CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-08-30 20:36 UTC

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

2026-08-30, 2:10 PM ET, Target Field. Jordan Hicks (R) against Zebby Matthews (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-29.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Zebby Matthews (RHP)

1675 pitches, K% 22% vs LHB (242 BF) / 18% vs RHB (196 BF)

18 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 87–100, 18 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (14 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3320%
BB%687%
CSW%4026%
Whiff%3121%
Chase%2628%
xwOBA vs35.328
Hard-hit%2542%
GB%6344%
1st-pitch strike%8867%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
1007/31
SEA
408/07
MIL
408/12
BAL
408/18
ATL
708/24
ATH

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam61038%35%95.2+16-9229611%25%22%34%51%.374-0.0
slider37516%30%87.2+3+3238234%29%40%34%35%.261-1.5
changeup21321%3%86.7+4-15154017%18%24%10%29%.326+2.6
curveball20412%12%80.0-9+8236734%31%27%15%23%.203+0.9
cutter18612%11%90.6+9+0248913%26%24%5%48%.428+1.6
sinker871%11%95.2+11-16231819%33%23%2%·.483+0.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
slider
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +16 IVB, -9 HBslider: +3 IVB, +3 HBchangeup: +4 IVB, -15 HBcurveball: -9 IVB, +8 HBcutter: +9 IVB, +0 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -16 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 38% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 64% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Two strikes: expect the slider (34% of 2-strike pitches vs 22% overall).
  • Lay off the slider below the zone: 34% whiffs, only 42% of them are strikes.

Jordan Hicks (RHP)

709 pitches, K% 27% overall (179 BF; split withheld, short side only 72 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (43 appearances, median 4 batters). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

43 apps · median 4 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 1) · exit pitch count withheld, only 1 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%8227%
BB%1612%
CSW%7729%
Whiff%6024%
Chase%5831%
xwOBA vs86.279
Hard-hit%8034%
GB%7547%
1st-pitch strike%9669%
recent starts, K (n=1) last start 08/01, 29 days ago
108/01
TB

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sinker34249%49%99.0+9-16196110%29%28%32%51%.317+0.6
sweeper21819%39%86.7-0+7225048%33%27%32%19%.272+0.7
4-seam11224%11%99.4+14-11225424%24%41%29%34%.140-4.5
splitter258%0%90.8+0-10109450%32%42%7%·.203·

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
sinker
sweeper
4-seam

Movement

sinker: +9 IVB, -16 HBsweeper: -0 IVB, +7 HB4-seam: +14 IVB, -11 HBsplitter: +0 IVB, -10 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Minnesota Twins

  • Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Lewis (41%), Kreidler (37%).
  • Splitter: top offspeed whiffs are Lewis (36%), Keaschall (29%).
  • Careful with Keaschall: 85% contact, 14% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Zebby Matthews

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)364.35815%21%87%35%65%3%≈ n178
2Munetaka Murakami (L)299.38333%23%61%57%59%13%≈ n213
3Miguel Vargas (R)407.37318%22%81%42%68%11%≈ n205
4Andrew Benintendi (L)356.32322%32%74%46%58%7%≈ n142
5Braden Montgomery (S)199.34218%26%76%41%63%6%≈ n218
6Colson Montgomery (L)370.29237%33%64%45%57%9%≈ n233
7Tristan Peters (L)355.32218%33%79%34%60%7%≈ n138
8Brenton Doyle (R)101.23634%31%75%31%56%8%≈ n100
9Drew Romo (S)155.25025%37%69%27%54%6%≈ n100

Minnesota Twins bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Luke Keaschall (R)34410%22%29%.31223%85%24% n34463%7%≈ n166
2Brooks Lee (S)35412%23%22%.28633%82%40% n35464%8%≈ n221
3Kody Clemens (L)35620%32%25%.34833%76%33% n35760%8%≈ n196
4Ryan Jeffers (R)1807%31%19%.33528%84%26% n18265%9%≈ n171
5Josh Bell (S)36117%29%25%.34431%78%41% n36162%8%▲ +6% n190
6Ryan Kreidler (R)12626%37%·.29132%69%43% n126··≈ n86
7Royce Lewis (R)29827%41%36%.29732%68%40% n29857%6%≈ n237
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)3914%26%23%.40238%81%·57%6%·
9Walker Jenkins (L)4··········

Minnesota Twins hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Luke Keaschall (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB10%
BRK22%
OFF29%

vs RHP 0.312 xwOBA, K 14% (344 PA)

2

Brooks Lee (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB12%
BRK23%
OFF22%

vs RHP 0.286 xwOBA, K 13% (354 PA)

3

Kody Clemens (L)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB20%
BRK32%
OFF25%

vs RHP 0.348 xwOBA, K 22% (356 PA)

4

Ryan Jeffers (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB7%
BRK31%
OFF19%

vs RHP 0.335 xwOBA, K 19% (180 PA)

5

Josh Bell (S)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB17%
BRK29%
OFF25%

vs RHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 21% (361 PA)

6

Ryan Kreidler (R)

FB26%
BRK37%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.291 xwOBA, K 26% (126 PA)

7

Royce Lewis (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB27%
BRK41%
OFF36%

vs RHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 27% (298 PA)

8

Kaelen Culpepper (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB14%
BRK26%
OFF23%

only 39 PA vs RHP — too few to split

9

Walker Jenkins (L)

FB·
BRK·
OFF·

only 4 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Zebby Matthews

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.403 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (39 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 3% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 17% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (29 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.585 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (29 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.502 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 25% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.409 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.473 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (25 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 17% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (79 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.510 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (30 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.295 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Drew Romo

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Minnesota Twins: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 34-for-46 against him (26% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Luke Keaschall (R)28.7 ft/s9.1% (29/308)occasional-7 2B
2Brooks Lee (S)26.4 ft/s3.5% (11/325)holds-8 SS
3Kody Clemens (L)27.7 ft/s4.9% (12/245)holds+2 1B
4Ryan Jeffers (R)26.5 ft/s1.4% (3/269)holds·
5Josh Bell (S)26.1 ft/s1.4% (4/342)holds·
6Ryan Kreidler (R)27.9 ft/s5.8% (5/84)holds+0 SS
7Royce Lewis (R)27.8 ft/s10.2% (25/235)occasional-5 3B
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)·2.1% (0/33)holds·
9Walker Jenkins (L)··no read·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 21 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Ryan Jeffers — runners went 83-for-92 against him (10% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.7% (17/187)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.1% (3/175)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.0% (15/379)holds-2 3B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/265)holds·
5Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.8% (1/100)holds·
6Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/220)holds+6 SS
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s3.8% (5/139)holds+9 CF
8Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s13.4% (31/219)runner·
9Drew Romo (S)26.1 ft/s3.0% (1/49)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2608/2808/29 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)···4 heavy298p/11g22%21%.3104-seam 91 (68%) · changeup 80 (21%)
Erick Fedde (R)···5 heavy260p/6g16%18%.334sweeper 82 (37%) · sinker 94 (33%)
Grant Taylor (R)·27·1246p/12g33%26%.2524-seam 98 (39%) · curveball 83 (25%)
Hagen Smith (L)·33·1209p/8g35%35%.2804-seam 94 (50%) · slider 83 (30%)
Sean Newcomb (L)39·40today heavy202p/8g23%21%.3054-seam 95 (39%) · slurve 83 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···4166p/10g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···4 heavy158p/4g13%20%.366slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (35%)
Bryan Hudson (L)·169today B2B137p/11g22%22%.2844-seam 92 (71%) · sweeper 79 (29%)
Minnesota Twins bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2608/2808/29 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Andrew Morris (R)16·27today223p/14g21%19%.2794-seam 98 (51%) · cutter 93 (26%)
Kody Funderburk (L)1819·1213p/14g19%22%.313cutter 93 (40%) · sinker 94 (30%)
Yoendrys Gómez (R)··25today212p/12g21%23%.3544-seam 97 (57%) · sweeper 86 (21%)
Taylor Rogers (L)·38·1 heavy208p/11g19%17%.327sweeper 78 (50%) · sinker 93 (33%)
Travis Adams (R)·26·1204p/9g26%24%.320slider 87 (28%) · 4-seam 95 (24%)
Tommy Nance (R)···4162p/10g26%23%.315slider 90 (53%) · sinker 94 (26%)
A.J. Minter (L)··20today161p/13g21%21%.290cutter 90 (61%) · 4-seam 94 (22%)
Jeff Hoffman (R)6··2155p/9g34%33%.308slider 86 (52%) · 4-seam 96 (36%)