CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-19 22:05 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
2026-08-19, 2:20 PM ET, Wrigley Field.
Sean Newcomb (L) against
Clay Holmes (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-18.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 70%, lowest Jake Rogers 53% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Pete Crow-Armstrong 16%. see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. Chicago Cubs: 1 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their starterClay Holmes, board E[K] 4.5 — 11 apps, median 23 BF.
Run environment board total 8.97, P(over 8.5) 50%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 73°F · 4 mph blowing in from center · air 3.2% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Clay Holmes (RHP)
978 pitches, K% 19% overall (255 BF; split withheld, short side only 103 BF)
11 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 84–94, 11 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (7 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2919%
BB%538%
CSW%4627%
Whiff%1218%
Chase%7933%
xwOBA vs54.312
Hard-hit%1544%
GB%9758%
1st-pitch strike%2959%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
605/03 LAA
605/09 AZ
805/15 NYY
108/08 KC
308/14 STL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sinker
491
49%
52%
93.5
+2
-16
2129
11%
26%
23%
23%
59%
.375
-1.4
sweeper
191
16%
25%
81.9
-4
+16
2857
26%
36%
36%
22%
47%
.184
-1.8
changeup
145
21%
5%
88.7
-1
-9
829
28%
21%
43%
29%
28%
.254
-0.9
curveball
79
8%
8%
81.5
-15
+10
2955
20%
23%
39%
16%
24%
.194
-1.5
cutter
66
4%
11%
88.3
+2
+2
2582
28%
27%
49%
8%
·
.413
+1.6
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
sinkersweeperchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the sinker early: 64% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 55% in-zone on 0-0.
Two strikes: expect the changeup (29% of 2-strike pitches vs 15% overall).
Vs lefties he leans changeup (21% of pitches to that side).
Sean Newcomb (LHP)
1074 pitches, K% 23% overall (276 BF; split withheld, short side only 118 BF)
Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (46 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.
46 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exit pitch count withheld, only 2 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5623%
BB%578%
CSW%8930%
Whiff%4623%
Chase%1827%
xwOBA vs61.307
Hard-hit%6636%
GB%8249%
1st-pitch strike%4261%
recent starts, K (n=2)
406/20 DET
208/14 DET
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
397
33%
40%
94.6
+14
+10
2268
29%
33%
30%
43%
52%
.256
-2.1
slurve
359
32%
35%
82.7
-5
-18
2846
30%
36%
26%
34%
39%
.264
-1.5
sinker
238
35%
14%
93.3
+4
+17
2261
6%
25%
25%
13%
49%
.407
-0.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamslurvesinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Chicago Cubs
Slurve: top breaking whiffs are Happ (41%), Busch (34%).
Careful with Ramírez: 90% contact, 8% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Clay Holmes
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
95
.239
34%
31%
76%
32%
·
·
≈ n64
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
268
.402
31%
22%
60%
60%
66%
21%
≈ n205
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
374
.366
18%
22%
81%
42%
70%
15%
▼ -6% n224
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
67
.290
21%
31%
69%
43%
·
·
≈ n107
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
169
.331
20%
28%
75%
43%
63%
10%
≈ n231
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
342
.304
35%
33%
65%
46%
65%
14%
≈ n218
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
358
.289
24%
26%
83%
33%
68%
11%
≈ n180
8
Tristan Peters (L)
327
.315
18%
34%
79%
33%
63%
10%
≈ n159
9
Jake Rogers (R)
103
.263
28%
23%
76%
34%
53%
7%
≈ n49
Chicago Cubs bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
183
19%
33%
·
.336
28%
75%
32% n182
69%
16%
≈ n275
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
127
9%
20%
29%
.391
19%
84%
17% n127
69%
12%
≈ n221
3
Alex Bregman (R)
142
1%
24%
28%
.343
20%
87%
17% n142
66%
11%
▲ +5% n222
4
Michael Busch (L)
165
9%
34%
·
.338
23%
81%
28% n165
70%
11%
≈ n245
5
Nico Hoerner (R)
140
7%
12%
23%
.331
33%
88%
21% n140
69%
8%
≈ n211
6
Pedro Ramírez (S)
25
11%
·
·
.380
29%
90%
·
64%
8%
≈ n161
7
Carson Kelly (R)
114
8%
31%
37%
.358
28%
79%
32% n114
65%
8%
≈ n119
8
Ian Happ (S)
134
11%
41%
53%
.245
31%
71%
36% n135
59%
10%
≈ n218
9
Michael Conforto (L)
8
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
≈ n105
Chicago Cubs hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB19%
BRK33%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.336 xwOBA, K 28% (183 PA)
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB9%
BRK20%
OFF29%
vs LHP 0.391 xwOBA, K 20% (127 PA)
3
Alex Bregman (R)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB1%
BRK24%
OFF28%
vs LHP 0.343 xwOBA, K 14% (142 PA)
4
Michael Busch (L)
P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB9%
BRK34%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 21% (165 PA)
5
Nico Hoerner (R)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB7%
BRK12%
OFF23%
vs LHP 0.331 xwOBA, K 10% (140 PA)
6
Pedro Ramírez (S)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB11%
BRK·
OFF·
only 25 PA vs LHP — too few to split
7
Carson Kelly (R)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB8%
BRK31%
OFF37%
vs LHP 0.358 xwOBA, K 18% (114 PA)
8
Ian Happ (S)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB11%
BRK41%
OFF53%
vs LHP 0.245 xwOBA, K 34% (134 PA)
9
Michael Conforto (L)
FB·
BRK·
OFF·
only 8 PA vs LHP — too few to split
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Clay Holmes
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.640 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 21% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.496 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
5. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.522 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.395 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Chicago Cubs: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 38-for-48 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)
29.6 ft/s
19.3% (65/321)
runner
+20 CF
2
Seiya Suzuki (R)
27.8 ft/s
1.8% (6/369)
holds
+3 RF
3
Alex Bregman (R)
26.1 ft/s
1.5% (5/393)
holds
+4 3B
4
Michael Busch (L)
25.9 ft/s
1.7% (6/389)
holds
+4 1B
5
Nico Hoerner (R)
28.4 ft/s
8.4% (40/467)
occasional
+9 2B
6
Pedro Ramírez (S)
27.8 ft/s
9.8% (6/51)
occasional
·
7
Carson Kelly (R)
25.7 ft/s
1.3% (3/290)
holds
·
8
Ian Happ (S)
27.8 ft/s
2.7% (11/421)
holds
+0 LF
9
Michael Conforto (L)
26.1 ft/s
1.2% (2/242)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Carson Kelly — runners went 73-for-94 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.1% (30/216)
occasional
·
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.3% (3/160)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.0% (14/353)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/109)
holds
·
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
2.1% (1/81)
holds
·
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/212)
holds
+6 SS
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.3% (13/412)
holds
+4 2B
8
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.2% (5/125)
holds
+9 CF
9
Jake Rogers (R)
26.3 ft/s
2.1% (1/81)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.