Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox

2026-08-12, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Luis Castillo (R) against Rhett Lowder (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-11.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their bats highest board probability Elly De La Cruz 18%. see the grid
2Their starter Rhett Lowder, board E[K] 4.3 — 20 apps, median 22 BF.
3Our bats highest board probability Chase Meidroth 68%, lowest Drew Romo 50% (17 points of spread across the nine). see the grid

Pen posture Us: 2 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. Cincinnati Reds: 2 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Run environment board total 9.11, P(over 8.5) 52%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 77°F · 5 mph blowing out to center · air 4.0% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Rhett Lowder (RHP)

1514 pitches, K% 19% vs LHB (251 BF) / 17% vs RHB (149 BF)

20 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 76–95, 17 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (10 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2118%

BB%3410%

CSW%3326%

Whiff%2019%

Chase%1827%

xwOBA vs12.356

Hard-hit%5038%

GB%5643%

1st-pitch strike%2359%

published K forecast: E[K] 4.3

recent starts, K (n=5) last start 08/05, 7 days ago

806/30
MIL

207/18
COL

407/24
STL

507/30
PIT

308/05
ATH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
sinker	445	24%	39%	92.8	+7	-17	2258	7%	29%	22%	23%	64%	.435	-0.7
slider	431	24%	38%	84.9	-1	+3	2775	34%	30%	36%	34%	33%	.278	+1.4
4-seam	315	26%	11%	93.4	+13	-11	2245	11%	24%	20%	23%	51%	.352	-0.7
changeup	300	24%	12%	86.3	+0	-18	1945	25%	19%	26%	20%	27%	.312	+1.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

sinker

slider

4-seam

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the sinker early: 33% of his first pitches, only 7% whiffs, 57% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the slider below the zone: 34% whiffs, only 41% of them are strikes.
Vs lefties he leans 4-seam (26% of pitches to that side).

Luis Castillo (RHP)

1839 pitches, K% 17% vs LHB (272 BF) / 24% vs RHB (190 BF)

21 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 93 pitches (IQR 86–100, 18 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (13 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3120%

BB%737%

CSW%1124%

Whiff%3221%

Chase%7232%

xwOBA vs23.342

Hard-hit%2941%

GB%2838%

1st-pitch strike%9669%

published K forecast: E[K] 5.2

recent starts, K (n=5)

407/03
TOR

407/10
TB

307/21
CIN

207/28
LAD

508/06
BOS

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	813	47%	41%	95.3	+13	-12	2271	24%	24%	34%	50%	40%	.342	+0.6
slider	486	26%	28%	85.5	+1	+1	2242	24%	29%	32%	28%	35%	.319	+1.1
sinker	303	9%	26%	95.5	+4	-18	2075	9%	23%	26%	9%	61%	.412	-0.5
changeup	234	18%	5%	87.6	-0	-17	1942	19%	17%	34%	12%	37%	.291	+1.7

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

slider

sinker

Movement

Attack plan vs Cincinnati Reds

Slider: top breaking whiffs are Suárez (47%), Cruz (38%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Friedl (48%), Suárez (45%).
Careful with Trevino: 79% contact, 18% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Rhett Lowder

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	309	.369	14%	22%	88%	39%	66%	11%	▲ +5% n170
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	246	.401	31%	22%	60%	59%	64%	21%	≈ n184
3	Andrew Benintendi (L)	312	.326	22%	31%	75%	47%	58%	10%	≈ n125
4	Braden Montgomery (S)	148	.321	20%	30%	75%	40%	62%	9%	≈ n189
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	324	.303	35%	33%	64%	45%	62%	14%	≈ n184
6	Chase Meidroth (R)	339	.291	24%	27%	82%	33%	68%	12%	≈ n150
7	Tristan Peters (L)	307	.308	18%	34%	80%	33%	60%	9%	≈ n141
8	Brenton Doyle (R)	89	.247	34%	31%	78%	34%	55%	9%	≈ n42
9	Drew Romo (S)	127	.219	28%	36%	68%	24%	50%	6%	≈ n79

Cincinnati Reds bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Elly De La Cruz (S)	321	18%	38%	34%	.373	26%	74%	30% n321	71%	18%	≈ n174
2	Sal Stewart (R)	387	25%	22%	27%	.336	30%	76%	35% n387	67%	14%	≈ n203
3	JJ Bleday (L)	279	12%	29%	39%	.382	21%	76%	37% n279	64%	15%	≈ n171
4	Eugenio Suárez (R)	266	20%	47%	45%	.277	32%	69%	35% n266	61%	16%	≈ n167
5	Michael Toglia (R)	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	58%	9%	·
6	Héctor Rodríguez (L)	17	·	·	·	.193	42%	72%	·	55%	7%	·
7	Jose Trevino (R)	78	18%	26%	·	.205	40%	79%	·	55%	11%	≈ n46
8	TJ Friedl (L)	204	12%	31%	48%	.241	25%	75%	23% n204	57%	6%	≈ n33
9	Matt McLain (R)	263	24%	33%	39%	.305	25%	72%	19% n263	59%	10%	≈ n71

Cincinnati Reds hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Elly De La Cruz (S)

P(1+ hit) 71% · P(1+ HR) 18%

FB18%

BRK38%

OFF34%

vs RHP 0.373 xwOBA, K 26% (321 PA)

Sal Stewart (R)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB25%

BRK22%

OFF27%

vs RHP 0.336 xwOBA, K 22% (387 PA)

JJ Bleday (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB12%

BRK29%

OFF39%

vs RHP 0.382 xwOBA, K 21% (279 PA)

Eugenio Suárez (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB20%

BRK47%

OFF45%

vs RHP 0.277 xwOBA, K 34% (266 PA)

Michael Toglia (R)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB·

BRK·

OFF·

only 0 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Héctor Rodríguez (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB·

BRK·

OFF·

only 17 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Jose Trevino (R)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB18%

BRK26%

OFF·

vs RHP 0.205 xwOBA, K 18% (78 PA)

TJ Friedl (L)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB12%

BRK31%

OFF48%

vs RHP 0.241 xwOBA, K 23% (204 PA)

Matt McLain (R)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB24%

BRK33%

OFF39%

vs RHP 0.305 xwOBA, K 29% (263 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Rhett Lowder

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.404 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 12% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (26 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.652 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 21% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.444 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.508 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.395 league average in that spot. (17 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 5% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (21 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.418 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.394 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Cincinnati Reds: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 31-for-41 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Elly De La Cruz (S)	28.3 ft/s	13.7% (53/375)	runner	+6 SS
2	Sal Stewart (R)	26.7 ft/s	5.7% (10/174)	holds	+0 1B
3	JJ Bleday (L)	27.5 ft/s	4.8% (11/232)	holds	-2 LF
4	Eugenio Suárez (R)	25.9 ft/s	1.5% (3/254)	holds	·
5	Michael Toglia (R)	·	3.5% (3/96)	holds	·
6	Héctor Rodríguez (L)	·	·	no read	·
7	Jose Trevino (R)	23.4 ft/s	0.9% (0/102)	holds	·
8	TJ Friedl (L)	26.8 ft/s	4.2% (15/364)	holds	+3 CF
9	Matt McLain (R)	28.6 ft/s	8.8% (28/310)	occasional	+2 2B

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Jose Trevino — runners went 65-for-81 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	9.1% (15/155)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.5% (3/145)	holds	+0 1B
3	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.8% (1/244)	holds	·
4	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	2.6% (1/62)	holds	·
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.9% (1/206)	holds	+6 SS
6	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.3% (13/404)	holds	+4 2B
7	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.5% (5/115)	holds	+9 CF
8	Brenton Doyle (R)	28.7 ft/s	12.9% (29/212)	occasional	·
9	Drew Romo (S)	26.1 ft/s	3.7% (1/36)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/08	08/09	08/11	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	·	22	·	1	281p/12g	23%	22%	.297	4-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (27%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	·	·	9 heavy	238p/6g	12%	20%	.364	4-seam 94 (48%) · slider 88 (30%)
Grant Taylor (R)	17	·	36	today heavy	195p/8g	33%	25%	.248	4-seam 98 (41%) · curveball 83 (27%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	8	29	10	today B2B	173p/9g	23%	22%	.313	4-seam 94 (45%) · slurve 83 (32%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	13	14	·	1	162p/10g	26%	23%	.279	sinker 100 (41%) · 4-seam 100 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	13	17	10	today B2B	152p/10g	22%	21%	.291	4-seam 93 (65%) · sweeper 80 (33%)
Chris Murphy (L)	·	·	·	4	142p/8g	22%	27%	.294	4-seam 96 (37%) · slider 90 (31%)
Seranthony Domínguez (R)	·	·	·	8	111p/8g	27%	27%	.344	4-seam 97 (51%) · sweeper 85 (30%)

Cincinnati Reds bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/08	08/09	08/11	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Brock Burke (L)	·	18	18	today B2B	210p/13g	22%	26%	.312	4-seam 96 (44%) · slider 86 (22%)
Tejay Antone (R)	·	31	9	today B2B	199p/10g	22%	25%	.295	sweeper 83 (62%) · curveball 81 (12%)
Julian Garcia (R)	·	·	·	3 heavy	193p/10g	25%	27%	.266	sweeper 82 (60%) · 4-seam 92 (31%)
Sam Moll (L)	12	·	·	2	180p/11g	23%	22%	.337	sinker 92 (35%) · sweeper 81 (34%)
Emilio Pagán (R)	·	·	17	today	153p/10g	26%	25%	.295	4-seam 95 (69%) · splitter 83 (17%)
Pierce Johnson (R)	·	·	8	today	120p/9g	21%	22%	.362	curveball 87 (66%) · 4-seam 96 (34%)
Chase Petty (R)	·	·	·	11	110p/5g	11%	19%	.361	sinker 96 (34%) · changeup 88 (26%)
Caleb Ferguson (L)	·	·	·	8	78p/6g	20%	17%	.329	sinker 92 (35%) · 4-seam 92 (29%)