CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-17 22:05 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
2026-08-17, 8:05 PM ET, Wrigley Field.
Luis Castillo (R) against
Shota Imanaga (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-16.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 68%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 52% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Pen posture Us: 2 threw 35+ last time. Chicago Cubs: 2 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Air 72°F · 2 mph, across · air 2.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
2161 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (157 BF) / 22% vs RHB (397 BF)
24 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 85–98, 24 starts) · fastball -0.8 mph late (17 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5923%
BB%935%
CSW%6128%
Whiff%8027%
Chase%9436%
xwOBA vs65.303
Hard-hit%6836%
GB%2337%
1st-pitch strike%2459%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
407/19 MIN
407/25 PIT
607/31 NYY
608/05 LAD
508/11 WSH
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
882
37%
42%
91.6
+18
+11
2497
17%
25%
29%
38%
42%
.315
-0.3
splitter
709
15%
40%
82.9
+6
+11
1124
39%
30%
47%
41%
32%
.246
-0.6
sweeper
323
36%
7%
81.1
-1
-14
2537
28%
27%
34%
16%
39%
.353
+1.1
sinker
142
9%
6%
90.1
+10
+16
2462
15%
29%
33%
3%
·
.373
+0.9
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsplittersweeper
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 45% of his first pitches, only 17% whiffs, 49% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs lefties he leans sweeper (36% of pitches to that side).
Lay off the splitter below the zone: 39% whiffs, only 39% of them are strikes.
Luis Castillo (RHP)
1943 pitches, K% 18% vs LHB (285 BF) / 25% vs RHB (200 BF)
22 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 88–100, 19 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (14 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%3721%
BB%727%
CSW%1525%
Whiff%4322%
Chase%7032%
xwOBA vs29.335
Hard-hit%2742%
GB%3339%
1st-pitch strike%9670%
recent starts, K (n=5)
407/10 TB
307/21 CIN
207/28 LAD
508/06 BOS
1008/12 CIN
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
852
46%
40%
95.3
+13
-12
2272
25%
24%
33%
49%
39%
.337
+0.5
slider
503
25%
28%
85.6
+2
+1
2242
25%
30%
33%
27%
34%
.317
+1.0
sinker
331
10%
27%
95.5
+4
-18
2077
9%
23%
26%
11%
57%
.400
-0.8
changeup
254
19%
5%
87.6
-0
-17
1943
23%
19%
34%
13%
38%
.266
+1.0
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamslidersinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Chicago Cubs
Slider: top breaking whiffs are Busch (36%), Happ (34%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Conforto (42%), Busch (42%).
Careful with Hoerner: 89% contact, 8% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Shota Imanaga
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
144
.340
18%
27%
85%
40%
68%
13%
≈ n173
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
122
.323
38%
21%
60%
61%
62%
20%
≈ n209
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
165
.426
17%
23%
85%
57%
68%
16%
▼ -6% n223
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
128
.367
24%
36%
80%
51%
55%
14%
≈ n100
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
67
.296
30%
29%
71%
39%
61%
11%
≈ n222
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
63
.270
25%
35%
68%
37%
54%
11%
≈ n60
7
Sam Antonacci (L)
89
.293
20%
24%
88%
22%
66%
11%
≈ n193
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
86
.254
16%
35%
78%
44%
52%
7%
≈ n72
9
Jake Rogers (R)
27
.281
30%
28%
61%
50%
56%
9%
≈ n43
Chicago Cubs bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
375
22%
28%
28%
.376
36%
75%
41% n376
·
·
≈ n277
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
344
18%
32%
41%
.319
24%
75%
17% n344
·
·
≈ n217
3
Michael Busch (L)
391
13%
36%
42%
.330
26%
75%
37% n391
·
·
≈ n253
4
Alex Bregman (R)
418
8%
26%
20%
.306
23%
85%
20% n418
·
·
≈ n219
5
Ian Happ (S)
380
25%
34%
29%
.333
22%
72%
31% n380
·
·
≈ n212
6
Nico Hoerner (R)
399
6%
19%
19%
.328
32%
89%
24% n399
·
·
≈ n215
7
Pedro Ramírez (S)
116
18%
32%
28%
.283
33%
77%
28% n116
·
·
≈ n154
8
Michael Conforto (L)
211
17%
30%
42%
.310
27%
75%
31% n212
·
·
≈ n100
9
Carson Kelly (R)
211
8%
28%
29%
.289
24%
83%
26% n211
·
·
≈ n116
Chicago Cubs hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
No batter probabilities are published for this game yet — those publish once the lineup posts.
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
FB22%
BRK28%
OFF28%
vs RHP 0.376 xwOBA, K 27% (375 PA)
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
FB18%
BRK32%
OFF41%
vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 27% (344 PA)
3
Michael Busch (L)
FB13%
BRK36%
OFF42%
vs RHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 23% (391 PA)
4
Alex Bregman (R)
FB8%
BRK26%
OFF20%
vs RHP 0.306 xwOBA, K 16% (418 PA)
5
Ian Happ (S)
FB25%
BRK34%
OFF29%
vs RHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 29% (380 PA)
6
Nico Hoerner (R)
FB6%
BRK19%
OFF19%
vs RHP 0.328 xwOBA, K 8% (399 PA)
7
Pedro Ramírez (S)
FB18%
BRK32%
OFF28%
vs RHP 0.283 xwOBA, K 22% (116 PA)
8
Michael Conforto (L)
FB17%
BRK30%
OFF42%
vs RHP 0.310 xwOBA, K 30% (211 PA)
9
Carson Kelly (R)
FB8%
BRK28%
OFF29%
vs RHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 17% (211 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Shota Imanaga
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.664 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.617 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.355 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Chicago Cubs: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 37-for-47 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
29.6 ft/s
19.4% (64/315)
runner
+20 CF
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
27.8 ft/s
1.8% (6/367)
holds
+3 RF
3
Michael Busch (L)
25.9 ft/s
1.7% (6/388)
holds
+4 1B
4
Alex Bregman (R)
26.1 ft/s
1.5% (5/390)
holds
+4 3B
5
Ian Happ (S)
27.8 ft/s
2.8% (11/415)
holds
+0 LF
6
Nico Hoerner (R)
28.4 ft/s
8.5% (40/461)
occasional
+9 2B
7
Pedro Ramírez (S)
27.8 ft/s
10.3% (6/48)
occasional
·
8
Michael Conforto (L)
26.1 ft/s
1.2% (2/237)
holds
·
9
Carson Kelly (R)
25.7 ft/s
1.3% (3/289)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Carson Kelly — runners went 73-for-94 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.3% (13/411)
holds
+4 2B
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.4% (3/153)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.1% (14/348)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/109)
holds
·
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.2% (1/78)
holds
·
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.1% (30/216)
occasional
·
7
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
9.2% (16/165)
occasional
-5 LF
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
16.0% (29/167)
runner
-3 SS
9
Jake Rogers (R)
26.3 ft/s
2.2% (1/78)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.