New York Mets at Chicago White Sox

2026-08-22, 7:10 PM ET, Rate Field. Luis Castillo (R) against Christian Scott (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-21.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their starter Christian Scott, board E[K] 6.1 — 18 apps, median 20 BF.
2Run environment board total 8.65, P(over 8.5) 47%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
3Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 69%, lowest Drew Romo 50% (18 points of spread across the nine). see the grid

Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. New York Mets: 2 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their bats highest board probability Francisco Lindor 14%. see the grid
Air 74°F · 3 mph blowing out to center · air 3.2% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Christian Scott (RHP)

1534 pitches, K% 29% vs LHB (229 BF) / 28% vs RHB (138 BF)

18 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 82–93, 18 starts) · fastball -0.8 mph late (10 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%8629%

BB%3510%

CSW%5627%

Whiff%6125%

Chase%5831%

xwOBA vs65.304

Hard-hit%7535%

GB%1234%

1st-pitch strike%3960%

published K forecast: E[K] 6.1

recent starts, K (n=5)

607/22
MIL

707/29
ATL

708/05
CLE

608/10
ATL

708/16
WSH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	740	48%	49%	95.5	+15	-10	2300	26%	29%	29%	48%	49%	.330	+0.3
sweeper	356	16%	35%	81.4	+5	+17	2509	29%	29%	33%	25%	38%	.235	-0.7
cutter	272	22%	11%	89.5	+6	+3	2424	22%	28%	30%	11%	58%	.301	-2.7
curveball	84	8%	2%	82.0	-6	+9	2673	12%	14%	42%	12%	53%	.269	+4.8
splitter	51	5%	0%	84.6	+2	-12	1015	14%	10%	26%	4%	·	.447	+0.8

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

sweeper

cutter

Movement

How to attack

Vs righties he leans sweeper (35% of pitches to that side).

Luis Castillo (RHP)

2042 pitches, K% 17% vs LHB (298 BF) / 24% vs RHB (211 BF)

23 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 89–100, 20 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3320%

BB%747%

CSW%1625%

Whiff%4322%

Chase%7032%

xwOBA vs21.343

Hard-hit%2742%

GB%3439%

1st-pitch strike%9770%

published K forecast: E[K] 5.1

recent starts, K (n=5)

307/21
CIN

207/28
LAD

508/06
BOS

1008/12
CIN

108/17
CHC

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	870	46%	39%	95.3	+12	-12	2270	25%	24%	33%	48%	39%	.350	+0.8
slider	523	24%	28%	85.6	+2	+1	2240	26%	30%	33%	27%	35%	.324	+0.9
sinker	365	10%	28%	95.5	+4	-18	2076	9%	24%	25%	11%	59%	.400	-0.9
changeup	281	20%	6%	87.6	-1	-17	1948	23%	19%	34%	14%	38%	.271	+1.0

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

slider

sinker

Movement

Attack plan vs New York Mets

Slider: top breaking whiffs are Alvarez (40%), Young (35%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Baty (39%), Robert Jr. (35%).
Careful with Bichette: 82% contact, 19% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Christian Scott

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	338	.362	14%	21%	87%	37%	63%	9%	≈ n172
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	276	.396	31%	22%	60%	57%	58%	18%	≈ n211
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	383	.368	19%	23%	81%	42%	69%	17%	≈ n213
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	338	.323	22%	31%	74%	46%	54%	8%	≈ n142
5	Braden Montgomery (S)	175	.328	19%	28%	75%	43%	59%	7%	≈ n210
6	Colson Montgomery (L)	347	.302	35%	33%	64%	46%	55%	10%	≈ n223
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	365	.289	24%	27%	82%	33%	62%	10%	≈ n193
8	Tristan Peters (L)	333	.314	18%	33%	79%	33%	57%	8%	≈ n154
9	Drew Romo (S)	143	.242	25%	36%	69%	27%	50%	5%	≈ n97

New York Mets bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	A.J. Ewing (L)	266	13%	26%	33%	.326	28%	79%	35% n266	65%	10%	≈ n209
2	Francisco Lindor (S)	220	20%	27%	28%	.353	27%	76%	22% n220	68%	14%	≈ n237
3	Bo Bichette (R)	407	10%	29%	26%	.314	41%	82%	33% n407	69%	10%	≈ n253
4	Carson Benge (L)	378	13%	24%	31%	.343	29%	81%	28% n378	67%	11%	≈ n200
5	Jared Young (L)	216	16%	35%	21%	.333	27%	78%	27% n216	66%	9%	≈ n146
6	Luis Robert Jr. (R)	134	23%	31%	35%	.271	33%	74%	44% n134	63%	12%	≈ n167
7	Brett Baty (L)	318	18%	33%	39%	.318	31%	74%	37% n318	58%	13%	≈ n112
8	Marcus Semien (R)	313	19%	31%	25%	.287	29%	76%	42% n313	61%	9%	≈ n166
9	Francisco Alvarez (R)	242	25%	40%	24%	.337	32%	70%	33% n243	58%	12%	≈ n165

New York Mets hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

A.J. Ewing (L)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB13%

BRK26%

OFF33%

vs RHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 26% (266 PA)

Francisco Lindor (S)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB20%

BRK27%

OFF28%

vs RHP 0.353 xwOBA, K 21% (220 PA)

Bo Bichette (R)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB10%

BRK29%

OFF26%

vs RHP 0.314 xwOBA, K 19% (407 PA)

Carson Benge (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB13%

BRK24%

OFF31%

vs RHP 0.343 xwOBA, K 20% (378 PA)

Jared Young (L)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB16%

BRK35%

OFF21%

vs RHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 17% (216 PA)

Luis Robert Jr. (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB23%

BRK31%

OFF35%

vs RHP 0.271 xwOBA, K 25% (134 PA)

Brett Baty (L)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB18%

BRK33%

OFF39%

vs RHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 26% (318 PA)

Marcus Semien (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB19%

BRK31%

OFF25%

vs RHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 22% (313 PA)

Francisco Alvarez (R)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB25%

BRK40%

OFF24%

vs RHP 0.337 xwOBA, K 27% (242 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Christian Scott

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 12% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.421 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 24% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (27 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.640 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up-middle on 6% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 18% for a typical hitter — +3 points. (38 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 25% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (16 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.407 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 22% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.522 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 24% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (76 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.386 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.349 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (29 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

New York Mets: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 31-for-41 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	A.J. Ewing (L)	29.5 ft/s	13.7% (20/133)	runner	+3 CF
2	Francisco Lindor (S)	26.6 ft/s	8.2% (29/344)	occasional	+2 SS
3	Bo Bichette (R)	26.0 ft/s	1.7% (6/407)	holds	+1 3B
4	Carson Benge (L)	28.5 ft/s	8.4% (17/194)	occasional	+0 RF
5	Jared Young (L)	27.7 ft/s	3.1% (3/110)	holds	·
6	Luis Robert Jr. (R)	29.0 ft/s	19.3% (43/207)	runner	·
7	Brett Baty (L)	26.9 ft/s	5.1% (13/256)	holds	-2 3B
8	Marcus Semien (R)	28.1 ft/s	7.2% (21/286)	occasional	-5 2B
9	Francisco Alvarez (R)	25.5 ft/s	0.5% (0/212)	holds	·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Francisco Alvarez — runners went 58-for-74 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	8.8% (16/174)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.3% (3/162)	holds	+0 1B
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	28.3 ft/s	4.0% (14/358)	holds	-2 3B
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.8% (1/256)	holds	·
5	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	2.0% (1/84)	holds	·
6	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.9% (1/214)	holds	+6 SS
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.3% (13/413)	holds	+4 2B
8	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.1% (5/129)	holds	+9 CF
9	Drew Romo (S)	26.1 ft/s	3.3% (1/43)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/19	08/20	08/21	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	·	20	·	1	307p/13g	23%	22%	.309	4-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Grant Taylor (R)	12	·	15	today	259p/12g	33%	26%	.245	4-seam 98 (42%) · curveball 83 (27%)
Erick Fedde (R)	·	·	·	3 heavy	204p/5g	16%	18%	.332	sweeper 82 (36%) · sinker 94 (32%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	·	·	15	today	203p/11g	27%	24%	.273	sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 100 (30%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	·	·	11	today	171p/12g	23%	21%	.290	4-seam 92 (67%) · sweeper 79 (31%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	·	·	·	5	167p/8g	23%	22%	.310	4-seam 94 (40%) · slurve 83 (38%)
Chris Murphy (L)	·	·	·	14	127p/7g	22%	27%	.294	4-seam 96 (35%) · slider 90 (30%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	·	·	4	124p/4g	13%	20%	.360	4-seam 94 (43%) · slider 88 (34%)

New York Mets bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	08/18	08/19	08/21	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Daniel Duarte (R)	·	10	8	today B2B	264p/14g	25%	20%	.236	cutter 89 (34%) · sweeper 81 (28%)
Jonathan Pintaro (R)	·	13	·	1	113p/5g	23%	24%	.323	cutter 91 (59%) · sinker 95 (19%)
Jefry Yan (L)	8	·	11	today	110p/7g	23%	33%	.365	sinker 98 (48%) · slider 87 (27%)
Kodai Senga (R)	·	21	·	1	96p/6g	26%	27%	.340	4-seam 97 (61%) · forkball 84 (26%)
Devin Williams (R)	·	·	·	12	89p/5g	28%	32%	.291	4-seam 94 (62%) · changeup 82 (34%)
Nate Lavender (L)	·	9	14	today B2B	87p/8g	40%	31%	.195	4-seam 93 (60%) · slider 86 (21%)
Cionel Pérez (L)	·	·	·	20	81p/4g	23%	23%	.346	slurve 86 (42%) · 4-seam 97 (31%)
Jack Weisenburger (R)	35	·	·	2 heavy	79p/3g	22%	21%	.257	sweeper 82 (32%) · 4-seam 95 (25%)