Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox

2026-08-24, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. José Urquidy (R) against Kumar Rocker (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-23.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Kumar Rocker (RHP)

2032 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (294 BF) / 21% vs RHB (235 BF)

24 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 86 pitches (IQR 83–92, 22 starts) · fastball -1.0 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3721%
BB%429%
CSW%2325%
Whiff%6024%
Chase%6131%
xwOBA vs31.333
Hard-hit%3441%
GB%5143%
1st-pitch strike%856%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
707/27
SEA
508/02
HOU
508/09
BAL
308/14
ATH
308/19
WSH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
slider77738%38%83.1-4+1218340%33%40%58%29%.229-0.7
sinker60221%41%94.3+8-1621388%20%26%17%61%.381+0.7
cutter28915%13%90.3+7+1216019%23%29%7%36%.439+0.7
4-seam25917%7%94.5+12-10215620%21%17%15%44%.354-0.0
changeup938%0%88.6+6-14164224%20%24%2%·.502-0.2

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

slider
sinker
cutter

Movement

slider: -4 IVB, +1 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +1 HB4-seam: +12 IVB, -10 HBchangeup: +6 IVB, -14 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the sinker early: 31% of his first pitches, only 8% whiffs, 52% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Two strikes: expect the slider (58% of 2-strike pitches vs 38% overall).
  • Lay off the slider below the zone: 40% whiffs, only 38% of them are strikes.

José Urquidy (RHP) limited 2026 sample

252 pitches, K% 24% overall (71 BF; split withheld, short side only 35 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (7 appearances, median 9 batters, deepest 3×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

7 apps · median 9 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 3) · exits at 31 pitches (IQR 26–44, 7 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%6324%
BB%1003%
CSW%9832%
Whiff%5524%
Chase%9536%
xwOBA vs88.275
Hard-hit%7635%
GB%3038%
1st-pitch strike%9669%

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
changeup7540%21%83.7+9-18211531%33%53%39%50%.209+1.2
4-seam5427%17%92.9+19-9230815%22%43%15%·.291-0.4
sinker499%28%92.9+13-1521890%33%·17%·.401·
curveball4016%16%77.5-12+102735·38%16%13%···
sweeper327%18%81.2+3+10261550%41%25%14%···

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
changeup
4-seam
sinker

Movement

changeup: +9 IVB, -18 HB4-seam: +19 IVB, -9 HBsinker: +13 IVB, -15 HBcurveball: -12 IVB, +10 HBsweeper: +3 IVB, +10 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Texas Rangers

  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Burger (46%), Carter (37%).
  • Curveball/sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Burger (39%), Seager (37%).
  • Careful with Freeman: 84% contact, 29% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Kumar Rocker

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)347.36114%21%87%37%64%6%n182
2Munetaka Murakami (L)285.38932%23%60%57%62%18%n220
3Miguel Vargas (R)392.37018%22%81%42%67%16%n218
4Andrew Benintendi (L)347.32022%32%74%46%58%11%n154
5Braden Montgomery (S)184.33320%27%75%43%62%8%▼ -5% n222
6Colson Montgomery (L)356.29536%33%64%45%60%12%n235
7Chase Meidroth (R)374.28724%27%82%33%68%9%n201
8Tristan Peters (L)341.31818%33%79%34%59%10%n159
9Drew Romo (S)146.25025%37%69%27%53%6%n100

Texas Rangers bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Joc Pederson (L)35625%31%30%.35330%72%32% n35655%13%n169
2Corey Seager (L)21024%37%32%.35428%71%53% n21059%13%n160
3Wyatt Langford (R)22917%27%34%.31728%79%39% n22963%10%n228
4Brandon Nimmo (L)37316%22%19%.37029%82%33% n37362%10%n249
5Ezequiel Duran (R)34719%36%23%.29738%74%40% n34862%10%n242
6Evan Carter (L)30616%35%37%.30819%75%26% n30654%8%n136
7Jake Burger (R)36924%39%46%.29538%68%42% n36957%11%n174
8Elias Díaz (R)9923%36%·.23435%72%·55%10%n136
9Cody Freeman (R)179%··.25724%84%·51%6%n41

Texas Rangers hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Joc Pederson (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB25%
BRK31%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.353 xwOBA, K 22% (356 PA)

2

Corey Seager (L)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB24%
BRK37%
OFF32%

vs RHP 0.354 xwOBA, K 23% (210 PA)

3

Wyatt Langford (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB17%
BRK27%
OFF34%

vs RHP 0.317 xwOBA, K 21% (229 PA)

4

Brandon Nimmo (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB16%
BRK22%
OFF19%

vs RHP 0.370 xwOBA, K 22% (373 PA)

5

Ezequiel Duran (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB19%
BRK36%
OFF23%

vs RHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 24% (347 PA)

6

Evan Carter (L)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB16%
BRK35%
OFF37%

vs RHP 0.308 xwOBA, K 22% (306 PA)

7

Jake Burger (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB24%
BRK39%
OFF46%

vs RHP 0.295 xwOBA, K 27% (369 PA)

8

Elias Díaz (R)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB23%
BRK36%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.234 xwOBA, K 25% (99 PA)

9

Cody Freeman (R)

P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB9%
BRK·
OFF·

only 17 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Kumar Rocker

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.421 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 9% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (28 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.618 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 12% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.502 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and away on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 27% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +18 points. (16 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.443 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.505 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 9% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 39% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.530 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up and in on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (27 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.415 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Texas Rangers: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 33-for-44 against him (25% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Joc Pederson (L)25.1 ft/s1.7% (3/227)holds·
2Corey Seager (L)25.0 ft/s1.7% (4/273)holds+1 SS
3Wyatt Langford (R)28.5 ft/s8.0% (26/319)occasional+2 LF
4Brandon Nimmo (L)28.1 ft/s4.5% (17/385)holds-2 RF
5Ezequiel Duran (R)29.0 ft/s9.4% (22/224)occasional+10 SS
6Evan Carter (L)28.9 ft/s13.2% (27/192)occasional+7 CF
7Jake Burger (R)27.2 ft/s2.3% (5/248)holds+3 1B
8Elias Díaz (R)24.4 ft/s0.9% (0/100)holds·
9Cody Freeman (R)·4.5% (2/48)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Elias Díaz — runners went 40-for-51 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.5% (16/180)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.2% (3/164)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s3.9% (14/366)holds-2 3B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/260)holds·
5Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s2.0% (1/88)holds·
6Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/214)holds+6 SS
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (13/415)holds+4 2B
8Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (5/131)holds+9 CF
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s3.2% (1/46)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2108/2208/23 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·26·1333p/14g22%22%.3104-seam 92 (62%) · changeup 80 (28%)
Erick Fedde (R)··56today heavy260p/6g16%18%.336sweeper 82 (37%) · sinker 94 (33%)
Grant Taylor (R)15·29today260p/12g32%26%.2474-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 83 (27%)
Jordan Hicks (R)15··2184p/10g27%24%.273sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 100 (30%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)·51·1 heavy175p/5g12%20%.361slider 88 (39%) · 4-seam 94 (38%)
Sean Newcomb (L)···7167p/8g23%22%.3064-seam 94 (40%) · slurve 83 (38%)
Bryan Hudson (L)11··2159p/11g23%21%.2904-seam 92 (68%) · sweeper 79 (30%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)·26·1145p/9g22%24%.290sinker 96 (52%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Texas Rangers bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2108/2208/23 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Peyton Gray (R)·1921today B2B254p/15g23%23%.3014-seam 93 (48%) · changeup 83 (33%)
Jacob Latz (L)24·24today233p/10g30%28%.2464-seam 95 (54%) · changeup 86 (23%)
Tyler Alexander (L)23·13today223p/14g20%21%.2874-seam 92 (30%) · sweeper 81 (22%)
Cole Winn (R)1317·1180p/12g23%26%.3344-seam 96 (35%) · slider 86 (27%)
Robby Ahlstrom (L)·21·1180p/13g22%26%.3194-seam 94 (33%) · slider 86 (29%)
Chase Silseth (R)14·3today161p/12g27%30%.3244-seam 96 (52%) · sweeper 85 (30%)
Ben Peoples (R)···9142p/8g14%21%.3054-seam 96 (56%) · slider 88 (38%)
Jakob Junis (R)···375p/7g18%19%.309sweeper 82 (45%) · 4-seam 93 (24%)