Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-10, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Hagen Smith (L) against Jared Jones (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-09.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 67%, lowest Jake Rogers 48% (19 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Rafael Flores Jr. 16%. see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 threw 35+ last time. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1 on back-to-back days. see bullpens

Their starter Jared Jones, board E[K] 5.5 — 17 apps, median 20 BF.
Run environment board total 8.80, P(over 8.5) 48%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 72°F · 9 mph, across · air 2.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Jared Jones (RHP)

1312 pitches, K% 29% vs LHB (197 BF) / 26% vs RHB (137 BF)

17 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 77 pitches (IQR 74–83, 17 starts) · fastball -0.9 mph late (4 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%8328%

BB%518%

CSW%8329%

Whiff%8929%

Chase%5430%

xwOBA vs73.296

Hard-hit%4139%

GB%3840%

1st-pitch strike%1958%

published K forecast: E[K] 5.5

recent starts, K (n=5)

308/09
NYM

708/15
BOS

508/22
LAD

608/28
STL

909/04
LAA

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	603	47%	44%	98.3	+16	-9	2544	19%	25%	24%	42%	42%	.335	+0.2
slider	458	29%	45%	89.7	+1	+3	2696	37%	36%	37%	37%	41%	.252	-0.7
changeup	152	15%	6%	93.0	+4	-12	1637	39%	24%	28%	12%	33%	.296	+1.6
curveball	99	9%	6%	85.7	-10	+6	2942	36%	34%	37%	9%	29%	.272	+0.5

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

slider

changeup

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the 4-seam early: 51% of his first pitches, only 19% whiffs, 54% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 39% whiffs, only 33% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans slider (45% of pitches to that side).

Hagen Smith (LHP) limited 2026 sample

270 pitches, K% 37% overall (62 BF; split withheld, short side only 21 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (10 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

10 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exits at 26 pitches (IQR 18–34, 10 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%9937%

BB%216%

CSW%9935%

Whiff%9934%

Chase%5230%

xwOBA vs93.264

Hard-hit%7634%

GB%2838%

1st-pitch strike%048%

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	137	48%	52%	93.9	+14	+8	2415	29%	36%	24%	41%	37%	.317	-2.1
slider	83	43%	26%	83.3	-4	-5	2417	43%	36%	44%	44%	30%	.204	-3.6
cutter	40	8%	18%	88.5	+5	-3	2467	29%	38%	22%	7%	·	·	·
changeup	10	1%	5%	87.7	+4	+13	1555	·	10%	·	8%	·	·	·

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

slider

cutter

Movement

Attack plan vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Slider: top breaking whiffs are Lowe (47%), Cruz (43%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Lowe (68%), Flores Jr. (41%).
Careful with Triolo: 85% contact, 14% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Jared Jones

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	402	.354	14%	21%	87%	35%	63%	5%	≈ n194
2	Miguel Vargas (R)	447	.365	18%	21%	82%	41%	67%	15%	≈ n204
3	Munetaka Murakami (L)	338	.358	34%	23%	61%	56%	57%	17%	≈ n221
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	386	.325	22%	32%	75%	48%	54%	12%	≈ n156
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	405	.296	37%	33%	65%	44%	58%	14%	≈ n241
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	228	.356	17%	25%	76%	42%	58%	10%	≈ n215
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	423	.284	23%	28%	82%	33%	62%	9%	≈ n188
8	Tristan Peters (L)	386	.326	17%	32%	79%	36%	57%	12%	≈ n161
9	Jake Rogers (R)	123	.252	29%	24%	78%	33%	48%	9%	≈ n69

Pittsburgh Pirates bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Konnor Griffin (R)	67	17%	41%	38%	.314	39%	71%	·	61%	10%	▲ +13% n45
2	Oneil Cruz (L)	112	21%	43%	·	.319	33%	66%	36% n112	61%	15%	≈ n141
3	Bryan Reynolds (S)	215	20%	40%	29%	.348	28%	72%	45% n215	62%	11%	≈ n202
4	Nick Gonzales (R)	175	11%	31%	34%	.288	32%	79%	35% n175	65%	6%	≈ n150
5	Brandon Lowe (L)	188	24%	47%	68%	.244	41%	62%	37% n187	61%	11%	≈ n214
6	Rafael Flores Jr. (R)	57	18%	35%	41%	.343	28%	73%	·	57%	16%	≈ n155
7	Jake Mangum (S)	120	13%	23%	29%	.274	48%	82%	48% n120	57%	6%	≈ n158
8	Spencer Horwitz (L)	82	20%	21%	·	.290	25%	80%	·	61%	9%	≈ n150
9	Jared Triolo (R)	130	11%	16%	28%	.336	25%	85%	28% n130	54%	8%	≈ n122

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Konnor Griffin (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB17%

BRK41%

OFF38%

vs LHP 0.314 xwOBA, K 28% (67 PA)

Oneil Cruz (L)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB21%

BRK43%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 41% (112 PA)

Bryan Reynolds (S)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB20%

BRK40%

OFF29%

vs LHP 0.348 xwOBA, K 22% (215 PA)

Nick Gonzales (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB11%

BRK31%

OFF34%

vs LHP 0.288 xwOBA, K 16% (175 PA)

Brandon Lowe (L)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB24%

BRK47%

OFF68%

vs LHP 0.244 xwOBA, K 38% (188 PA)

Rafael Flores Jr. (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB18%

BRK35%

OFF41%

vs LHP 0.343 xwOBA, K 28% (57 PA)

Jake Mangum (S)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB13%

BRK23%

OFF29%

vs LHP 0.274 xwOBA, K 21% (120 PA)

Spencer Horwitz (L)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB20%

BRK21%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.290 xwOBA, K 18% (82 PA)

Jared Triolo (R)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB11%

BRK16%

OFF28%

vs LHP 0.336 xwOBA, K 14% (130 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Jared Jones

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 12% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 21% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (35 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.529 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.330 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 21% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 46% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (94 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.476 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (32 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.399 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (30 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Jake Rogers

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 48% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Pittsburgh Pirates: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 39-for-51 against him (24% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Konnor Griffin (R)	29.9 ft/s	17.6% (20/98)	runner	-6 SS
2	Oneil Cruz (L)	28.4 ft/s	20.6% (62/284)	runner	-3 CF
3	Bryan Reynolds (S)	28.1 ft/s	1.8% (7/442)	holds	-4 LF
4	Nick Gonzales (R)	28.8 ft/s	3.0% (11/378)	holds	-3 3B
5	Brandon Lowe (L)	26.9 ft/s	1.3% (4/373)	holds	+10 2B
6	Rafael Flores Jr. (R)	·	1.7% (0/46)	holds	·
7	Jake Mangum (S)	29.4 ft/s	13.0% (48/357)	occasional	+1 CF
8	Spencer Horwitz (L)	24.9 ft/s	0.4% (0/295)	holds	-3 1B
9	Jared Triolo (R)	28.5 ft/s	7.0% (19/268)	occasional	-1 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Behind the plate: Rafael Flores Jr. — only 17 attempts against him, too few to say anything.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	8.0% (17/205)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Miguel Vargas (R)	28.3 ft/s	4.3% (17/397)	holds	-2 3B
3	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	2.0% (3/185)	holds	+0 1B
4	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.7% (1/273)	holds	·
5	Colson Montgomery (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.9% (1/230)	holds	+6 SS
6	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	1.6% (1/112)	holds	·
7	Chase Meidroth (R)	27.2 ft/s	3.3% (14/438)	holds	+4 2B
8	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	4.1% (6/153)	holds	+9 CF
9	Jake Rogers (R)	26.3 ft/s	2.0% (1/87)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/06	09/08	09/09	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	·	·	26	today	278p/10g	22%	21%	.304	4-seam 91 (63%) · changeup 80 (23%)
Grant Taylor (R)	32	·	·	2	231p/12g	32%	26%	.262	4-seam 98 (36%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	·	·	42	today heavy	229p/7g	22%	21%	.309	4-seam 95 (41%) · slurve 83 (26%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	33	·	1	180p/6g	12%	19%	.358	slider 88 (42%) · 4-seam 93 (29%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	23	·	·	2	155p/7g	28%	25%	.276	sinker 100 (41%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	·	·	·	4	111p/9g	22%	22%	.274	4-seam 92 (71%) · sweeper 79 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)	·	·	·	14	105p/7g	21%	24%	.295	sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Tyler Davis (R)	19	20	·	1	76p/5g	21%	21%	.294	4-seam 96 (64%) · slider 89 (29%)

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/06	09/08	09/09	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Yohan Ramírez (R)	·	11	4	today B2B	241p/12g	27%	26%	.300	sweeper 84 (59%) · sinker 96 (21%)
Camilo Doval (R)	13	·	26	today	222p/13g	23%	24%	.305	slider 89 (39%) · sinker 97 (37%)
Mason Montgomery (L)	16	·	17	today	212p/14g	38%	30%	.252	sinker 99 (54%) · 4-seam 99 (27%)
Luke Weaver (R)	·	·	17	today	167p/10g	26%	28%	.283	4-seam 96 (50%) · changeup 88 (35%)
Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	15	·	10	today	166p/5g	18%	19%	.342	splitter 87 (27%) · sinker 94 (22%)
Gregory Soto (L)	10	·	17	today	159p/12g	28%	28%	.274	sinker 96 (45%) · slider 84 (33%)
Kirby Yates (R)	·	·	·	8	149p/9g	28%	26%	.288	4-seam 91 (66%) · splitter 84 (33%)
Wilber Dotel (R)	·	28	·	1	96p/3g	25%	22%	.303	4-seam 99 (52%) · slider 89 (24%)