Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

2026-08-14, 6:40 PM ET, Comerica Park. Sean Newcomb (L) against Jackson Jobe (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-13.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Our bats highest board probability Sam Antonacci 69%, lowest Drew Romo 52% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their starter Jackson Jobe, board E[K] 5.6 — 1 apps, median 16 BF.
3Pen posture Us: 3 threw 35+ last time. Detroit Tigers: no flags. see bullpens

Run environment board total 9.23, P(over 8.5) 53%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Their bats highest board probability Eduardo Valencia 13%. see the grid
Air 85°F · 10 mph, across · air 5.1% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Jackson Jobe (RHP) limited 2026 sample

71 pitches, K% 25% overall (16 BF; split withheld, short side only 7 BF)

1 apps · median 16 BF · reaches the order 2.0× (max 2) · exit pitch count withheld, only 1 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%6925%

BB%816%

CSW%2425%

Whiff%4322%

Chase%9838%

xwOBA vs89.274

Hard-hit%6236%

GB%9964%

1st-pitch strike%·

published K forecast: E[K] 5.6

recent starts, K (n=1)

408/08
SF

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	29	47%	34%	98.3	+17	-8	2430	24%	28%	44%	48%	·	·	·
slider	18	28%	23%	90.1	+1	+6	2789	18%	28%	·	24%	·	·	·
sinker	9	0%	26%	96.5	+7	-16	2399	·	22%	·	8%	·	·	·
changeup	8	17%	6%	85.8	+6	-15	1827	·	12%	·	12%	·	·	·
curveball	7	8%	11%	81.9	-14	+11	2874	·	29%	·	8%	·	·	·

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

slider

sinker

Movement

How to attack

Vs righties he leans sinker (26% of pitches to that side).
Hunt the slider: 25% usage, only 18% whiffs, 44% in-zone (all counts).
Two strikes: expect the 4-seam (48% of 2-strike pitches vs 41% overall).

Sean Newcomb (LHP)

1016 pitches, K% 23% overall (263 BF; split withheld, short side only 114 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (44 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

44 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exit pitch count withheld, only 1 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5123%

BB%628%

CSW%8730%

Whiff%4022%

Chase%1827%

xwOBA vs53.313

Hard-hit%6836%

GB%7848%

1st-pitch strike%5061%

recent starts, K (n=1) last start 06/20, 55 days ago

406/20
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	377	33%	40%	94.6	+14	+10	2268	29%	33%	30%	43%	52%	.250	-2.0
slurve	333	32%	34%	82.6	-5	-18	2845	28%	35%	27%	34%	40%	.268	-1.6
sinker	229	35%	15%	93.3	+4	+17	2264	7%	25%	24%	13%	49%	.421	+0.3

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

slurve

sinker

Movement

Attack plan vs Detroit Tigers

Slurve: top breaking whiffs are Torres (38%), Dingler (34%).
Careful with McKinstry: 90% contact, 17% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Jackson Jobe

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	314	.369	14%	21%	88%	39%	69%	10%	▲ +4% n181
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	250	.400	31%	23%	60%	59%	66%	17%	≈ n186
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	355	.368	18%	22%	81%	41%	68%	14%	▼ -6% n200
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	316	.324	22%	31%	74%	47%	56%	11%	≈ n129
5	Braden Montgomery (S)	153	.319	20%	29%	75%	40%	63%	10%	≈ n194
6	Colson Montgomery (L)	329	.304	35%	33%	64%	45%	62%	13%	≈ n191
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	344	.288	24%	27%	82%	32%	68%	12%	≈ n155
8	Tristan Peters (L)	312	.307	19%	33%	80%	33%	59%	10%	≈ n146
9	Drew Romo (S)	131	.230	27%	36%	70%	27%	52%	7%	≈ n92

Detroit Tigers bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Gleyber Torres (R)	79	12%	38%	19%	.391	13%	83%	·	65%	11%	≈ n165
2	Dillon Dingler (R)	147	9%	34%	29%	.322	36%	80%	28% n147	66%	12%	≈ n200
3	Kevin McGonigle (L)	152	10%	28%	36%	.287	20%	82%	30% n152	68%	9%	≈ n200
4	Eduardo Valencia (R)	21	29%	·	38%	.373	37%	69%	·	63%	13%	≈ n76
5	Colt Keith (L)	24	0%	·	·	.230	22%	76%	·	60%	9%	≈ n130
6	Spencer Torkelson (R)	131	13%	31%	46%	.326	21%	74%	25% n131	62%	12%	≈ n191
7	Zach McKinstry (L)	66	8%	15%	·	.316	21%	90%	·	62%	7%	≈ n131
8	Ben Malgeri (R)	38	11%	·	68%	.294	27%	72%	·	52%	8%	≈ n56
9	Max Clark (L)	17	5%	·	·	.366	24%	86%	·	64%	10%	·

Detroit Tigers hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Gleyber Torres (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB12%

BRK38%

OFF19%

vs LHP 0.391 xwOBA, K 19% (79 PA)

Dillon Dingler (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB9%

BRK34%

OFF29%

vs LHP 0.322 xwOBA, K 25% (147 PA)

Kevin McGonigle (L)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB10%

BRK28%

OFF36%

vs LHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 20% (152 PA)

Eduardo Valencia (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB29%

BRK·

OFF38%

only 21 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Colt Keith (L)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB0%

BRK·

OFF·

only 24 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Spencer Torkelson (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB13%

BRK31%

OFF46%

vs LHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 27% (131 PA)

Zach McKinstry (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB8%

BRK15%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 17% (66 PA)

Ben Malgeri (R)

P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB11%

BRK·

OFF68%

only 38 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Max Clark (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB5%

BRK·

OFF·

only 17 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Jackson Jobe

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — a spot he goes to often, 14% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.461 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — a spot he goes to often, 14% of his pitches — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.335 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.