Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs

2026-08-18, 8:05 PM ET, Wrigley Field. Bryan Hudson (L) against Kevin Gausman (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-17.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their bats highest board probability Pete Crow-Armstrong 20%. see the grid
2Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 70%, lowest Drew Romo 53% (17 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Chicago Cubs: 1 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens

Run environment board total 9.29, P(over 8.5) 53%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Their starter Kevin Gausman, board E[K] 5.0 — 25 apps, median 24 BF.
Air 74°F · 8 mph blowing out to center · air 3.4% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Kevin Gausman (RHP)

2331 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (334 BF) / 27% vs RHB (255 BF)

25 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 94 pitches (IQR 91–97, 25 starts) · fastball +0.1 mph late (22 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5823%

BB%816%

CSW%5327%

Whiff%6124%

Chase%8835%

xwOBA vs55.311

Hard-hit%4339%

GB%3639%

1st-pitch strike%6363%

published K forecast: E[K] 5.0

recent starts, K (n=5)

107/21
TB

607/26
BOS

408/01
STL

408/07
KC

708/13
WSH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	1193	52%	50%	94.0	+17	-11	2281	13%	30%	32%	45%	60%	.346	-0.7
splitter	905	45%	31%	84.2	+5	-14	1574	38%	24%	39%	48%	20%	.236	-0.3
slider	231	3%	19%	84.2	+4	+1	2259	34%	23%	22%	7%	22%	.421	+2.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

splitter

slider

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the 4-seam early: 55% of his first pitches, only 13% whiffs, 64% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the splitter below the zone: 38% whiffs, only 26% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans slider (19% of pitches to that side).

Bryan Hudson (LHP)

848 pitches, K% 23% overall (220 BF; split withheld, short side only 91 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (54 appearances, median 4 batters). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

54 apps · median 4 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 1) · exits at 12 pitches (IQR 8–17, 6 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5123%

BB%757%

CSW%8229%

Whiff%3722%

Chase%324%

xwOBA vs77.289

Hard-hit%6935%

GB%5844%

1st-pitch strike%6263%

recent starts, K (n=5) last start 07/11, 38 days ago

104/26
WSH

105/23
SF

006/14
LAD

206/18
NYY

007/11
ATH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	565	64%	70%	92.0	+12	+10	2201	22%	34%	23%	69%	66%	.283	-1.2
sweeper	222	28%	25%	80.3	-5	-15	2088	22%	19%	29%	28%	17%	.279	+2.1
sinker	42	8%	3%	89.9	+5	+17	2188	27%	33%	9%	3%	·	·	·

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

sweeper

sinker

Movement

Attack plan vs Chicago Cubs

Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Happ (41%), Busch (34%).
Careful with Ramírez: 90% contact, 8% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Kevin Gausman

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	324	.363	14%	21%	88%	38%	66%	13%	≈ n193
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	263	.400	31%	23%	60%	60%	64%	24%	≈ n206
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	370	.367	19%	22%	81%	41%	70%	17%	▼ -5% n222
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	327	.323	22%	31%	74%	46%	55%	11%	≈ n143
5	Braden Montgomery (S)	166	.334	19%	28%	74%	43%	59%	11%	≈ n226
6	Colson Montgomery (L)	339	.302	35%	33%	65%	45%	61%	15%	≈ n218
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	355	.290	24%	26%	83%	33%	66%	12%	≈ n178
8	Tristan Peters (L)	323	.312	18%	34%	80%	33%	61%	11%	≈ n158
9	Drew Romo (S)	138	.236	25%	37%	70%	26%	53%	8%	≈ n107

Chicago Cubs bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	182	19%	33%	·	.337	28%	75%	32% n181	69%	20%	≈ n279
2	Seiya Suzuki (R)	126	9%	20%	29%	.394	19%	84%	17% n126	69%	15%	≈ n223
3	Alex Bregman (R)	141	1%	24%	28%	.345	20%	87%	17% n141	66%	13%	≈ n223
4	Michael Busch (L)	164	9%	34%	·	.331	24%	81%	29% n164	70%	12%	≈ n254
5	Nico Hoerner (R)	139	7%	13%	23%	.332	33%	88%	22% n139	69%	9%	≈ n210
6	Pedro Ramírez (S)	25	11%	·	·	.380	29%	90%	·	64%	9%	≈ n159
7	Ian Happ (S)	134	11%	41%	53%	.245	31%	71%	36% n135	59%	12%	≈ n215
8	Miguel Amaya (R)	63	12%	33%	42%	.333	27%	75%	·	54%	10%	≈ n89
9	Michael Conforto (L)	8	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	56%	11%	≈ n98

Chicago Cubs hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 20%

FB19%

BRK33%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.337 xwOBA, K 28% (182 PA)

Seiya Suzuki (R)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB9%

BRK20%

OFF29%

vs LHP 0.394 xwOBA, K 20% (126 PA)

Alex Bregman (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB1%

BRK24%

OFF28%

vs LHP 0.345 xwOBA, K 14% (141 PA)

Michael Busch (L)

P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB9%

BRK34%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.331 xwOBA, K 21% (164 PA)

Nico Hoerner (R)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB7%

BRK13%

OFF23%

vs LHP 0.332 xwOBA, K 10% (139 PA)

Pedro Ramírez (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB11%

BRK·

OFF·

only 25 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Ian Happ (S)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB11%

BRK41%

OFF53%

vs LHP 0.245 xwOBA, K 34% (134 PA)

Miguel Amaya (R)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB12%

BRK33%

OFF42%

vs LHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 19% (63 PA)

Michael Conforto (L)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB·

BRK·

OFF·

only 8 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Kevin Gausman

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 11% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.365 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 19% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (27 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.418 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 24% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam down-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 6% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (18 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.496 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 25% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (16 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.303 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.260 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.351 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 19% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 45% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (74 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.395 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 20% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +9 points. (27 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.386 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Chicago Cubs: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 31-for-41 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	29.6 ft/s	19.5% (65/318)	runner	+20 CF
2	Seiya Suzuki (R)	27.8 ft/s	1.8% (6/369)	holds	+3 RF
3	Alex Bregman (R)	26.1 ft/s	1.5% (5/392)	holds	+4 3B
4	Michael Busch (L)	25.9 ft/s	1.7% (6/388)	holds	+4 1B
5	Nico Hoerner (R)	28.4 ft/s	8.5% (40/465)	occasional	+9 2B
6	Pedro Ramírez (S)	27.8 ft/s	10.0% (6/50)	occasional	·
7	Ian Happ (S)	27.8 ft/s	2.8% (11/418)	holds	+0 LF
8	Miguel Amaya (R)	25.3 ft/s	1.0% (0/93)	holds	·
9	Michael Conforto (L)	26.1 ft/s	1.2% (2/239)	holds	·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Miguel Amaya — runners went 25-for-34 against him (26% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	9.1% (16/168)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.3% (3/159)	holds	+0 1B
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	28.3 ft/s	4.1% (14/352)	holds	-2 3B
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.8% (1/251)	holds	·
5	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	2.1% (1/81)	holds	·
6	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.9% (1/211)	holds	+6 SS
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.3% (13/411)	holds	+4 2B
8	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.2% (5/124)	holds	+9 CF
9	Drew Romo (S)	26.1 ft/s	3.5% (1/40)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/15	08/16	08/17	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	·	·	19	today	292p/13g	23%	22%	.305	4-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Grant Taylor (R)	11	·	·	2	224p/10g	32%	25%	.245	4-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 83 (28%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	21	·	34	today	215p/12g	27%	24%	.278	sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 100 (28%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	·	33	·	1	206p/10g	23%	23%	.307	4-seam 94 (42%) · slurve 83 (34%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	·	28	today	185p/5g	13%	20%	.360	4-seam 94 (45%) · slider 88 (31%)
Chris Murphy (L)	·	·	·	10	142p/8g	22%	27%	.294	4-seam 96 (37%) · slider 90 (31%)
Erick Fedde (R)	·	·	·	4 heavy	126p/4g	16%	18%	.336	sweeper 82 (35%) · sinker 93 (33%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)	·	9	·	1	99p/6g	22%	24%	.278	sinker 96 (60%) · changeup 91 (26%)

Chicago Cubs bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/15	08/16	08/17	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Aaron Civale (R)	·	35	·	1 heavy	218p/7g	18%	19%	.339	cutter 89 (41%) · curveball 78 (25%)
Ryan Rolison (L)	·	18	15	today B2B	212p/12g	24%	19%	.315	4-seam 95 (37%) · sweeper 85 (25%)
Jacob Webb (R)	·	·	22	today	192p/13g	28%	32%	.298	changeup 86 (44%) · 4-seam 95 (34%)
Caleb Thielbar (L)	7	15	·	1	162p/12g	29%	25%	.339	4-seam 94 (39%) · curveball 76 (33%)
Trent Thornton (R)	7	5	·	1	148p/12g	14%	20%	.335	4-seam 95 (40%) · sweeper 82 (21%)
Javier Assad (R)	·	·	·	5 heavy	133p/4g	16%	13%	.333	sinker 94 (61%) · sweeper 82 (8%)
Ryan Zeferjahn (R)	·	·	24	today	121p/6g	33%	31%	.288	4-seam 97 (56%) · sweeper 85 (38%)
Tyler Ferguson (R)	·	·	·	11	103p/6g	29%	28%	.332	4-seam 96 (49%) · sweeper 84 (17%)