CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-09 18:34 UTC
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
2026-08-09, 2:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Davis Martin (R) against
Joey Cantillo (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-08.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 69%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 51% (18 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Chase DeLauter 16%. see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Cleveland Guardians: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Run environment board total 8.94, P(over 8.5) 50%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Their starterJoey Cantillo, board E[K] 5.3 — 24 apps, median 22 BF.
Air 82°F · 2 mph blowing in from center · air 4.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Joey Cantillo (LHP)
2060 pitches, K% 16% vs LHB (125 BF) / 28% vs RHB (393 BF)
24 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 81–92, 24 starts) · fastball -0.9 mph late (7 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%6825%
BB%2211%
CSW%9331%
Whiff%9130%
Chase%4029%
xwOBA vs54.311
Hard-hit%4339%
GB%6745%
1st-pitch strike%755%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
907/12 MIA
707/19 PIT
407/24 TB
807/29 CIN
508/04 NYM
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
710
37%
34%
92.1
+17
+7
1871
15%
29%
18%
28%
49%
.370
+1.2
curveball
592
23%
30%
80.0
-17
-10
2672
37%
34%
38%
37%
37%
.229
-0.8
changeup
525
14%
29%
80.7
+13
+9
1446
41%
32%
29%
30%
38%
.275
+0.2
cutter
119
10%
4%
87.2
+7
-3
2020
23%
32%
26%
1%
·
.483
+3.4
slider
112
15%
3%
82.8
-6
-4
2323
26%
30%
37%
5%
54%
.381
+0.7
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamcurveballchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 41% of his first pitches, only 15% whiffs, 51% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the curveball below the zone: 37% whiffs, only 40% of them are strikes.
K rate splits 16% vs LHB / 28% vs RHB: the left-handed side of the platoon wears him better.
Davis Martin (RHP)
1977 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (300 BF) / 23% vs RHB (213 BF)
22 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 85–96, 22 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%3821%
BB%677%
CSW%2926%
Whiff%3822%
Chase%7232%
xwOBA vs34.330
Hard-hit%1544%
GB%5143%
1st-pitch strike%1457%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
207/08 BOS
507/18 TOR
307/24 HOU
607/29 NYY
108/04 BOS
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
521
30%
22%
93.9
+14
-5
2411
20%
24%
27%
30%
41%
.318
+0.2
sinker
359
15%
25%
92.8
+8
-14
2397
7%
22%
24%
12%
61%
.346
-1.4
curveball
277
17%
10%
81.7
-8
+14
2879
38%
30%
29%
14%
31%
.282
+0.7
changeup
268
18%
8%
90.2
+1
-13
2120
12%
20%
38%
15%
40%
.343
-1.6
slider
266
5%
27%
87.1
+1
+5
2605
35%
29%
48%
20%
26%
.274
+0.4
cutter
254
16%
9%
89.7
+7
+2
2575
24%
31%
28%
9%
58%
.414
-0.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamsinkercurveball
Movement
Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians
Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Bazzana (35%), Bailey (33%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Bazzana (37%), Rocchio (28%).
Careful with Genao: 95% contact, 8% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Joey Cantillo
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
52
.255
27%
38%
66%
38%
52%
9%
≈ n30
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
112
.312
38%
21%
61%
59%
57%
19%
≈ n182
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
156
.412
18%
23%
84%
57%
69%
15%
▼ -6% n203
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
119
.358
25%
37%
80%
49%
52%
13%
≈ n87
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
56
.314
27%
32%
70%
41%
61%
10%
≈ n188
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
146
.329
28%
31%
70%
35%
62%
17%
≈ n188
7
Edgar Quero (S)
77
.270
18%
29%
87%
32%
56%
7%
▲ +10% n56
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
79
.275
19%
26%
88%
22%
63%
10%
≈ n164
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
80
.263
14%
35%
78%
43%
51%
6%
≈ n59
Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Steven Kwan (L)
315
4%
9%
13%
.330
20%
93%
8% n315
70%
5%
≈ n167
2
Chase DeLauter (L)
294
11%
14%
17%
.359
19%
87%
22% n294
67%
16%
≈ n173
3
José Ramírez (S)
265
11%
17%
18%
.334
29%
86%
23% n265
69%
8%
▲ +7% n102
4
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
266
16%
30%
18%
.363
26%
81%
24% n266
67%
15%
≈ n135
5
Jo Adell (R)
341
20%
33%
21%
.302
36%
75%
36% n341
64%
14%
≈ n185
6
Travis Bazzana (L)
246
15%
35%
37%
.323
26%
77%
26% n246
65%
11%
≈ n187
7
Brayan Rocchio (S)
310
13%
30%
28%
.293
33%
79%
28% n310
64%
13%
≈ n195
8
Patrick Bailey (S)
206
21%
33%
25%
.291
33%
75%
45% n206
60%
13%
≈ n107
9
Angel Genao (S)
13
·
·
·
·
39%
95%
·
60%
12%
·
Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Steven Kwan (L)
P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 5%
FB4%
BRK9%
OFF13%
vs RHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 9% (315 PA)
2
Chase DeLauter (L)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB11%
BRK14%
OFF17%
vs RHP 0.359 xwOBA, K 13% (294 PA)
3
José Ramírez (S)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB11%
BRK17%
OFF18%
vs RHP 0.334 xwOBA, K 14% (265 PA)
4
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB16%
BRK30%
OFF18%
vs RHP 0.363 xwOBA, K 26% (266 PA)
5
Jo Adell (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB20%
BRK33%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.302 xwOBA, K 24% (341 PA)
6
Travis Bazzana (L)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB15%
BRK35%
OFF37%
vs RHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 21% (246 PA)
7
Brayan Rocchio (S)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB13%
BRK30%
OFF28%
vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 14% (310 PA)
8
Patrick Bailey (S)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB21%
BRK33%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.291 xwOBA, K 24% (206 PA)
9
Angel Genao (S)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB·
BRK·
OFF·
only 13 PA vs RHP — too few to split
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Joey Cantillo
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 19% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.259 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.643 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.320 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Edgar Quero
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 69-for-85 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Steven Kwan (L)
27.0 ft/s
5.1% (24/473)
holds
+7 LF
2
Chase DeLauter (L)
26.7 ft/s
3.6% (6/175)
holds
·
3
José Ramírez (S)
27.6 ft/s
16.3% (60/353)
runner
+5 3B
4
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
25.6 ft/s
0.7% (1/284)
holds
·
5
Jo Adell (R)
28.1 ft/s
2.8% (8/309)
holds
-4 RF
6
Travis Bazzana (L)
28.4 ft/s
9.0% (13/136)
occasional
-5 2B
7
Brayan Rocchio (S)
27.4 ft/s
8.8% (24/265)
occasional
+10 SS
8
Patrick Bailey (S)
25.3 ft/s
1.8% (3/209)
holds
·
9
Angel Genao (S)
·
·
no read
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Patrick Bailey — runners went 82-for-105 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
12.5% (28/211)
occasional
·
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.5% (3/144)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.2% (14/339)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/109)
holds
·
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.6% (1/61)
holds
·
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/205)
holds
+6 SS
7
Edgar Quero (S)
24.1 ft/s
0.9% (1/211)
holds
·
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.3% (15/152)
occasional
-5 LF
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.1% (29/166)
runner
-3 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.