Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.440 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 17% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (26 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.670 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.502 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Randal Grichuk
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
5. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.532 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 17% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (73 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.355 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
7. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
8. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
9. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.