CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-04 23:07 UTC

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-04, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Erick Fedde (R) against Zebby Matthews (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-03.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Zebby Matthews (RHP)

1778 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (265 BF) / 19% vs RHB (203 BF)

19 apps · median 25 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 93 pitches (IQR 88–100, 19 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3320%
BB%747%
CSW%3226%
Whiff%2620%
Chase%2628%
xwOBA vs37.326
Hard-hit%2542%
GB%6344%
1st-pitch strike%8566%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.6
recent starts, K (n=5)
408/07
MIL
408/12
BAL
408/18
ATL
708/24
ATH
508/30
CWS

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam64637%35%95.2+16-9229411%26%22%34%51%.375-0.3
slider38916%30%87.2+3+3238034%28%39%34%35%.256-1.7
changeup23021%2%86.8+4-15153417%17%24%10%31%.328+2.5
curveball21212%12%79.9-9+8236433%31%27%14%23%.200+0.8
cutter21213%11%90.7+9+0248713%25%25%6%55%.397+0.8
sinker891%10%95.2+11-16231718%33%22%2%·.505+0.8

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
slider
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +16 IVB, -9 HBslider: +3 IVB, +3 HBchangeup: +4 IVB, -15 HBcurveball: -9 IVB, +8 HBcutter: +9 IVB, +0 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -16 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 38% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 65% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Vs lefties he leans changeup (21% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the slider below the zone: 34% whiffs, only 42% of them are strikes.

Erick Fedde (RHP)

2105 pitches, K% 16% vs LHB (290 BF) / 17% vs RHB (244 BF)

29 apps · median 19 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 80 pitches (IQR 75–90, 13 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%1216%
BB%568%
CSW%2125%
Whiff%1018%
Chase%324%
xwOBA vs28.334
Hard-hit%3939%
GB%3439%
1st-pitch strike%8766%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.1
recent starts, K (n=5)
306/30
BAL
607/20
TEX
207/26
HOU
607/31
TB
408/29
MIN

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sweeper77231%44%82.0+1+16253121%30%31%42%38%.292-1.0
sinker64126%37%93.9+8-9206512%27%17%28%42%.356+0.5
cutter39522%15%91.1+7+2215016%23%24%14%39%.384+1.3
changeup26020%2%88.8+3-10185024%15%25%13%20%.323+2.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
sweeper
sinker
cutter

Movement

sweeper: +1 IVB, +16 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -9 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +2 HBchangeup: +3 IVB, -10 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Minnesota Twins

  • Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Lewis (40%), Larnach (35%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Larnach (40%), Lewis (39%).
  • Careful with Keaschall: 85% contact, 14% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Zebby Matthews

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)384.35814%21%87%36%64%5%≈ n181
2Miguel Vargas (R)428.37118%21%82%41%66%12%≈ n210
3Munetaka Murakami (L)320.37033%23%60%55%59%16%≈ n223
4Andrew Benintendi (L)375.31922%32%75%46%60%10%≈ n152
5Colson Montgomery (L)390.29436%33%64%44%59%12%≈ n238
6Braden Montgomery (S)214.34917%26%76%42%61%9%≈ n227
7Tristan Peters (L)370.32618%33%79%35%60%11%≈ n148
8Chase Meidroth (R)405.28723%28%82%32%67%9%≈ n190
9Kyle Teel (L)53.32940%30%69%56%54%10%·

Minnesota Twins bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Luke Keaschall (R)36110%21%28%.32122%85%25% n36166%11%≈ n171
2Brooks Lee (S)37012%23%22%.28533%83%40% n37067%11%≈ n231
3Kody Clemens (L)37119%31%24%.35134%77%33% n37266%14%≈ n194
4Ryan Jeffers (R)1967%31%17%.34928%84%27% n19868%13%≈ n169
5Josh Bell (S)37716%29%24%.34030%79%40% n37766%12%▲ +5% n206
6Trevor Larnach (L)36113%35%40%.33829%75%23% n36259%10%≈ n128
7Royce Lewis (R)31526%40%39%.30132%68%40% n31561%10%≈ n246
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)5513%30%30%.35939%77%·64%9%·
9Walker Jenkins (L)19··20%.25532%77%····

Minnesota Twins hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Luke Keaschall (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB10%
BRK21%
OFF28%

vs RHP 0.321 xwOBA, K 14% (361 PA)

2

Brooks Lee (S)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB12%
BRK23%
OFF22%

vs RHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 13% (370 PA)

3

Kody Clemens (L)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB19%
BRK31%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.351 xwOBA, K 23% (371 PA)

4

Ryan Jeffers (R)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB7%
BRK31%
OFF17%

vs RHP 0.349 xwOBA, K 18% (196 PA)

5

Josh Bell (S)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB16%
BRK29%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.340 xwOBA, K 21% (377 PA)

6

Trevor Larnach (L)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB13%
BRK35%
OFF40%

vs RHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 17% (361 PA)

7

Royce Lewis (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB26%
BRK40%
OFF39%

vs RHP 0.301 xwOBA, K 26% (315 PA)

8

Kaelen Culpepper (R)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB13%
BRK30%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.359 xwOBA, K 18% (55 PA)

9

Walker Jenkins (L)

FB·
BRK·
OFF20%

only 19 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Zebby Matthews

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3 for 7 lifetime. At 7 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (32 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.490 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (33 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 7 lifetime. At 7 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (33 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.406 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 7 lifetime. At 7 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.443 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (88 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.357 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.465 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (30 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.420 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.409 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.332 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Kyle Teel

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Minnesota Twins: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 42-for-52 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Luke Keaschall (R)28.7 ft/s9.1% (30/322)occasional-7 2B
2Brooks Lee (S)26.4 ft/s3.7% (12/335)holds-8 SS
3Kody Clemens (L)27.7 ft/s4.8% (12/252)holds+2 1B
4Ryan Jeffers (R)26.5 ft/s1.4% (3/272)holds·
5Josh Bell (S)26.1 ft/s1.7% (5/350)holds·
6Trevor Larnach (L)26.8 ft/s2.4% (7/313)holds-4 LF
7Royce Lewis (R)27.8 ft/s9.9% (25/241)occasional-5 3B
8Kaelen Culpepper (R)·2.0% (0/37)holds·
9Walker Jenkins (L)··no read·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Ryan Jeffers — runners went 85-for-94 against him (10% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.1% (17/201)occasional-5 LF
2Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.2% (16/391)holds-2 3B
3Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/182)holds+0 1B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/271)holds·
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/228)holds+6 SS
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.7% (1/105)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.3% (6/146)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.1% (13/430)holds+4 2B
9Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.8% (2/151)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0109/0209/03 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)··8today313p/11g22%21%.3074-seam 91 (65%) · changeup 80 (21%)
Grant Taylor (R)14··2238p/12g33%26%.2504-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 84 (24%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·41·1 heavy218p/8g23%21%.3104-seam 95 (38%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Hagen Smith (L)···6209p/8g35%35%.2804-seam 94 (50%) · slider 83 (30%)
Jordan Hicks (R)25··2175p/9g27%25%.282sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···9166p/10g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Bryan Hudson (L)17··2143p/11g22%22%.2804-seam 92 (72%) · sweeper 79 (28%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)··22today137p/4g12%20%.371slider 88 (46%) · 4-seam 93 (29%)
Minnesota Twins bullpen 8 arms
Reliever08/3109/0109/02 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Kody Funderburk (L)··29today220p/13g20%22%.312cutter 93 (39%) · sinker 94 (32%)
Travis Adams (R)·93today B2B205p/10g26%25%.318slider 87 (31%) · 4-seam 94 (22%)
Tommy Nance (R)26·34today195p/10g25%24%.320slider 90 (56%) · sinker 94 (23%)
Andrew Morris (R)···4189p/11g21%19%.2824-seam 98 (53%) · cutter 93 (26%)
Jeff Hoffman (R)··12today180p/11g34%34%.302slider 86 (51%) · 4-seam 96 (37%)
Taylor Rogers (L)··11today174p/10g19%17%.326sweeper 77 (50%) · sinker 92 (31%)
Yoendrys Gómez (R)··15today162p/10g21%23%.3534-seam 97 (58%) · sweeper 86 (19%)
A.J. Minter (L)··17today158p/12g21%21%.291cutter 90 (60%) · 4-seam 94 (21%)