CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-08-26 21:37 UTC
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
2026-08-26, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
Sean Burke (R) against
MacKenzie Gore (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-25.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
2Pen posture Us: 4 threw 35+ last time. Texas Rangers: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
3Their bats highest board probability Corey Seager 14%. see the grid
Run environment board total 8.96, P(over 8.5) 50%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Our bats highest board probability Chase Meidroth 63%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 49% (14 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Air 83°F · 8 mph blowing out to center · air 4.7% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
2470 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (157 BF) / 28% vs RHB (462 BF)
27 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 90–99, 27 starts) · fastball -0.4 mph late (24 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7526%
BB%518%
CSW%4226%
Whiff%6425%
Chase%6331%
xwOBA vs65.303
Hard-hit%2642%
GB%3239%
1st-pitch strike%2659%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.8
recent starts, K (n=5)
907/29 TB
408/04 SF
908/10 LAA
508/15 ATH
708/21 LAA
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
1149
35%
50%
95.3
+16
+7
2245
21%
26%
27%
41%
45%
.303
-1.1
curveball
456
5%
23%
81.7
-11
-3
2267
29%
30%
36%
23%
34%
.309
+0.9
changeup
301
0%
16%
86.4
+10
+13
1964
40%
26%
36%
15%
30%
.215
-1.1
slider
256
41%
0%
85.7
+3
-4
2079
28%
28%
30%
11%
38%
.275
-0.9
cutter
174
0%
9%
89.9
+8
-2
1928
24%
24%
28%
6%
53%
.405
+1.5
sinker
133
19%
1%
95.2
+14
+14
2124
9%
21%
42%
4%
42%
.364
-0.6
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamcurveballchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Vs lefties he leans slider (41% of pitches to that side).
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 40% whiffs, only 32% of them are strikes.
K rate splits 21% vs LHB / 28% vs RHB: the left-handed side of the platoon wears him better.
Sean Burke (RHP)
2355 pitches, K% 26% vs LHB (356 BF) / 26% vs RHB (244 BF)
26 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–97, 22 starts) · fastball -0.0 mph late (22 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%7726%
BB%727%
CSW%7729%
Whiff%5123%
Chase%7833%
xwOBA vs73.295
Hard-hit%5537%
GB%1936%
1st-pitch strike%7565%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.9
recent starts, K (n=5)
1007/30 NYY
408/05 BOS
808/11 CIN
208/16 DET
408/21 NYM
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
872
39%
35%
94.9
+19
-4
2585
22%
26%
37%
50%
44%
.270
-1.4
knuckle-curve
478
26%
13%
79.4
-14
+5
2453
26%
31%
27%
21%
39%
.255
+0.5
slider
441
11%
31%
86.7
+4
+5
2528
32%
37%
37%
16%
42%
.326
-0.1
sinker
336
12%
18%
94.7
+15
-13
2403
9%
21%
30%
9%
49%
.357
-0.0
cutter
177
10%
4%
90.3
+10
+3
2643
26%
37%
30%
3%
·
.290
-1.8
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamknuckle-curveslider
Movement
Attack plan vs Texas Rangers
Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Díaz (36%), Seager (36%).
Careful with Freeman: 88% contact, 22% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs MacKenzie Gore
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
174
.441
17%
22%
85%
57%
62%
16%
≈ n217
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
132
.331
37%
21%
61%
62%
56%
18%
≈ n218
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
136
.369
24%
36%
80%
50%
55%
15%
≈ n90
4
Chase Meidroth (R)
155
.327
19%
29%
84%
38%
63%
9%
≈ n204
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
74
.284
30%
30%
69%
40%
58%
7%
≈ n223
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
73
.251
27%
35%
67%
34%
50%
9%
≈ n85
7
Jake Rogers (R)
35
.332
29%
28%
64%
50%
53%
9%
≈ n62
8
Tristan Peters (L)
49
.272
20%
24%
77%
18%
52%
9%
▼ -6% n154
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
94
.246
17%
35%
76%
42%
49%
4%
≈ n69
Texas Rangers bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Joc Pederson (L)
359
25%
31%
29%
.355
30%
73%
31% n359
50%
11%
≈ n155
2
Corey Seager (L)
215
24%
36%
32%
.358
28%
71%
53% n215
59%
14%
≈ n176
3
Wyatt Langford (R)
235
16%
26%
33%
.318
27%
79%
39% n235
63%
9%
≈ n231
4
Brandon Nimmo (L)
378
17%
22%
19%
.369
29%
82%
33% n378
63%
9%
≈ n256
5
Ezequiel Duran (R)
351
19%
36%
23%
.298
38%
75%
40% n352
62%
9%
≈ n246
6
Evan Carter (L)
310
16%
35%
37%
.307
19%
75%
27% n310
49%
8%
≈ n137
7
Justin Foscue (R)
73
15%
22%
·
.292
34%
81%
·
54%
9%
≈ n95
8
Elias Díaz (R)
103
23%
36%
·
.232
35%
72%
34% n103
52%
10%
≈ n141
9
Cody Freeman (R)
23
6%
·
·
.280
19%
88%
·
54%
3%
≈ n62
Texas Rangers hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Joc Pederson (L)
P(1+ hit) 50% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB25%
BRK31%
OFF29%
vs RHP 0.355 xwOBA, K 22% (359 PA)
2
Corey Seager (L)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB24%
BRK36%
OFF32%
vs RHP 0.358 xwOBA, K 23% (215 PA)
3
Wyatt Langford (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB16%
BRK26%
OFF33%
vs RHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 21% (235 PA)
4
Brandon Nimmo (L)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB17%
BRK22%
OFF19%
vs RHP 0.369 xwOBA, K 22% (378 PA)
5
Ezequiel Duran (R)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB19%
BRK36%
OFF23%
vs RHP 0.298 xwOBA, K 24% (351 PA)
6
Evan Carter (L)
P(1+ hit) 49% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB16%
BRK35%
OFF37%
vs RHP 0.307 xwOBA, K 22% (310 PA)
7
Justin Foscue (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB15%
BRK22%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.292 xwOBA, K 26% (73 PA)
8
Elias Díaz (R)
P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB23%
BRK36%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.232 xwOBA, K 25% (103 PA)
9
Cody Freeman (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 3%
FB6%
BRK·
OFF·
only 23 PA vs RHP — too few to split
Matchups: CWS hitters vs MacKenzie Gore
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.664 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and in on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 14% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (15 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.653 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
7. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 49% to get a hit and 4% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Texas Rangers: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 38-for-49 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Joc Pederson (L)
25.1 ft/s
1.6% (3/231)
holds
·
2
Corey Seager (L)
25.0 ft/s
1.7% (4/275)
holds
+1 SS
3
Wyatt Langford (R)
28.5 ft/s
7.8% (26/328)
occasional
+2 LF
4
Brandon Nimmo (L)
28.1 ft/s
4.4% (17/387)
holds
-2 RF
5
Ezequiel Duran (R)
29.0 ft/s
9.6% (23/230)
occasional
+10 SS
6
Evan Carter (L)
28.9 ft/s
13.1% (27/193)
occasional
+7 CF
7
Justin Foscue (R)
27.5 ft/s
1.6% (0/51)
holds
·
8
Elias Díaz (R)
24.4 ft/s
0.9% (0/102)
holds
·
9
Cody Freeman (R)
·
4.3% (2/52)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Elias Díaz — runners went 40-for-51 against him (22% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
3.9% (14/371)
holds
-2 3B
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.2% (3/166)
holds
+0 1B
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.6% (1/110)
holds
·
4
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.2% (13/419)
holds
+4 2B
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.8% (1/95)
holds
·
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.4% (31/219)
runner
·
7
Jake Rogers (R)
26.3 ft/s
2.1% (1/82)
holds
·
8
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
3.9% (5/135)
holds
+9 CF
9
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
15.9% (29/168)
runner
-3 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.