Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

2026-08-08, 7:15 PM ET, Rate Field. Anthony Kay (L) against Gavin Williams (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-07.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Gavin Williams (RHP)

2168 pitches, K% 32% vs LHB (339 BF) / 32% vs RHB (213 BF)

23 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 90–100, 23 starts) · fastball -1.1 mph late (19 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%9632%
BB%707%
CSW%9632%
Whiff%8929%
Chase%8534%
xwOBA vs61.305
Hard-hit%448%
GB%6946%
1st-pitch strike%6864%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.6
recent starts, K (n=5)
1107/09
MIN
1107/18
PIT
1107/23
MIN
1207/28
CIN
1008/02
AZ

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sweeper60722%39%87.5-0+11228443%35%40%36%35%.226-1.0
4-seam53729%19%97.3+14-11229827%27%31%28%34%.294-1.2
curveball45627%12%82.8-14+10244726%32%38%24%39%.288+0.3
sinker37912%26%96.8+9-16204813%32%18%8%57%.403+0.0
cutter15810%3%92.3+6-2222822%30%26%4%46%.431+1.2

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

sweeper
4-seam
curveball

Movement

sweeper: -0 IVB, +11 HB4-seam: +14 IVB, -11 HBcurveball: -14 IVB, +10 HBsinker: +9 IVB, -16 HBcutter: +6 IVB, -2 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Lay off the sweeper below the zone: 43% whiffs, only 42% of them are strikes.
  • Vs righties he leans sweeper (39% of pitches to that side).
  • Two strikes: expect the sweeper (36% of 2-strike pitches vs 28% overall).

Anthony Kay (LHP)

1983 pitches, K% 28% vs LHB (134 BF) / 15% vs RHB (361 BF)

23 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 86–92, 21 starts) · fastball -0.8 mph late (13 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2118%
BB%488%
CSW%2125%
Whiff%3922%
Chase%7933%
xwOBA vs20.345
Hard-hit%4339%
GB%5844%
1st-pitch strike%2559%
recent starts, K (n=5)
407/09
BOS
507/17
TOR
407/22
TEX
707/28
NYY
308/02
TB

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam46317%26%95.8+15+7234017%24%32%27%43%.370+0.4
sweeper44032%18%82.7-0-13243135%33%25%17%30%.316+0.5
sinker35233%12%95.1+5+16224616%27%39%14%59%.375+0.1
cutter33112%18%91.4+7-2237818%23%30%10%24%.416+0.3
changeup2800%19%86.1+0+14171125%16%39%17%18%.268+0.3
slider1176%6%86.2-4-4254631%23%45%15%20%.267+1.5

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sweeper
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsweeper: -0 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -2 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Bazzana (34%), Hoskins (32%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Adell (50%), Hoskins (43%).
  • Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 11% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Gavin Williams

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)302.37414%22%88%40%61%11%n155
2Munetaka Murakami (L)239.40031%22%60%59%56%17%n178
3Miguel Vargas (R)345.37218%22%80%41%67%15%▼ -7% n198
4Colson Montgomery (L)317.30134%33%65%44%58%14%n185
5Andrew Benintendi (L)307.32722%31%75%47%56%10%n133
6Braden Montgomery (S)140.32119%30%76%40%58%10%n190
7Tristan Peters (L)302.30819%34%80%33%54%10%n146
8Chase Meidroth (R)335.29124%27%82%33%67%11%n166
9Drew Romo (S)124.22427%36%68%25%47%5%n79

Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Lineup projected from recent starts; the posted order replaces it once teams announce. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
Steven Kwan (L)1243%20%·.33021%91%10% n124··n162
José Ramírez (S)1048%16%19%.42231%87%20% n104··▲ +7% n101
Chase DeLauter (L)12615%23%13%.32225%83%33% n126··n173
Jo Adell (R)13618%29%50%.39537%72%35% n136··n182
Travis Bazzana (L)11717%34%·.25826%76%30% n117··n191
Brayan Rocchio (S)13514%28%37%.30833%78%32% n135··n192
Rhys Hoskins (R)11425%32%43%.28920%71%31% n114··n88
Nathaniel Lowe (L)2517%28%·.27443%78%···n135
Angel Martínez (S)9612%16%20%.34440%85%···▼ -12% n66

Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

No batter probabilities are published for this game yet — those publish once the lineup posts.

Steven Kwan (L)

FB3%
BRK20%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 11% (124 PA)

José Ramírez (S)

FB8%
BRK16%
OFF19%

vs LHP 0.422 xwOBA, K 8% (104 PA)

Chase DeLauter (L)

FB15%
BRK23%
OFF13%

vs LHP 0.322 xwOBA, K 17% (126 PA)

Jo Adell (R)

FB18%
BRK29%
OFF50%

vs LHP 0.395 xwOBA, K 23% (136 PA)

Travis Bazzana (L)

FB17%
BRK34%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.258 xwOBA, K 27% (117 PA)

Brayan Rocchio (S)

FB14%
BRK28%
OFF37%

vs LHP 0.308 xwOBA, K 15% (135 PA)

Rhys Hoskins (R)

FB25%
BRK32%
OFF43%

vs LHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 35% (114 PA)

Nathaniel Lowe (L)

FB17%
BRK28%
OFF·

only 25 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Angel Martínez (S)

FB12%
BRK16%
OFF20%

vs LHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 16% (96 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Gavin Williams

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.437 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 14% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (26 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.643 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 18% of the time there, against 12% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.533 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 14% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (69 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.552 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 23% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (26 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.407 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.524 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Tristan Peters

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (21 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.366 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 47% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 31-for-40 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
Steven Kwan (L)27.0 ft/s5.1% (24/472)holds+7 LF
José Ramírez (S)27.6 ft/s16.3% (60/353)runner+5 3B
Chase DeLauter (L)26.7 ft/s3.7% (6/174)holds·
Jo Adell (R)28.1 ft/s2.8% (8/309)holds-4 RF
Travis Bazzana (L)28.4 ft/s9.0% (13/135)occasional-5 2B
Brayan Rocchio (S)27.4 ft/s8.8% (24/264)occasional+10 SS
Rhys Hoskins (R)24.9 ft/s1.1% (1/175)holds·
Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.6 ft/s0.7% (1/284)holds·
Angel Martínez (S)27.7 ft/s7.6% (15/190)occasional+1 LF

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s9.3% (15/152)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.5% (3/143)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.2% (14/337)holds-2 3B
4Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/205)holds+6 SS
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/242)holds·
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s2.7% (1/58)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.6% (5/112)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.3% (13/403)holds+4 2B
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s3.7% (1/36)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/0508/0608/07 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·3225today B2B306p/12g24%23%.2954-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (27%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···6 heavy238p/6g12%20%.3644-seam 94 (48%) · slider 88 (30%)
Chris Murphy (L)2714·1189p/10g22%27%.2944-seam 97 (37%) · slider 89 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)·40·1 heavy179p/8g33%26%.2454-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 83 (28%)
Sean Newcomb (L)18··2151p/7g23%22%.3144-seam 94 (49%) · slurve 83 (31%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·16·1150p/9g26%23%.285sinker 100 (41%) · sweeper 86 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)·13·1136p/8g23%22%.2954-seam 93 (62%) · sweeper 80 (35%)
Erick Fedde (R)·915today B2B130p/4g16%18%.334sinker 94 (38%) · sweeper 82 (37%)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/0508/0608/07 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Cade Smith (R)29··2214p/11g34%32%.2844-seam 98 (67%) · splitter 88 (22%)
Matt Festa (R)1422·1205p/10g25%23%.3134-seam 93 (60%) · sweeper 84 (31%)
Hunter Gaddis (R)13··2190p/13g21%27%.336slider 90 (42%) · 4-seam 95 (37%)
Franco Aleman (R)··44today heavy189p/10g29%24%.2554-seam 96 (66%) · slider 86 (26%)
Colin Holderman (R)·24·1175p/12g25%28%.282sinker 97 (45%) · sweeper 84 (33%)
Will Dion (L)···5115p/6g29%23%.3044-seam 91 (57%) · curveball 82 (24%)
Shawn Armstrong (R)···11104p/7g22%19%.313sweeper 85 (28%) · cutter 90 (26%)
Tim Herrin (L)·23·1100p/6g19%30%.329curveball 81 (34%) · 4-seam 96 (30%)