CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-05 22:08 UTC

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-05, 7:10 PM ET, Rate Field. Anthony Kay (L) against Taj Bradley (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-04.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Taj Bradley (RHP)

2622 pitches, K% 29% vs LHB (384 BF) / 25% vs RHB (270 BF)

27 apps · median 25 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 99 pitches (IQR 92–102, 27 starts) · fastball +0.1 mph late (26 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%8227%
BB%3210%
CSW%5327%
Whiff%5524%
Chase%3429%
xwOBA vs61.306
Hard-hit%945%
GB%1335%
1st-pitch strike%5162%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.4
recent starts, K (n=5)
708/08
MIL
308/13
PHI
708/19
ATL
1108/25
ATH
908/31
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam122147%45%97.1+18-6231112%25%26%38%54%.380-0.5
cutter63217%34%89.7+4+5219534%32%37%26%37%.231-1.0
splitter51426%11%91.5+6-11174834%26%27%21%35%.228-0.1
curveball2359%9%82.6-13+4241032%30%24%15%27%.252+2.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
cutter
splitter

Movement

4-seam: +18 IVB, -6 HBcutter: +4 IVB, +5 HBsplitter: +6 IVB, -11 HBcurveball: -13 IVB, +4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 49% of his first pitches, only 12% whiffs, 54% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Vs righties he leans cutter (34% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the curveball below the zone: 32% whiffs, only 34% of them are strikes.

Anthony Kay (LHP)

2434 pitches, K% 28% vs LHB (167 BF) / 15% vs RHB (446 BF)

28 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 86–94, 26 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2418%
BB%578%
CSW%3126%
Whiff%4522%
Chase%7332%
xwOBA vs24.341
Hard-hit%4239%
GB%6444%
1st-pitch strike%3560%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
408/08
CLE
408/15
DET
608/20
ATL
408/25
TEX
508/31
HOU

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam55417%25%95.8+15+7234818%25%31%26%43%.359-0.0
sweeper54231%19%82.8+0-13243735%34%24%16%32%.325+0.7
sinker42335%11%95.2+5+16226016%27%37%14%58%.349-0.4
cutter41411%19%91.7+7-1239018%23%31%10%31%.431+0.2
changeup3420%19%86.1+0+14174228%19%37%17%17%.260+0.9
slider1596%7%86.3-4-4256327%20%44%17%26%.285+1.7

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sweeper
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsweeper: +0 IVB, -13 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -1 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Minnesota Twins

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Culpepper (45%), Lewis (40%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Culpepper (50%), Lewis (33%).
  • Careful with Jeffers: 89% contact, 13% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Taj Bradley

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)388.35614%21%87%35%61%4%≈ n185
2Miguel Vargas (R)432.37018%21%82%41%63%11%≈ n212
3Munetaka Murakami (L)323.36733%23%61%56%58%15%≈ n226
4Andrew Benintendi (L)377.31922%32%75%46%55%9%≈ n157
5Colson Montgomery (L)393.29637%33%64%44%58%11%≈ n239
6Braden Montgomery (S)216.35517%26%76%42%59%9%≈ n227
7Chase Meidroth (R)408.28623%28%82%32%64%8%≈ n190
8Tristan Peters (L)372.32717%32%79%35%57%9%≈ n149
9Jake Rogers (R)121.25429%24%78%32%53%9%≈ n83

Minnesota Twins bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Luke Keaschall (R)16811%25%26%.32322%83%23% n16865%9%≈ n176
2Kaelen Culpepper (R)3422%45%50%.27650%64%·62%8%·
3Ryan Jeffers (R)1129%16%13%.37219%89%13% n11166%12%≈ n168
4Josh Bell (S)17214%22%24%.30129%82%34% n17363%9%≈ n210
5Royce Lewis (R)11616%40%33%.35635%75%39% n11662%10%≈ n245
6Kody Clemens (L)12920%23%·.32930%79%34% n12964%13%≈ n192
7Brooks Lee (S)17310%29%22%.24837%81%31% n17364%10%≈ n228
8Gabriel Gonzalez (R)4··········
9Ryan Kreidler (R)10021%27%33%.28925%75%39% n10056%8%≈ n75

Minnesota Twins hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Luke Keaschall (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB11%
BRK25%
OFF26%

vs LHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 17% (168 PA)

2

Kaelen Culpepper (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB22%
BRK45%
OFF50%

only 34 PA vs LHP — too few to split

3

Ryan Jeffers (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB9%
BRK16%
OFF13%

vs LHP 0.372 xwOBA, K 13% (112 PA)

4

Josh Bell (S)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB14%
BRK22%
OFF24%

vs LHP 0.301 xwOBA, K 18% (172 PA)

5

Royce Lewis (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB16%
BRK40%
OFF33%

vs LHP 0.356 xwOBA, K 21% (116 PA)

6

Kody Clemens (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB20%
BRK23%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.329 xwOBA, K 22% (129 PA)

7

Brooks Lee (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB10%
BRK29%
OFF22%

vs LHP 0.248 xwOBA, K 23% (173 PA)

8

Gabriel Gonzalez (R)

FB·
BRK·
OFF·

only 4 PA vs LHP — too few to split

9

Ryan Kreidler (R)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB21%
BRK27%
OFF33%

vs LHP 0.289 xwOBA, K 16% (100 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Taj Bradley

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 12% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 4% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.465 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (34 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 21% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (33 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.544 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.386 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (22 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 21% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (88 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.465 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (31 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.420 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (29 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Jake Rogers

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Minnesota Twins: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 39-for-51 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Luke Keaschall (R)28.7 ft/s9.1% (30/322)occasional-7 2B
2Kaelen Culpepper (R)·3.6% (1/39)holds·
3Ryan Jeffers (R)26.5 ft/s1.4% (3/272)holds·
4Josh Bell (S)26.1 ft/s1.6% (5/355)holds·
5Royce Lewis (R)27.8 ft/s9.9% (25/242)occasional-5 3B
6Kody Clemens (L)27.7 ft/s4.8% (12/255)holds+2 1B
7Brooks Lee (S)26.4 ft/s3.7% (12/335)holds-8 SS
8Gabriel Gonzalez (R)··no read·
9Ryan Kreidler (R)27.9 ft/s5.7% (5/87)holds+0 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Ryan Jeffers — runners went 85-for-94 against him (10% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.1% (17/201)occasional-5 LF
2Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.2% (16/391)holds-2 3B
3Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/182)holds+0 1B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/272)holds·
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/228)holds+6 SS
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.7% (1/105)holds·
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.1% (13/430)holds+4 2B
8Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.2% (6/149)holds+9 CF
9Jake Rogers (R)26.3 ft/s2.0% (1/87)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0209/0309/04 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·8·1313p/11g22%21%.3074-seam 91 (65%) · changeup 80 (21%)
Grant Taylor (R)··18today256p/13g32%26%.2604-seam 98 (40%) · curveball 84 (25%)
Hagen Smith (L)··26today235p/9g36%36%.2784-seam 94 (50%) · slider 83 (31%)
Sean Newcomb (L)41··2 heavy218p/8g23%21%.3104-seam 95 (38%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Erick Fedde (R)···11 heavy209p/5g16%18%.333sweeper 82 (38%) · sinker 94 (34%)
Jordan Hicks (R)···3175p/9g27%25%.282sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···10166p/10g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Bryan Hudson (L)··11today154p/12g22%22%.2784-seam 92 (71%) · sweeper 79 (29%)
Minnesota Twins bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0109/0209/04 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Kody Funderburk (L)·29·1206p/12g20%22%.312cutter 93 (39%) · sinker 94 (31%)
Tommy Nance (R)·34·1195p/10g25%24%.320slider 90 (56%) · sinker 94 (23%)
Andrew Morris (R)···5189p/11g21%19%.2824-seam 98 (53%) · cutter 93 (26%)
Travis Adams (R)93·1185p/9g26%25%.318slider 88 (30%) · 4-seam 94 (23%)
Jeff Hoffman (R)·12·1180p/11g34%34%.302slider 86 (51%) · 4-seam 96 (37%)
Taylor Rogers (L)·1119today B2B179p/10g19%17%.329sweeper 77 (50%) · sinker 92 (30%)
Yoendrys Gómez (R)·15·1162p/10g21%23%.3534-seam 97 (58%) · sweeper 86 (19%)
A.J. Minter (L)·17·1158p/12g21%21%.291cutter 90 (60%) · 4-seam 94 (21%)