CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-01 00:08 UTC

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

2026-08-31, 8:10 PM ET, Daikin Park. Anthony Kay (L) against Peter Lambert (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-08-30.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Peter Lambert (RHP)

2167 pitches, K% 23% vs LHB (302 BF) / 23% vs RHB (242 BF)

23 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 93 pitches (IQR 90–98, 23 starts) · fastball -0.3 mph late (20 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5623%
BB%399%
CSW%3026%
Whiff%4823%
Chase%5130%
xwOBA vs75.293
Hard-hit%6536%
GB%3539%
1st-pitch strike%6463%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
808/02
TEX
308/08
SD
608/14
SEA
308/20
LAA
508/26
NYY

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam68233%30%93.9+18-8230522%28%31%33%40%.329+0.1
changeup51632%13%87.0+8-13156333%26%37%29%28%.244-0.1
slider25910%14%85.6+2+3263725%24%23%13%45%.273-0.4
cutter22314%6%91.6+12+1233714%26%21%10%58%.338-0.6
sinker2081%21%93.4+12-1521745%20%35%3%·.283-0.3
sweeper1683%14%82.7-2+16273525%24%31%9%31%.282-0.1
slurve1007%2%80.1-12+15261912%30%14%3%·.303-1.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
changeup
slider

Movement

4-seam: +18 IVB, -8 HBchangeup: +8 IVB, -13 HBslider: +2 IVB, +3 HBcutter: +12 IVB, +1 HBsinker: +12 IVB, -15 HBsweeper: -2 IVB, +16 HBslurve: -12 IVB, +15 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs righties he leans sinker (21% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the changeup below the zone: 33% whiffs, only 38% of them are strikes.

Anthony Kay (LHP)

2345 pitches, K% 28% vs LHB (161 BF) / 15% vs RHB (429 BF)

27 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 86–94, 25 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2318%
BB%578%
CSW%2626%
Whiff%4322%
Chase%7432%
xwOBA vs23.342
Hard-hit%3840%
GB%6645%
1st-pitch strike%3159%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
308/02
TB
408/08
CLE
408/15
DET
608/20
ATL
408/25
TEX

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam53317%25%95.8+15+7234817%25%31%27%43%.356-0.0
sweeper52531%19%82.8+0-13243636%34%24%17%31%.322+0.8
sinker40535%11%95.2+5+16225816%26%38%14%58%.355-0.3
cutter40311%20%91.7+7-1238818%23%31%10%30%.428-0.1
changeup3260%19%86.1+0+14173626%18%37%16%18%.269+1.1
slider1537%7%86.3-4-4256228%21%43%16%24%.288+1.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sweeper
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsweeper: +0 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -1 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Houston Astros

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Peña (42%), Walker (36%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Velázquez (53%), Smith (50%).
  • Careful with Paredes: 88% contact, 16% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Peter Lambert

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)368.35714%21%87%35%63%5%≈ n182
2Munetaka Murakami (L)303.37833%23%61%56%59%16%≈ n214
3Miguel Vargas (R)411.37118%21%81%42%64%14%≈ n202
4Andrew Benintendi (L)360.32322%32%74%46%58%9%≈ n144
5Braden Montgomery (S)203.34318%26%76%42%60%9%≈ n217
6Colson Montgomery (L)374.29037%33%64%45%54%10%≈ n236
7Chase Meidroth (R)390.28624%27%82%33%67%9%≈ n188
8Tristan Peters (L)358.32418%33%79%34%60%11%≈ n141
9Jake Rogers (R)116.25829%23%78%33%52%9%≈ n75

Houston Astros bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Jeremy Peña (R)8118%42%46%.34238%69%·64%13%▼ -7% n217
2Yordan Alvarez (L)15511%28%·.44234%81%38% n15568%14%≈ n184
3Isaac Paredes (R)1296%16%23%.32934%88%22% n12969%6%≈ n209
4Christian Walker (R)12120%36%32%.32630%73%32% n12261%9%≈ n194
5Daulton Varsho (L)11512%23%·.28036%84%29% n11564%10%≈ n216
6Cam Smith (R)12415%29%50%.32330%75%31% n12456%11%≈ n171
7Nelson Velázquez (R)6933%26%53%.34434%64%·55%10%≈ n28
8Nick Allen (R)365%··.32523%84%·56%7%≈ n60
9Christian Vázquez (R)5611%21%27%.24638%85%·51%7%≈ n62

Houston Astros hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Jeremy Peña (R)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB18%
BRK42%
OFF46%

vs LHP 0.342 xwOBA, K 25% (81 PA)

2

Yordan Alvarez (L)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB11%
BRK28%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.442 xwOBA, K 16% (155 PA)

3

Isaac Paredes (R)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB6%
BRK16%
OFF23%

vs LHP 0.329 xwOBA, K 16% (129 PA)

4

Christian Walker (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB20%
BRK36%
OFF32%

vs LHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 19% (121 PA)

5

Daulton Varsho (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB12%
BRK23%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 19% (115 PA)

6

Cam Smith (R)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB15%
BRK29%
OFF50%

vs LHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 23% (124 PA)

7

Nelson Velázquez (R)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB33%
BRK26%
OFF53%

vs LHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 30% (69 PA)

8

Nick Allen (R)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB5%
BRK·
OFF·

only 36 PA vs LHP — too few to split

9

Christian Vázquez (R)

P(1+ hit) 51% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB11%
BRK21%
OFF27%

vs LHP 0.246 xwOBA, K 18% (56 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Peter Lambert

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (30 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.568 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.392 league average in that spot. (30 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and away on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 16% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (29 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.502 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.392 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.400 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.473 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.392 league average in that spot. (25 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (81 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.510 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker down and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 8% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (16 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (30 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.420 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.308 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Jake Rogers

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Houston Astros: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 39-for-51 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Jeremy Peña (R)29.2 ft/s4.8% (16/334)holds-3 SS
2Yordan Alvarez (L)24.9 ft/s1.2% (3/337)holds·
3Isaac Paredes (R)25.0 ft/s0.5% (1/385)holds+0 3B
4Christian Walker (R)25.9 ft/s0.8% (2/362)holds+2 1B
5Daulton Varsho (L)27.3 ft/s6.0% (12/199)holds+4 CF
6Cam Smith (R)29.2 ft/s6.3% (18/282)holds+5 RF
7Nelson Velázquez (R)27.6 ft/s2.5% (0/25)holds·
8Nick Allen (R)26.9 ft/s7.2% (14/190)occasional+2 SS
9Christian Vázquez (R)23.3 ft/s1.9% (2/143)holds·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Christian Vázquez — runners went 78-for-99 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.6% (17/189)occasional-5 LF
2Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.1% (3/175)holds+0 1B
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.0% (15/381)holds-2 3B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/265)holds·
5Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.8% (1/101)holds·
6Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/220)holds+6 SS
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (13/423)holds+4 2B
8Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s3.8% (5/141)holds+9 CF
9Jake Rogers (R)26.3 ft/s2.0% (1/85)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2808/2908/30 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)···5 heavy298p/11g22%21%.3104-seam 91 (68%) · changeup 80 (21%)
Erick Fedde (R)···6 heavy260p/6g16%18%.334sweeper 82 (37%) · sinker 94 (33%)
Grant Taylor (R)27··2246p/12g33%26%.2524-seam 98 (39%) · curveball 83 (25%)
Hagen Smith (L)33··2209p/8g35%35%.2804-seam 94 (50%) · slider 83 (30%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·40·1 heavy177p/7g23%21%.3054-seam 95 (38%) · slurve 83 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···5166p/10g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···5 heavy158p/4g13%20%.366slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (35%)
Jordan Hicks (R)···4150p/8g27%24%.283sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (28%)
Houston Astros bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/2808/2908/30 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
AJ Blubaugh (R)··31today243p/12g25%26%.3024-seam 96 (50%) · sweeper 85 (26%)
Bryan Abreu (R)17·19today238p/13g29%32%.3184-seam 96 (47%) · slider 87 (38%)
Enyel De Los Santos (R)·20·1226p/12g22%26%.2884-seam 95 (39%) · changeup 85 (32%)
Steven Okert (L)··6today206p/14g26%28%.278slider 80 (64%) · 4-seam 90 (30%)
Bennett Sousa (L)···4192p/13g23%30%.306slider 86 (73%) · 4-seam 93 (17%)
Josh Hader (L)18·13today187p/13g36%33%.217sinker 95 (64%) · slider 84 (36%)
Bryan King (L)···9 heavy142p/7g18%16%.3234-seam 92 (45%) · sinker 92 (32%)
Kai-Wei Teng (R)·19·152p/3g22%25%.337sweeper 84 (54%) · sinker 94 (19%)