Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-09, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Davis Martin (R) against Lake Bachar (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-08.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their starter Lake Bachar, listed as an opener — 47 apps, median 7 BF; expect the pen early — the bulk arm is the real matchup.
2Their bats highest board probability Oneil Cruz 17%. see the grid
3Run environment board total 8.67, P(over 8.5) 47%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.

Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Pittsburgh Pirates: no flags. see bullpens
Our bats highest board probability Chase Meidroth 60%, lowest Andrew Benintendi 50% (10 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
Air 75°F · 3 mph blowing out to center · air 3.6% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Lake Bachar (RHP)

1279 pitches, K% 25% vs LHB (178 BF) / 25% vs RHB (139 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (47 appearances, median 7 batters, deepest 2×). The bulk of the game is very likely Carmen Mlodzinski — behind the opener in 2 of 4 recent opener games. His panel is below; prep him, not this arsenal.

47 apps · median 7 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exits at 38 pitches (IQR 36–44, 8 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7125%

BB%3210%

CSW%7028%

Whiff%8328%

Chase%2928%

xwOBA vs76.293

Hard-hit%7734%

GB%2638%

1st-pitch strike%3360%

recent starts, K (n=5)

106/19
SF

408/16
BOS

108/23
LAD

208/29
STL

309/03
SF

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	377	33%	25%	94.4	+18	-9	2708	16%	22%	25%	26%	43%	.313	-1.1
slider	301	22%	26%	89.8	+3	+1	2689	36%	34%	27%	19%	43%	.314	-0.4
curveball	238	23%	13%	86.2	-7	+2	2884	37%	37%	31%	23%	34%	.207	-2.2
sweeper	200	10%	23%	86.5	-1	+8	3068	35%	29%	32%	22%	30%	.320	+0.5
splitter	102	9%	6%	84.2	+6	-16	1650	35%	22%	30%	8%	30%	.303	+0.6
sinker	60	3%	7%	93.1	+9	-16	2678	12%	15%	19%	3%	·	.257	-2.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

slider

curveball

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the 4-seam early: 33% of his first pitches, only 16% whiffs, 55% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the sweeper below the zone: 35% whiffs, only 40% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans sweeper (23% of pitches to that side).

Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)

1912 pitches, K% 17% vs LHB (302 BF) / 20% vs RHB (191 BF)

32 apps · median 15 BF · reaches the order 2.0× (max 4) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 71–88, 12 starts) · fastball -0.3 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2118%

BB%648%

CSW%5327%

Whiff%1919%

Chase%4429%

xwOBA vs22.343

Hard-hit%447%

GB%4741%

1st-pitch strike%5662%

recent starts, K (n=5) last start 08/17, 23 days ago

105/20
STL

205/25
CHC

108/07
NYM

108/12
MIA

308/17
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	526	30%	23%	95.1	+12	-10	2106	15%	25%	27%	29%	46%	.373	+1.0
splitter	493	34%	13%	85.8	-1	-9	1690	30%	26%	38%	32%	24%	.277	-1.4
sinker	336	11%	29%	94.4	+6	-17	2051	3%	28%	18%	9%	48%	.409	+0.8
curveball	215	13%	8%	83.9	-9	+7	2607	26%	30%	31%	13%	26%	.330	-0.0
sweeper	206	6%	19%	83.5	-2	+12	2568	21%	31%	26%	13%	44%	.273	-1.1
slider	70	2%	6%	90.5	+8	+1	2358	20%	24%	28%	3%	·	.333	+0.5
cutter	64	4%	2%	92.3	+12	-3	2420	8%	25%	30%	1%	·	.466	+2.0

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

splitter

sinker

Movement

Likely bulk starter behind Lake Bachar

Hunt the 4-seam early: 28% of his first pitches, only 15% whiffs, 60% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs lefties he leans splitter (34% of pitches to that side).
Lay off the splitter below the zone: 30% whiffs, only 38% of them are strikes.

Davis Martin (RHP)

2115 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (319 BF) / 22% vs RHB (234 BF)

25 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 84–92, 25 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3821%

BB%697%

CSW%3426%

Whiff%4022%

Chase%7132%

xwOBA vs32.332

Hard-hit%1444%

GB%5243%

1st-pitch strike%1758%

published K forecast: E[K] 4.0

recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/02, 7 days ago

607/29
NYY

108/04
BOS

108/09
CLE

308/13
CIN

309/02
HOU

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	561	30%	22%	93.9	+14	-5	2412	20%	24%	28%	30%	40%	.314	+0.2
sinker	393	15%	25%	92.8	+8	-14	2399	7%	21%	25%	12%	61%	.351	-1.2
curveball	298	17%	10%	81.7	-8	+14	2876	39%	32%	29%	15%	34%	.270	+0.2
changeup	287	18%	8%	90.1	+1	-13	2120	13%	20%	37%	15%	40%	.338	-1.8
slider	277	5%	26%	87.1	+1	+5	2605	35%	29%	48%	19%	26%	.298	+1.5
cutter	267	16%	9%	89.7	+7	+2	2575	25%	32%	27%	9%	56%	.422	-0.0

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

sinker

curveball

Movement

Attack plan vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Cruz (41%), Reynolds (37%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Cruz (49%), Valdez (47%).
Careful with Horwitz: 86% contact, 15% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Lake Bachar

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	400	.355	14%	21%	87%	35%	58%	5%	≈ n188
2	Andrew Benintendi (L)	385	.325	22%	32%	75%	47%	50%	11%	≈ n152
3	Munetaka Murakami (L)	336	.357	34%	23%	61%	56%	56%	15%	≈ n226
4	Randal Grichuk (R)	77	.286	22%	32%	71%	45%	50%	10%	≈ n101
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	403	.297	37%	33%	65%	45%	58%	14%	≈ n234
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	225	.352	17%	26%	76%	42%	56%	9%	≈ n217
7	Tristan Peters (L)	382	.326	17%	32%	80%	36%	53%	11%	≈ n157
8	Chase Meidroth (R)	419	.284	23%	28%	82%	32%	60%	8%	≈ n175
9	Kyle Teel (L)	64	.340	38%	34%	67%	55%	52%	14%	≈ n19

Pittsburgh Pirates bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Konnor Griffin (R)	198	23%	36%	42%	.302	39%	71%	36% n198	66%	10%	≈ n37
2	Brandon Lowe (L)	407	25%	35%	35%	.360	31%	70%	37% n408	67%	15%	≈ n207
3	Bryan Reynolds (S)	420	18%	37%	25%	.369	23%	75%	40% n420	66%	11%	≈ n201
4	Nick Gonzales (R)	383	18%	24%	29%	.346	31%	80%	35% n383	65%	6%	≈ n153
5	Oneil Cruz (L)	248	25%	41%	49%	.370	30%	65%	35% n248	65%	17%	≈ n135
6	Esmerlyn Valdez (R)	174	35%	35%	47%	.304	21%	64%	32% n174	57%	10%	≈ n161
7	Spencer Horwitz (L)	330	10%	19%	20%	.316	24%	86%	20% n330	67%	9%	≈ n145
8	Rafael Flores Jr. (R)	54	25%	30%	·	.366	30%	70%	·	60%	16%	≈ n153
9	Jacob Gonzalez (L)	178	19%	19%	20%	.307	39%	81%	40% n178	53%	7%	≈ n130

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Konnor Griffin (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB23%

BRK36%

OFF42%

vs RHP 0.302 xwOBA, K 26% (198 PA)

Brandon Lowe (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB25%

BRK35%

OFF35%

vs RHP 0.360 xwOBA, K 25% (407 PA)

Bryan Reynolds (S)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB18%

BRK37%

OFF25%

vs RHP 0.369 xwOBA, K 24% (420 PA)

Nick Gonzales (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB18%

BRK24%

OFF29%

vs RHP 0.346 xwOBA, K 16% (383 PA)

Oneil Cruz (L)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 17%

FB25%

BRK41%

OFF49%

vs RHP 0.370 xwOBA, K 31% (248 PA)

Esmerlyn Valdez (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB35%

BRK35%

OFF47%

vs RHP 0.304 xwOBA, K 40% (174 PA)

Spencer Horwitz (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB10%

BRK19%

OFF20%

vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 15% (330 PA)

Rafael Flores Jr. (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB25%

BRK30%

OFF·

vs RHP 0.366 xwOBA, K 28% (54 PA)

Jacob Gonzalez (L)

P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB19%

BRK19%

OFF20%

vs RHP 0.307 xwOBA, K 20% (178 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Lake Bachar

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.443 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (35 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.544 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Randal Grichuk

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.381 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (92 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.467 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.410 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (30 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Kyle Teel

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Pittsburgh Pirates: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 44-for-55 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Konnor Griffin (R)	29.9 ft/s	16.4% (18/95)	runner	-6 SS
2	Brandon Lowe (L)	26.9 ft/s	1.3% (4/368)	holds	+10 2B
3	Bryan Reynolds (S)	28.1 ft/s	1.8% (7/442)	holds	-4 LF
4	Nick Gonzales (R)	28.8 ft/s	3.0% (11/377)	holds	-3 3B
5	Oneil Cruz (L)	28.4 ft/s	20.7% (62/283)	runner	-3 CF
6	Esmerlyn Valdez (R)	28.0 ft/s	2.1% (1/81)	holds	·
7	Spencer Horwitz (L)	24.9 ft/s	0.4% (0/294)	holds	-3 1B
8	Rafael Flores Jr. (R)	·	1.7% (0/45)	holds	·
9	Jacob Gonzalez (L)	26.6 ft/s	4.5% (2/49)	holds	·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Rafael Flores Jr. — only 17 attempts against him, too few to say anything.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	8.0% (17/204)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.7% (1/273)	holds	·
3	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.0% (3/184)	holds	+0 1B
4	Randal Grichuk (R)	27.3 ft/s	1.6% (1/115)	holds	·
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.9% (1/230)	holds	+6 SS
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	1.7% (1/109)	holds	·
7	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.2% (6/150)	holds	+9 CF
8	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.3% (14/437)	holds	+4 2B
9	Kyle Teel (L)	27.0 ft/s	1.8% (2/154)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/05	09/06	09/08	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	18	·	·	2	274p/10g	22%	21%	.305	4-seam 91 (65%) · changeup 80 (22%)
Hagen Smith (L)	·	35	·	1 heavy	270p/10g	37%	34%	.264	4-seam 94 (51%) · slider 83 (31%)
Grant Taylor (R)	·	32	·	1	231p/12g	32%	26%	.262	4-seam 98 (36%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	24	·	·	2	216p/7g	22%	21%	.308	4-seam 95 (38%) · slurve 83 (30%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	10	·	33	today	180p/6g	12%	19%	.358	slider 88 (42%) · 4-seam 93 (29%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	·	23	·	1	169p/8g	28%	25%	.276	sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (30%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	·	·	·	3	128p/10g	22%	22%	.274	4-seam 91 (71%) · sweeper 79 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)	·	·	·	13	127p/8g	21%	24%	.295	sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (35%)

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/05	09/06	09/08	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Yohan Ramírez (R)	31	·	11	today	237p/11g	27%	26%	.299	sweeper 84 (58%) · sinker 96 (21%)
Camilo Doval (R)	·	13	·	1	224p/13g	23%	24%	.303	slider 89 (40%) · sinker 97 (36%)
Mason Montgomery (L)	·	16	·	1	210p/14g	38%	30%	.254	sinker 99 (56%) · 4-seam 99 (26%)
Kirby Yates (R)	·	·	·	7	178p/10g	28%	26%	.288	4-seam 91 (67%) · splitter 84 (31%)
Gregory Soto (L)	·	10	·	1	166p/12g	28%	28%	.272	sinker 96 (44%) · slider 84 (33%)
Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	·	15	·	1	156p/4g	18%	19%	.343	splitter 87 (28%) · 4-seam 95 (22%)
Luke Weaver (R)	·	·	·	4	150p/9g	27%	28%	.272	4-seam 96 (49%) · changeup 88 (34%)
Wilber Dotel (R)	·	·	28	today	96p/3g	25%	22%	.303	4-seam 99 (52%) · slider 89 (24%)