CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-02 23:09 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
2026-09-02, 8:10 PM ET, Daikin Park.
Davis Martin (R) against
Hayden Wesneski (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-01.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 66%, lowest Drew Romo 56% (11 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Pen posture Us: 3 threw 35+ last time. Houston Astros: 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
3Their bats highest board probability Yordan Alvarez 13%. see the grid
Run environment board total 9.14, P(over 8.5) 52%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Their starterHayden Wesneski, board E[K] 5.0 — 6 apps, median 22 BF.
Air 83°F · 9 mph blowing out to center · air 3.1% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Retractable roof — we do not know whether it is open, so treat this as indicative only. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Hayden Wesneski (RHP)
504 pitches, K% 21% overall (133 BF; split withheld, short side only 59 BF)
6 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 80–89, 6 starts) · fastball -0.4 mph late (2 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%4121%
BB%439%
CSW%3026%
Whiff%6325%
Chase%9536%
xwOBA vs59.309
Hard-hit%3440%
GB%4040%
1st-pitch strike%7164%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
408/04 TOR
408/10 SF
608/15 SEA
408/21 ATH
608/27 NYY
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sweeper
152
29%
31%
80.9
-4
+20
2792
43%
36%
38%
39%
20%
.236
-1.6
4-seam
124
30%
18%
93.7
+14
-5
2225
11%
19%
29%
30%
43%
.361
+0.3
sinker
95
9%
32%
92.8
+9
-15
2012
11%
15%
41%
5%
·
.294
-0.0
cutter
68
12%
16%
89.2
+5
+4
2436
25%
25%
32%
8%
·
.397
+2.1
changeup
62
19%
4%
86.7
+5
-14
1654
44%
34%
38%
18%
25%
.178
-3.4
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
sweeper4-seamsinker
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 22% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 55% in-zone on 0-0.
Two strikes: expect the sweeper (39% of 2-strike pitches vs 30% overall).
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 44% whiffs, only 37% of them are strikes.
Davis Martin (RHP)
2035 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (309 BF) / 23% vs RHB (221 BF)
24 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 84–93, 24 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%4021%
BB%677%
CSW%3426%
Whiff%3922%
Chase%6932%
xwOBA vs29.334
Hard-hit%1344%
GB%5042%
1st-pitch strike%1758%
published K forecast: E[K] 3.5
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 08/13, 20 days ago
307/24 HOU
607/29 NYY
108/04 BOS
108/09 CLE
308/13 CIN
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
542
30%
23%
93.9
+14
-5
2411
20%
25%
27%
30%
41%
.314
+0.2
sinker
371
14%
25%
92.8
+8
-14
2398
7%
22%
24%
12%
61%
.355
-1.1
curveball
285
17%
10%
81.7
-8
+14
2877
39%
31%
29%
15%
34%
.279
+0.4
changeup
278
18%
8%
90.2
+1
-13
2122
13%
20%
37%
15%
40%
.343
-1.5
slider
271
5%
26%
87.1
+1
+5
2604
35%
30%
48%
19%
27%
.298
+1.7
cutter
256
15%
9%
89.7
+7
+2
2575
24%
31%
28%
9%
57%
.414
-0.1
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamsinkercurveball
Movement
Attack plan vs Houston Astros
Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Trammell (50%), Peña (44%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Smith (44%), Peña (40%).
Careful with Paredes: 85% contact, 12% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Hayden Wesneski
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
377
.358
15%
21%
87%
35%
65%
4%
≈ n180
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
312
.376
33%
23%
60%
56%
60%
16%
≈ n217
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
420
.374
18%
21%
81%
41%
66%
14%
≈ n207
4
Andrew Benintendi (L)
368
.320
22%
33%
75%
46%
61%
10%
≈ n150
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
207
.343
17%
26%
76%
41%
62%
8%
≈ n216
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
383
.295
37%
33%
64%
45%
61%
13%
≈ n240
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
398
.288
23%
27%
82%
33%
65%
9%
≈ n188
8
Tristan Peters (L)
365
.323
18%
33%
79%
34%
61%
12%
≈ n145
9
Drew Romo (S)
162
.262
23%
36%
69%
28%
56%
6%
≈ n103
Houston Astros bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
301
13%
44%
40%
.326
38%
72%
46% n302
63%
11%
▼ -6% n216
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
443
14%
24%
16%
.483
27%
84%
30% n443
66%
13%
≈ n185
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
431
9%
23%
21%
.319
26%
85%
16% n431
67%
8%
≈ n216
4
Jose Altuve (R)
365
18%
24%
33%
.273
36%
78%
41% n365
64%
9%
≈ n176
5
Daulton Varsho (L)
349
17%
21%
25%
.292
36%
80%
35% n349
63%
11%
≈ n203
6
Taylor Trammell (L)
198
29%
50%
38%
.318
28%
64%
34% n198
55%
10%
≈ n123
7
Cam Smith (R)
361
17%
43%
44%
.321
30%
73%
35% n362
59%
11%
≈ n177
8
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
106
17%
18%
33%
.286
22%
81%
16% n107
56%
8%
≈ n75
9
Christian Vázquez (R)
191
13%
31%
11%
.239
35%
82%
26% n191
55%
8%
≈ n72
Houston Astros hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB13%
BRK44%
OFF40%
vs RHP 0.326 xwOBA, K 21% (301 PA)
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB14%
BRK24%
OFF16%
vs RHP 0.483 xwOBA, K 18% (443 PA)
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB9%
BRK23%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 12% (431 PA)
4
Jose Altuve (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB18%
BRK24%
OFF33%
vs RHP 0.273 xwOBA, K 20% (365 PA)
5
Daulton Varsho (L)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB17%
BRK21%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.292 xwOBA, K 20% (349 PA)
6
Taylor Trammell (L)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB29%
BRK50%
OFF38%
vs RHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 32% (198 PA)
7
Cam Smith (R)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB17%
BRK43%
OFF44%
vs RHP 0.321 xwOBA, K 25% (361 PA)
8
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB17%
BRK18%
OFF33%
vs RHP 0.286 xwOBA, K 25% (106 PA)
9
Christian Vázquez (R)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB13%
BRK31%
OFF11%
vs RHP 0.239 xwOBA, K 20% (191 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Hayden Wesneski
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.461 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 4% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (31 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.556 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.490 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.443 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.465 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (87 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Tristan Peters
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.420 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Houston Astros: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 36-for-49 against him (27% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Jeremy Peña (R)
29.2 ft/s
4.8% (16/337)
holds
-3 SS
2
Yordan Alvarez (L)
24.9 ft/s
1.1% (3/346)
holds
·
3
Isaac Paredes (R)
25.0 ft/s
0.5% (1/386)
holds
+0 3B
4
Jose Altuve (R)
27.5 ft/s
3.4% (13/393)
holds
-5 2B
5
Daulton Varsho (L)
27.3 ft/s
6.0% (12/199)
holds
+4 CF
6
Taylor Trammell (L)
27.0 ft/s
7.0% (8/109)
occasional
·
7
Cam Smith (R)
29.2 ft/s
6.3% (18/282)
holds
+5 RF
8
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)
25.6 ft/s
1.5% (1/122)
holds
·
9
Christian Vázquez (R)
23.3 ft/s
1.9% (2/146)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Christian Vázquez — runners went 78-for-99 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
8.3% (17/198)
occasional
-5 LF
2
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
2.1% (3/181)
holds
+0 1B
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
3.9% (15/389)
holds
-2 3B
4
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/266)
holds
·
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.8% (1/101)
holds
·
6
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.9% (1/226)
holds
+6 SS
7
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.1% (13/428)
holds
+4 2B
8
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
3.7% (5/144)
holds
+9 CF
9
Drew Romo (S)
26.1 ft/s
2.9% (1/54)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.