CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-13 23:34 UTC
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
2026-08-13, 1:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Davis Martin (R) against
Andrew Abbott (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-12.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Chase Meidroth 69%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 53% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Tyler Stephenson 17%. see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 2 threw 35+ last time. Cincinnati Reds: no flags. see bullpens
Their starterAndrew Abbott, board E[K] 4.5 — 24 apps, median 24 BF.
Run environment board total 9.17, P(over 8.5) 53%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 76°F · 5 mph blowing in from center · air 3.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Andrew Abbott (LHP)
2223 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (153 BF) / 14% vs RHB (402 BF)
24 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 88–98, 24 starts) · fastball -0.3 mph late (21 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1918%
BB%2111%
CSW%2726%
Whiff%3021%
Chase%3929%
xwOBA vs25.339
Hard-hit%5038%
GB%5243%
1st-pitch strike%2759%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 08/06, 7 days ago
307/12 CHC
607/20 SEA
407/26 STL
108/01 PIT
408/06 ATH
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
1003
50%
44%
92.5
+17
+7
2342
10%
25%
24%
47%
52%
.407
+0.2
sweeper
453
44%
11%
82.1
-1
-14
2855
26%
24%
38%
31%
31%
.238
+0.1
changeup
414
1%
26%
85.9
+9
+15
1992
37%
27%
33%
16%
19%
.279
-0.6
curveball
297
6%
17%
79.7
-7
-9
2807
22%
29%
19%
6%
22%
.330
+0.3
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsweeperchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 46% of his first pitches, only 10% whiffs, 57% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs lefties he leans sweeper (44% of pitches to that side).
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 37% whiffs, only 34% of them are strikes.
Davis Martin (RHP)
2000 pitches, K% 19% vs LHB (305 BF) / 23% vs RHB (214 BF)
23 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 84–94, 23 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%3721%
BB%667%
CSW%3126%
Whiff%3822%
Chase%7032%
xwOBA vs33.331
Hard-hit%1444%
GB%5243%
1st-pitch strike%1657%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
507/18 TOR
307/24 HOU
607/29 NYY
108/04 BOS
108/09 CLE
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
529
30%
22%
93.9
+14
-5
2411
20%
24%
27%
30%
41%
.313
+0.2
sinker
363
15%
25%
92.8
+8
-14
2397
7%
22%
24%
12%
61%
.354
-1.1
curveball
278
17%
10%
81.7
-8
+14
2879
38%
30%
29%
14%
31%
.282
+0.7
changeup
274
18%
8%
90.2
+1
-13
2123
13%
20%
37%
15%
40%
.343
-1.5
slider
269
5%
27%
87.1
+1
+5
2605
36%
30%
48%
20%
27%
.277
+0.3
cutter
255
16%
9%
89.7
+7
+2
2575
24%
31%
28%
9%
57%
.414
-0.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamsinkercurveball
Movement
Attack plan vs Cincinnati Reds
Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Suárez (48%), Cruz (39%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Stephenson (49%), Friedl (48%).
Careful with Hayes: 78% contact, 20% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Andrew Abbott
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
137
.334
19%
28%
85%
39%
69%
13%
≈ n149
2
Andrew Benintendi (L)
41
.268
37%
42%
66%
25%
·
·
≈ n126
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
160
.418
18%
22%
84%
56%
68%
15%
▼ -8% n185
4
Braden Montgomery (S)
61
.290
30%
31%
69%
39%
60%
8%
≈ n190
5
Munetaka Murakami (L)
118
.318
38%
21%
60%
61%
·
·
≈ n184
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
150
.321
29%
32%
69%
34%
65%
17%
≈ n180
7
Drew Romo (S)
33
.283
21%
32%
78%
24%
·
·
≈ n92
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
84
.286
19%
26%
88%
21%
67%
10%
▲ +5% n173
9
Tristan Peters (L)
40
.249
18%
24%
79%
7%
·
·
≈ n144
Cincinnati Reds bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
325
18%
39%
35%
.369
27%
73%
30% n325
71%
16%
≈ n176
2
Sal Stewart (R)
391
25%
22%
27%
.336
30%
76%
36% n391
66%
13%
≈ n207
3
JJ Bleday (L)
283
12%
28%
40%
.378
21%
76%
37% n283
64%
14%
≈ n176
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
254
21%
30%
49%
.352
24%
73%
33% n254
67%
17%
≈ n143
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
270
20%
48%
45%
.273
32%
69%
36% n270
61%
16%
≈ n162
6
Dane Myers (R)
120
20%
28%
22%
.296
29%
78%
26% n121
61%
7%
▼ -6% n138
7
TJ Friedl (L)
206
12%
31%
48%
.241
25%
75%
23% n206
·
·
≈ n35
8
Matt McLain (R)
265
24%
34%
39%
.310
25%
72%
19% n265
60%
10%
≈ n76
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
133
13%
37%
·
.285
30%
78%
24% n133
54%
10%
≈ n71
Cincinnati Reds hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
P(1+ hit) 71% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB18%
BRK39%
OFF35%
vs RHP 0.369 xwOBA, K 26% (325 PA)
2
Sal Stewart (R)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB25%
BRK22%
OFF27%
vs RHP 0.336 xwOBA, K 22% (391 PA)
3
JJ Bleday (L)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB12%
BRK28%
OFF40%
vs RHP 0.378 xwOBA, K 21% (283 PA)
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 17%
FB21%
BRK30%
OFF49%
vs RHP 0.352 xwOBA, K 28% (254 PA)
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB20%
BRK48%
OFF45%
vs RHP 0.273 xwOBA, K 35% (270 PA)
6
Dane Myers (R)
P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB20%
BRK28%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.296 xwOBA, K 29% (120 PA)
7
TJ Friedl (L)
FB12%
BRK31%
OFF48%
vs RHP 0.241 xwOBA, K 22% (206 PA)
8
Matt McLain (R)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB24%
BRK34%
OFF39%
vs RHP 0.310 xwOBA, K 29% (265 PA)
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB13%
BRK37%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 20% (133 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Andrew Abbott
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Andrew Benintendi
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.259 league average in that spot. (12 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
8. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
Cincinnati Reds: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 31-for-41 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Elly De La Cruz (S)
28.3 ft/s
13.7% (53/375)
runner
+6 SS
2
Sal Stewart (R)
26.7 ft/s
5.6% (10/178)
holds
+0 1B
3
JJ Bleday (L)
27.5 ft/s
4.8% (11/232)
holds
-2 LF
4
Tyler Stephenson (R)
27.0 ft/s
0.8% (1/234)
holds
·
5
Eugenio Suárez (R)
25.9 ft/s
1.5% (3/254)
holds
·
6
Dane Myers (R)
27.9 ft/s
13.1% (27/194)
occasional
+0 CF
7
TJ Friedl (L)
26.8 ft/s
4.2% (15/364)
holds
+3 CF
8
Matt McLain (R)
28.6 ft/s
8.7% (28/312)
occasional
+2 2B
9
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
26.9 ft/s
2.7% (6/247)
holds
+0 3B
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Tyler Stephenson — runners went 93-for-114 against him (18% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.3% (13/405)
holds
+4 2B
2
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/244)
holds
·
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.2% (14/342)
holds
-2 3B
4
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.5% (1/64)
holds
·
5
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.5% (3/146)
holds
+0 1B
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/209)
holds
+6 SS
7
Drew Romo (S)
26.1 ft/s
3.6% (1/38)
holds
·
8
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.5% (16/159)
occasional
-5 LF
9
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.4% (5/117)
holds
+9 CF
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.