Franco Aleman (R)···4157p/10g27%25%.2454-seam 96 (65%) · slider 86 (25%)
Will Dion (L)···4115p/6g29%23%.3044-seam 91 (57%) · curveball 82 (24%)
Erik Sabrowski (L)·5·1110p/9g39%31%.2854-seam 94 (66%) · curveball 82 (20%)
Shawn Armstrong (R)···10104p/7g22%19%.313sweeper 85 (28%) · cutter 90 (26%)