Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

2026-08-28, 8:10 PM ET, Target Field. Luis Castillo (R) against Dean Kremer (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-27.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Dean Kremer (RHP)

965 pitches, K% 24% overall (240 BF; split withheld, short side only 98 BF)

11 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 82–90, 11 starts) · fastball +0.1 mph late (7 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%6424%
BB%588%
CSW%6828%
Whiff%7026%
Chase%4530%
xwOBA vs44.319
Hard-hit%7235%
GB%3038%
1st-pitch strike%4861%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
407/28
DET
208/05
KC
708/10
BAL
608/16
PHI
508/22
SD

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
splitter26336%14%82.6+10-11130437%28%34%44%37%.241+0.2
4-seam24431%17%92.9+18-7228011%29%29%22%31%.397+0.2
cutter1644%36%87.2+6+4238335%27%40%15%32%.245-1.6
sinker14811%21%92.1+12-14214011%28%12%9%70%.439+1.3
curveball12817%8%76.7-13+8281623%32%24%5%·.372+1.8

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

splitter
4-seam
cutter

Movement

splitter: +10 IVB, -11 HB4-seam: +18 IVB, -7 HBcutter: +6 IVB, +4 HBsinker: +12 IVB, -14 HBcurveball: -13 IVB, +8 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs righties he leans cutter (36% of pitches to that side).
  • Two strikes: expect the splitter (44% of 2-strike pitches vs 27% overall).
  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 33% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 59% in-zone on 0-0.

Luis Castillo (RHP)

2122 pitches, K% 17% vs LHB (308 BF) / 24% vs RHB (218 BF)

24 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 84–100, 21 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3220%
BB%757%
CSW%1425%
Whiff%4322%
Chase%7132%
xwOBA vs19.346
Hard-hit%2242%
GB%3239%
1st-pitch strike%9870%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
207/28
LAD
508/06
BOS
1008/12
CIN
108/17
CHC
308/22
NYM

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam90345%39%95.3+12-12227025%24%34%48%40%.349+0.8
slider53723%28%85.6+2+1223826%30%32%27%34%.321+1.2
sinker38010%28%95.5+4-18207710%24%24%12%60%.415-0.6
changeup29921%5%87.6-1-17195523%18%34%14%38%.275+1.3

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
slider
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +12 IVB, -12 HBslider: +2 IVB, +1 HBsinker: +4 IVB, -18 HBchangeup: -1 IVB, -17 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Minnesota Twins

  • Slider: top breaking whiffs are Lewis (40%), Larnach (35%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Larnach (41%), Lewis (35%).
  • Careful with Keaschall: 85% contact, 15% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Dean Kremer

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)357.36115%21%86%36%62%5%n173
2Munetaka Murakami (L)293.38432%23%61%57%58%17%n212
3Miguel Vargas (R)400.37218%22%81%41%63%14%n203
4Andrew Benintendi (L)350.31922%32%74%46%58%9%n136
5Braden Montgomery (S)193.34219%26%75%42%60%9%n218
6Colson Montgomery (L)363.29337%34%64%46%57%10%n231
7Chase Meidroth (R)383.28724%27%82%34%63%9%n192
8Tristan Peters (L)348.32318%33%79%34%56%9%▼ -7% n147
9Drew Romo (S)152.24924%37%68%27%51%7%n103

Minnesota Twins bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Luke Keaschall (R)33710%22%30%.31222%85%24% n33765%10%n160
2Brooks Lee (S)34712%23%22%.28633%82%39% n34763%12%n218
3Ryan Jeffers (R)1767%32%19%.34328%84%26% n17866%11%n169
4Kody Clemens (L)35120%32%25%.33733%76%33% n35262%10%n193
5Josh Bell (S)35617%29%25%.34431%78%41% n35664%9%▲ +6% n193
6Royce Lewis (R)29327%40%35%.29831%68%40% n29360%9%n224
7Trevor Larnach (L)34314%35%41%.33829%74%24% n34463%10%n133
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)3515%27%21%.42537%81%·60%9%·
9Walker Jenkins (?)···········

Minnesota Twins hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Luke Keaschall (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB10%
BRK22%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.312 xwOBA, K 15% (337 PA)

2

Brooks Lee (S)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB12%
BRK23%
OFF22%

vs RHP 0.286 xwOBA, K 13% (347 PA)

3

Ryan Jeffers (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB7%
BRK32%
OFF19%

vs RHP 0.343 xwOBA, K 18% (176 PA)

4

Kody Clemens (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB20%
BRK32%
OFF25%

vs RHP 0.337 xwOBA, K 23% (351 PA)

5

Josh Bell (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB17%
BRK29%
OFF25%

vs RHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 21% (356 PA)

6

Royce Lewis (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB27%
BRK40%
OFF35%

vs RHP 0.298 xwOBA, K 26% (293 PA)

7

Trevor Larnach (L)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB14%
BRK35%
OFF41%

vs RHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 17% (343 PA)

8

Kaelen Culpepper (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB15%
BRK27%
OFF21%

only 35 PA vs RHP — too few to split

9

Walker Jenkins (?)

FB·
BRK·
OFF·

only 0 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Dean Kremer

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.450 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (28 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.602 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.502 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and away on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 28% of the time there, against 24% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (23 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.409 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.482 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.394 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (78 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.510 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.349 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.415 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Minnesota Twins: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 33-for-45 against him (27% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Luke Keaschall (R)28.7 ft/s9.3% (29/304)occasional-7 2B
2Brooks Lee (S)26.4 ft/s3.5% (11/324)holds-8 SS
3Ryan Jeffers (R)26.5 ft/s1.4% (3/269)holds·
4Kody Clemens (L)27.7 ft/s5.0% (12/242)holds+2 1B
5Josh Bell (S)26.1 ft/s1.4% (4/339)holds·
6Royce Lewis (R)27.8 ft/s9.9% (24/232)occasional-5 3B
7Trevor Larnach (L)26.8 ft/s2.5% (7/308)holds-4 LF
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)·2.2% (0/29)holds·
9Walker Jenkins (?)··no read·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Ryan Jeffers — runners went 82-for-91 against him (10% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.3% (16/185)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.2% (3/168)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.1% (15/375)holds-2 3B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/261)holds·
5Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.8% (1/96)holds·
6Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/217)holds+6 SS
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (13/422)holds+4 2B
8Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s3.9% (5/136)holds+9 CF
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s3.1% (1/48)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2408/2508/26 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)65··2 heavy312p/12g22%21%.3104-seam 91 (68%) · changeup 80 (22%)
Erick Fedde (R)···3 heavy260p/6g16%18%.336sweeper 82 (37%) · sinker 94 (33%)
Grant Taylor (R)·2·1245p/12g32%26%.2474-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 83 (26%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)36··2 heavy196p/5g13%20%.366slider 88 (40%) · 4-seam 94 (39%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·24·1191p/10g27%24%.279sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 100 (30%)
Hagen Smith (L)·43·1 heavy176p/7g35%32%.2634-seam 94 (53%) · slider 83 (24%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)21··2166p/10g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Sean Newcomb (L)··39today heavy162p/7g23%22%.3074-seam 95 (40%) · slurve 83 (32%)
Minnesota Twins bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2408/2508/26 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Kody Funderburk (L)··18today221p/14g19%21%.313cutter 93 (39%) · sinker 94 (31%)
Andrew Morris (R)1·16today196p/13g21%19%.2824-seam 98 (51%) · cutter 93 (26%)
Travis Adams (R)···3189p/9g26%25%.325slider 87 (29%) · 4-seam 95 (23%)
Yoendrys Gómez (R)20··2187p/11g21%23%.3544-seam 97 (56%) · sweeper 86 (20%)
Taylor Rogers (L)···3170p/10g19%17%.328sweeper 78 (49%) · sinker 93 (34%)
Tommy Nance (R)16··2162p/10g26%23%.315slider 90 (53%) · sinker 94 (26%)
Jeff Hoffman (R)··6today155p/9g34%33%.308slider 86 (52%) · 4-seam 96 (36%)
A.J. Minter (L)·23·1141p/12g21%21%.287cutter 90 (60%) · 4-seam 94 (22%)