CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-08 22:40 UTC

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-08, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Sean Burke (R) against Bubba Chandler (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-07.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Bubba Chandler (RHP)

2340 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (325 BF) / 21% vs RHB (267 BF)

27 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 86 pitches (IQR 83–91, 26 starts) · fastball +0.2 mph late (17 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3620%
BB%1512%
CSW%1625%
Whiff%2420%
Chase%3028%
xwOBA vs52.314
Hard-hit%4738%
GB%4240%
1st-pitch strike%3660%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
508/08
NYM
508/14
BOS
608/21
LAD
308/26
SD
409/02
SF

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam112450%45%98.4+17-8240518%23%26%46%41%.343+0.3
slider48517%26%91.0+4+1240025%28%36%23%36%.297+0.2
changeup34921%7%91.6+7-17200324%25%29%18%35%.283-0.4
sinker1755%11%97.9+12-14228110%26%31%3%24%.316-1.5
sweeper1022%7%87.7+1+9250526%25%22%5%30%.217-0.1
curveball985%3%86.5-3+1238711%27%14%5%46%.275+1.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
slider
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +17 IVB, -8 HBslider: +4 IVB, +1 HBchangeup: +7 IVB, -17 HBsinker: +12 IVB, -14 HBsweeper: +1 IVB, +9 HBcurveball: -3 IVB, +1 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 46% of his first pitches, only 18% whiffs, 51% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Vs lefties he leans changeup (21% of pitches to that side).

Sean Burke (RHP)

2551 pitches, K% 26% vs LHB (372 BF) / 26% vs RHB (268 BF)

28 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 91–98, 24 starts) · fastball +0.1 mph late (24 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7726%
BB%528%
CSW%7128%
Whiff%5023%
Chase%6632%
xwOBA vs71.297
Hard-hit%5438%
GB%1535%
1st-pitch strike%7064%
published K forecast: E[K] 5.1
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/01, 7 days ago
808/11
CIN
208/16
DET
408/21
NYM
308/26
TEX
609/01
HOU

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam94338%35%94.8+19-4258522%26%34%50%44%.269-1.3
knuckle-curve51125%13%79.2-14+5245525%31%27%20%40%.252+0.4
slider46210%29%86.6+4+5253032%36%38%16%39%.319-0.2
sinker36912%18%94.7+15-1324059%21%30%9%49%.358+0.0
cutter21511%5%90.1+9+3264026%36%27%3%54%.352-0.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
knuckle-curve
slider

Movement

4-seam: +19 IVB, -4 HBknuckle-curve: -14 IVB, +5 HBslider: +4 IVB, +5 HBsinker: +15 IVB, -13 HBcutter: +9 IVB, +3 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Cruz (41%), Griffin (37%).
  • Careful with Horwitz: 86% contact, 15% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Bubba Chandler

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)396.35614%21%87%35%63%4%≈ n188
2Miguel Vargas (R)442.36818%21%82%41%66%12%▲ +5% n203
3Munetaka Murakami (L)332.36133%23%61%56%59%14%≈ n220
4Andrew Benintendi (L)381.32122%32%75%47%57%13%≈ n147
5Colson Montgomery (L)399.29937%33%65%45%60%14%≈ n233
6Braden Montgomery (S)222.35317%26%76%41%61%9%≈ n214
7Tristan Peters (L)379.32817%32%79%36%59%14%≈ n156
8Chase Meidroth (R)416.28623%28%82%32%65%8%≈ n179
9Kyle Teel (L)61.32138%33%67%52%58%10%·

Pittsburgh Pirates bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Konnor Griffin (R)19323%37%44%.29339%70%36% n19364%10%≈ n22
2Brandon Lowe (L)40326%35%35%.35831%69%36% n40462%12%≈ n209
3Bryan Reynolds (S)41618%37%24%.36823%75%40% n41664%11%≈ n198
4Oneil Cruz (L)24425%41%49%.36930%65%36% n24463%12%≈ n125
5Esmerlyn Valdez (R)17036%35%48%.29722%64%32% n17055%10%≈ n163
6Spencer Horwitz (L)32710%19%20%.31624%86%20% n32764%8%≈ n138
7Rafael Flores Jr. (R)5027%27%·.33730%70%·59%12%≈ n145
8Jacob Gonzalez (L)17418%20%20%.31039%81%41% n17452%7%≈ n129
9Jake Mangum (S)30918%16%24%.29943%82%40% n30959%7%≈ n160

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Konnor Griffin (R)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB23%
BRK37%
OFF44%

vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 26% (193 PA)

2

Brandon Lowe (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB26%
BRK35%
OFF35%

vs RHP 0.358 xwOBA, K 25% (403 PA)

3

Bryan Reynolds (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB18%
BRK37%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.368 xwOBA, K 24% (416 PA)

4

Oneil Cruz (L)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB25%
BRK41%
OFF49%

vs RHP 0.369 xwOBA, K 32% (244 PA)

5

Esmerlyn Valdez (R)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB36%
BRK35%
OFF48%

vs RHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 41% (170 PA)

6

Spencer Horwitz (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB10%
BRK19%
OFF20%

vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 15% (327 PA)

7

Rafael Flores Jr. (R)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB27%
BRK27%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.337 xwOBA, K 30% (50 PA)

8

Jacob Gonzalez (L)

P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB18%
BRK20%
OFF20%

vs RHP 0.310 xwOBA, K 20% (174 PA)

9

Jake Mangum (S)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB18%
BRK16%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.299 xwOBA, K 19% (309 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Bubba Chandler

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 12% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 4% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +14 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 25% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (34 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.544 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 25% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (89 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.465 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (26 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (32 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.372 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.318 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Kyle Teel

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Pittsburgh Pirates: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 43-for-53 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Konnor Griffin (R)29.9 ft/s16.8% (18/92)runner-6 SS
2Brandon Lowe (L)26.9 ft/s1.3% (4/365)holds+10 2B
3Bryan Reynolds (S)28.1 ft/s1.8% (7/442)holds-4 LF
4Oneil Cruz (L)28.4 ft/s20.5% (61/281)runner-3 CF
5Esmerlyn Valdez (R)28.0 ft/s2.1% (1/80)holds·
6Spencer Horwitz (L)24.9 ft/s0.4% (0/291)holds-3 1B
7Rafael Flores Jr. (R)·1.9% (0/41)holds·
8Jacob Gonzalez (L)26.6 ft/s4.5% (2/48)holds·
9Jake Mangum (S)29.4 ft/s12.8% (47/355)occasional+1 CF

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Rafael Flores Jr. — only 17 attempts against him, too few to say anything.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.1% (17/203)occasional-5 LF
2Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.3% (17/397)holds-2 3B
3Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/184)holds+0 1B
4Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/273)holds·
5Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/230)holds+6 SS
6Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.7% (1/107)holds·
7Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.2% (6/150)holds+9 CF
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.3% (14/437)holds+4 2B
9Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.8% (2/152)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0409/0509/06 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·18·1274p/10g22%21%.3054-seam 91 (65%) · changeup 80 (22%)
Hagen Smith (L)26·35today heavy270p/10g37%34%.2644-seam 94 (51%) · slider 83 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)18·32today248p/13g32%26%.2624-seam 98 (37%) · curveball 84 (25%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·24·1224p/8g22%21%.3084-seam 95 (38%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Jordan Hicks (R)··23today182p/9g28%25%.276sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)·10·1147p/5g12%19%.368slider 88 (45%) · 4-seam 93 (31%)
Bryan Hudson (L)11··2141p/11g22%22%.2744-seam 92 (72%) · sweeper 79 (28%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···12127p/8g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (35%)
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0409/0509/06 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Yohan Ramírez (R)·31·1226p/10g27%26%.298sweeper 84 (58%) · sinker 96 (20%)
Camilo Doval (R)··13today224p/13g23%24%.303slider 89 (40%) · sinker 97 (36%)
Mason Montgomery (L)21·16today210p/14g38%30%.254sinker 99 (56%) · 4-seam 99 (26%)
Kirby Yates (R)···6191p/11g28%26%.2884-seam 91 (68%) · splitter 84 (30%)
Gregory Soto (L)··10today166p/12g28%28%.272sinker 96 (44%) · slider 84 (33%)
Carmen Mlodzinski (R)··15today156p/4g18%19%.343splitter 87 (28%) · 4-seam 95 (22%)
Luke Weaver (R)···3150p/9g27%28%.2724-seam 96 (49%) · changeup 88 (34%)
Lake Bachar (R)···9127p/4g25%28%.293slider 89 (41%) · curveball 86 (24%)