CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-11 22:03 UTC
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
2026-08-11, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
Sean Burke (R) against
Nick Lodolo (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-10.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 70%, lowest Brenton Doyle 57% (14 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 3 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. Cincinnati Reds: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their bats highest board probability Tyler Stephenson 15%. see the grid
Run environment board total 9.14, P(over 8.5) 52%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Nick Lodolo (LHP)
1087 pitches, K% 18% overall (281 BF; split withheld, short side only 71 BF)
12 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 96 pitches (IQR 85–97, 12 starts) · fastball -0.8 mph late (9 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1818%
BB%3310%
CSW%2325%
Whiff%2420%
Chase%3629%
xwOBA vs3.382
Hard-hit%4938%
GB%5443%
1st-pitch strike%3560%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.4
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 07/11, 31 days ago
206/17 NYM
606/23 MIL
406/29 MIL
407/05 BAL
407/11 CHC
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
292
20%
29%
94.0
+8
+17
2280
17%
21%
25%
29%
38%
.294
+1.2
sinker
276
38%
21%
93.8
+5
+19
2309
8%
31%
16%
19%
69%
.507
+1.0
curveball
260
40%
19%
82.2
-1
-8
2623
36%
29%
31%
33%
27%
.305
+0.8
changeup
259
1%
31%
88.2
+1
+17
1894
20%
21%
37%
19%
32%
.372
-1.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsinkercurveball
Movement
How to attack
Vs righties he leans changeup (31% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the 4-seam early: 27% of his first pitches, only 17% whiffs, 44% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the curveball below the zone: 36% whiffs, only 36% of them are strikes.
Sean Burke (RHP)
2091 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (321 BF) / 28% vs RHB (208 BF)
23 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–96, 19 starts) · fastball -0.1 mph late (20 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%8127%
BB%657%
CSW%7729%
Whiff%5023%
Chase%7032%
xwOBA vs70.296
Hard-hit%6137%
GB%1936%
1st-pitch strike%7064%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.2
recent starts, K (n=5)
907/10 ATH
507/19 TOR
1007/25 HOU
1007/30 NYY
408/05 BOS
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
784
40%
34%
94.9
+19
-5
2583
23%
27%
36%
50%
44%
.273
-1.4
knuckle-curve
430
26%
13%
79.6
-14
+5
2451
25%
31%
26%
22%
39%
.257
-0.0
slider
381
11%
30%
86.9
+4
+6
2525
31%
36%
33%
16%
41%
.316
+0.2
sinker
308
12%
19%
94.7
+15
-13
2398
10%
22%
29%
8%
48%
.369
+0.3
cutter
140
9%
3%
90.5
+10
+3
2645
27%
36%
37%
2%
·
.271
-2.0
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamknuckle-curveslider
Movement
Attack plan vs Cincinnati Reds
Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Suárez (47%), Hayes (38%).
Careful with Myers: 79% contact, 28% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Nick Lodolo
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
55
.266
25%
36%
67%
40%
57%
6%
≈ n39
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
115
.323
38%
21%
61%
60%
65%
16%
≈ n181
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
158
.412
18%
22%
84%
56%
70%
15%
▼ -8% n192
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
120
.355
26%
36%
80%
49%
60%
12%
≈ n92
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
57
.309
28%
32%
69%
41%
64%
9%
≈ n185
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
147
.327
29%
31%
69%
35%
68%
14%
≈ n181
7
Edgar Quero (S)
78
.268
18%
29%
87%
33%
60%
6%
▲ +10% n64
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
81
.286
19%
25%
88%
22%
66%
9%
▲ +5% n155
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
82
.257
15%
35%
79%
42%
57%
5%
≈ n68
Cincinnati Reds bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
318
18%
38%
34%
.375
26%
74%
30% n318
69%
13%
≈ n176
2
Sal Stewart (R)
383
25%
21%
27%
.338
30%
77%
36% n383
65%
12%
≈ n206
3
JJ Bleday (L)
275
12%
29%
39%
.383
21%
76%
37% n275
63%
13%
≈ n176
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
250
22%
30%
49%
.353
24%
73%
34% n250
65%
15%
≈ n138
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
262
20%
47%
45%
.270
32%
69%
35% n262
53%
15%
≈ n167
6
Héctor Rodríguez (L)
13
·
·
·
·
38%
·
·
49%
7%
·
7
Dane Myers (R)
116
18%
27%
22%
.305
29%
79%
26% n117
59%
7%
≈ n128
8
Matt McLain (R)
260
25%
32%
39%
.307
25%
72%
20% n260
54%
10%
≈ n59
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
131
13%
38%
·
.286
29%
78%
24% n131
50%
9%
▼ -9% n68
Cincinnati Reds hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB18%
BRK38%
OFF34%
vs RHP 0.375 xwOBA, K 26% (318 PA)
2
Sal Stewart (R)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB25%
BRK21%
OFF27%
vs RHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 22% (383 PA)
3
JJ Bleday (L)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB12%
BRK29%
OFF39%
vs RHP 0.383 xwOBA, K 21% (275 PA)
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB22%
BRK30%
OFF49%
vs RHP 0.353 xwOBA, K 28% (250 PA)
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB20%
BRK47%
OFF45%
vs RHP 0.270 xwOBA, K 35% (262 PA)
6
Héctor Rodríguez (L)
P(1+ hit) 49% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB·
BRK·
OFF·
only 13 PA vs RHP — too few to split
7
Dane Myers (R)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB18%
BRK27%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.305 xwOBA, K 28% (116 PA)
8
Matt McLain (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB25%
BRK32%
OFF39%
vs RHP 0.307 xwOBA, K 30% (260 PA)
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
P(1+ hit) 50% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB13%
BRK38%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.286 xwOBA, K 21% (131 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Nick Lodolo
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.500 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 11% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (32 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Edgar Quero
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Cincinnati Reds: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Edgar Quero — runners went 70-for-86 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
28.3 ft/s
13.7% (53/374)
runner
+6 SS
2
Sal Stewart (R)
26.7 ft/s
5.7% (10/173)
holds
+0 1B
3
JJ Bleday (L)
27.5 ft/s
4.8% (11/231)
holds
-2 LF
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
27.0 ft/s
0.8% (1/233)
holds
·
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
25.9 ft/s
1.5% (3/254)
holds
·
6
Héctor Rodríguez (L)
·
·
no read
·
7
Dane Myers (R)
27.9 ft/s
13.2% (27/191)
occasional
+0 CF
8
Matt McLain (R)
28.6 ft/s
8.8% (28/309)
occasional
+2 2B
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
26.9 ft/s
2.7% (6/247)
holds
+0 3B
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Tyler Stephenson — runners went 93-for-114 against him (18% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
12.9% (29/212)
occasional
·
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.5% (3/145)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.2% (14/342)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/109)
holds
·
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.6% (1/62)
holds
·
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/206)
holds
+6 SS
7
Edgar Quero (S)
24.1 ft/s
0.9% (1/215)
holds
·
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.1% (15/155)
occasional
-5 LF
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.1% (29/166)
runner
-3 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.