CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-21 23:36 UTC
New York Mets at Chicago White Sox
2026-08-21, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
Sean Burke (R) against
Sean Manaea (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-20.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
2Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 68%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 51% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Run environment board total 8.81, P(over 8.5) 49%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. New York Mets: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their bats highest board probability Francisco Lindor 13%. see the grid
Air 76°F · 3 mph blowing in from center · air 3.5% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Sean Manaea (LHP)
1892 pitches, K% 30% vs LHB (155 BF) / 20% vs RHB (328 BF)
26 apps · median 19 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 88–98, 12 starts) · fastball -1.5 mph late (10 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5823%
BB%618%
CSW%5227%
Whiff%3922%
Chase%5831%
xwOBA vs35.328
Hard-hit%2642%
GB%3740%
1st-pitch strike%2559%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
307/24 LAD
407/29 ATL
708/04 CLE
1108/09 PIT
708/15 WSH
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
731
27%
44%
91.1
+11
+13
2050
21%
30%
28%
46%
59%
.320
-0.9
sweeper
583
35%
29%
75.8
+2
-13
2278
31%
26%
33%
36%
30%
.276
+1.9
sinker
379
31%
15%
90.3
+4
+18
2053
7%
25%
29%
9%
57%
.375
-0.4
cutter
133
6%
8%
84.2
+7
-2
2143
31%
30%
37%
5%
50%
.418
+2.8
changeup
66
1%
5%
83.1
+2
+15
1581
15%
9%
24%
5%
44%
.397
+2.5
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsweepersinker
Movement
How to attack
Vs righties he leans 4-seam (44% of pitches to that side).
K rate splits 30% vs LHB / 20% vs RHB: the right-handed side of the platoon wears him better.
Hunt the sinker early: 23% of his first pitches, only 7% whiffs, 56% in-zone on 0-0.
Sean Burke (RHP)
2257 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (341 BF) / 26% vs RHB (234 BF)
25 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–95, 21 starts) · fastball -0.0 mph late (21 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%8027%
BB%677%
CSW%7829%
Whiff%5123%
Chase%7433%
xwOBA vs72.295
Hard-hit%6037%
GB%1736%
1st-pitch strike%7064%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.4
recent starts, K (n=5)
1007/25 HOU
1007/30 NYY
408/05 BOS
808/11 CIN
208/16 DET
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
841
39%
35%
94.9
+19
-4
2583
22%
26%
37%
51%
43%
.268
-1.5
knuckle-curve
462
26%
13%
79.4
-14
+5
2452
26%
31%
27%
22%
40%
.256
-0.0
slider
422
11%
30%
86.7
+4
+5
2525
32%
37%
36%
15%
42%
.327
+0.2
sinker
324
12%
18%
94.7
+15
-13
2400
10%
22%
29%
8%
49%
.368
+0.3
cutter
159
9%
4%
90.4
+10
+3
2637
26%
36%
31%
2%
·
.287
-2.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamknuckle-curveslider
Movement
Attack plan vs New York Mets
Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Alvarez (39%), Young (36%).
Careful with Bichette: 82% contact, 19% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Sean Manaea
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
149
.328
20%
28%
83%
39%
63%
10%
≈ n189
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
126
.337
37%
21%
60%
62%
62%
16%
≈ n208
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
169
.429
17%
22%
85%
57%
68%
13%
≈ n215
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
133
.363
24%
37%
80%
49%
56%
12%
≈ n100
5
Colson Montgomery (L)
160
.313
29%
32%
70%
34%
60%
16%
≈ n214
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
67
.253
27%
35%
66%
35%
52%
11%
≈ n67
7
Luisangel Acuña (R)
90
.255
17%
35%
76%
44%
51%
6%
≈ n76
8
Jake Rogers (R)
31
.307
29%
25%
60%
47%
54%
8%
≈ n55
9
Tristan Peters (L)
43
.253
19%
23%
79%
10%
57%
8%
≈ n154
New York Mets bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
A.J. Ewing (L)
262
13%
26%
33%
.330
28%
79%
35% n262
64%
9%
≈ n220
2
Francisco Lindor (S)
216
21%
28%
28%
.358
27%
76%
23% n216
65%
13%
≈ n237
3
Bo Bichette (R)
404
10%
29%
26%
.315
41%
82%
32% n404
68%
10%
≈ n247
4
Carson Benge (L)
375
13%
24%
31%
.344
28%
81%
27% n375
65%
10%
≈ n201
5
Jared Young (L)
213
16%
36%
21%
.332
27%
77%
26% n213
62%
9%
≈ n145
6
Luis Robert Jr. (R)
130
22%
31%
35%
.269
33%
74%
42% n130
60%
10%
≈ n167
7
Brett Baty (L)
314
19%
32%
39%
.316
31%
74%
37% n314
55%
12%
≈ n105
8
Marcus Semien (R)
309
18%
30%
25%
.287
30%
76%
43% n309
54%
9%
≈ n168
9
Francisco Alvarez (R)
238
24%
39%
24%
.340
31%
71%
32% n239
56%
11%
≈ n153
New York Mets hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
A.J. Ewing (L)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB13%
BRK26%
OFF33%
vs RHP 0.330 xwOBA, K 26% (262 PA)
2
Francisco Lindor (S)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB21%
BRK28%
OFF28%
vs RHP 0.358 xwOBA, K 22% (216 PA)
3
Bo Bichette (R)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB10%
BRK29%
OFF26%
vs RHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 19% (404 PA)
4
Carson Benge (L)
P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB13%
BRK24%
OFF31%
vs RHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 20% (375 PA)
5
Jared Young (L)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB16%
BRK36%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.332 xwOBA, K 17% (213 PA)
6
Luis Robert Jr. (R)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB22%
BRK31%
OFF35%
vs RHP 0.269 xwOBA, K 25% (130 PA)
7
Brett Baty (L)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB19%
BRK32%
OFF39%
vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 26% (314 PA)
8
Marcus Semien (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB18%
BRK30%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 22% (309 PA)
9
Francisco Alvarez (R)
P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB24%
BRK39%
OFF24%
vs RHP 0.340 xwOBA, K 26% (238 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Sean Manaea
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.664 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 14% for a typical hitter — +3 points. (15 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 12% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 37% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (35 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.405 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
7. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
New York Mets: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 38-for-48 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
A.J. Ewing (L)
29.5 ft/s
13.7% (20/133)
runner
+3 CF
2
Francisco Lindor (S)
26.6 ft/s
8.2% (29/344)
occasional
+2 SS
3
Bo Bichette (R)
26.0 ft/s
1.7% (6/407)
holds
+1 3B
4
Carson Benge (L)
28.5 ft/s
8.5% (17/191)
occasional
+0 RF
5
Jared Young (L)
27.7 ft/s
3.2% (3/109)
holds
·
6
Luis Robert Jr. (R)
29.0 ft/s
19.6% (43/204)
runner
·
7
Brett Baty (L)
26.9 ft/s
5.1% (13/255)
holds
-2 3B
8
Marcus Semien (R)
28.1 ft/s
7.3% (21/282)
occasional
-5 2B
9
Francisco Alvarez (R)
25.5 ft/s
0.5% (0/212)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Francisco Alvarez — runners went 58-for-74 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.3% (13/413)
holds
+4 2B
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.3% (3/161)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.0% (14/357)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/109)
holds
·
5
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/214)
holds
+6 SS
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.1% (30/216)
occasional
·
7
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
15.9% (29/168)
runner
-3 SS
8
Jake Rogers (R)
26.3 ft/s
2.1% (1/82)
holds
·
9
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.1% (5/129)
holds
+9 CF
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.