Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (27 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.618 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 21% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (27 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.496 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Luisangel Acuña
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.367 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.266 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
5. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.522 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 11% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 39% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (16 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Chase Meidroth
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (16 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.395 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.333 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Tristan Peters
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and away on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 19% of the time there, against 16% for a typical hitter — +3 points. (19 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.386 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.