Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

2026-09-11, 8:15 PM ET, Busch Stadium. Anthony Kay (L) against Matthew Liberatore (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-10.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Their bats highest board probability Jordan Walker 15%. see the grid
2Pen posture Us: 2 threw 35+ last time. St. Louis Cardinals: no flags. see bullpens
3Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 65%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 52% (13 points of spread across the nine). see the grid

Their starter Matthew Liberatore, board E[K] 5.5 — 28 apps, median 22 BF.
Run environment board total 9.08, P(over 8.5) 51%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 77°F · 4 mph blowing in from center · air 3.3% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

2378 pitches, K% 23% vs LHB (154 BF) / 24% vs RHB (457 BF)

28 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 85 pitches (IQR 77–95, 28 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (12 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%6124%

BB%568%

CSW%6528%

Whiff%4823%

Chase%3529%

xwOBA vs27.338

Hard-hit%2642%

GB%2538%

1st-pitch strike%3860%

published K forecast: E[K] 5.5

recent starts, K (n=5)

608/14
CHC

908/19
CIN

708/25
BAL

908/30
PIT

309/05
COL

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	721	28%	31%	94.4	+17	+6	2112	11%	24%	24%	29%	53%	.387	+0.3
slider	628	40%	22%	86.1	+0	-4	2669	36%	34%	39%	35%	40%	.253	-0.1
curveball	412	10%	20%	79.6	-17	-10	3052	38%	31%	22%	21%	35%	.251	+1.0
changeup	314	0%	17%	88.6	+10	+14	1789	20%	22%	27%	5%	33%	.413	+0.9
sinker	192	16%	6%	94.3	+14	+13	2133	6%	28%	29%	6%	57%	.388	+2.2
cutter	94	5%	4%	90.5	+11	-1	2478	23%	24%	25%	0%	·	.379	+4.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam

slider

curveball

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the 4-seam early: 32% of his first pitches, only 11% whiffs, 60% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the curveball below the zone: 38% whiffs, only 35% of them are strikes.
Vs lefties he leans slider (40% of pitches to that side).

Anthony Kay (LHP)

2516 pitches, K% 28% vs LHB (169 BF) / 15% vs RHB (466 BF)

29 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 85–93, 27 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2318%

BB%598%

CSW%2826%

Whiff%4322%

Chase%7633%

xwOBA vs23.342

Hard-hit%3840%

GB%6645%

1st-pitch strike%3760%

published K forecast: E[K] 3.9

recent starts, K (n=5)

408/15
DET

608/20
ATL

408/25
TEX

508/31
HOU

309/05
MIN

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	576	16%	25%	95.8	+15	+7	2348	17%	24%	33%	26%	42%	.360	+0.1
sweeper	558	31%	19%	82.7	+0	-13	2438	34%	34%	23%	16%	31%	.327	+0.7
sinker	436	36%	11%	95.2	+5	+16	2261	16%	27%	37%	14%	57%	.345	-0.4
cutter	422	11%	19%	91.7	+7	-1	2390	17%	23%	32%	10%	30%	.447	+0.5
changeup	362	0%	20%	86.1	+0	+14	1744	29%	19%	37%	17%	17%	.253	+0.9
slider	162	6%	6%	86.3	-4	-4	2562	26%	20%	44%	17%	26%	.285	+1.7

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

sweeper

sinker

Movement

Attack plan vs St. Louis Cardinals

Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Saggese (45%), Báez (29%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Walker (40%), Báez (37%).
Careful with Fermín: 89% contact, 11% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Matthew Liberatore

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Chase Meidroth (R)	161	.333	19%	28%	84%	38%	61%	8%	≈ n192
2	Randal Grichuk (R)	151	.360	24%	36%	81%	51%	56%	13%	≈ n100
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	184	.436	17%	21%	85%	55%	65%	11%	≈ n210
4	Colson Montgomery (L)	175	.327	29%	32%	70%	36%	59%	16%	≈ n250
5	Edgar Quero (S)	88	.284	17%	28%	88%	38%	57%	10%	≈ n26
6	Brenton Doyle (R)	77	.260	29%	36%	67%	35%	53%	13%	≈ n72
7	Braden Montgomery (S)	86	.276	28%	31%	69%	38%	56%	8%	≈ n220
8	Jake Rogers (R)	39	.329	28%	28%	68%	52%	52%	8%	≈ n74
9	Luisangel Acuña (R)	97	.256	16%	34%	76%	41%	52%	6%	≈ n27

St. Louis Cardinals bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	José Fermín (R)	149	9%	10%	17%	.315	22%	89%	24% n149	66%	8%	≈ n144
2	Iván Herrera (R)	203	11%	26%	33%	.377	26%	81%	27% n203	68%	10%	≈ n230
3	Jordan Walker (R)	162	18%	27%	40%	.419	32%	74%	37% n162	66%	15%	≈ n230
4	Alec Burleson (L)	190	18%	24%	·	.313	37%	79%	42% n190	67%	12%	≈ n253
5	Joshua Báez (R)	38	31%	29%	37%	.315	42%	68%	·	60%	15%	·
6	Leo Bernal (S)	10	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
7	Thomas Saggese (R)	41	30%	45%	·	.354	33%	68%	·	65%	14%	≈ n78
8	Masyn Winn (R)	129	9%	21%	32%	.317	23%	83%	16% n129	63%	11%	≈ n65
9	Nathan Church (L)	92	12%	17%	·	.270	39%	85%	·	61%	7%	▲ +10% n156

St. Louis Cardinals hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

José Fermín (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB9%

BRK10%

OFF17%

vs LHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 11% (149 PA)

Iván Herrera (R)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB11%

BRK26%

OFF33%

vs LHP 0.377 xwOBA, K 15% (203 PA)

Jordan Walker (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB18%

BRK27%

OFF40%

vs LHP 0.419 xwOBA, K 21% (162 PA)

Alec Burleson (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB18%

BRK24%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.313 xwOBA, K 18% (190 PA)

Joshua Báez (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB31%

BRK29%

OFF37%

only 38 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Leo Bernal (S)

FB·

BRK·

OFF·

only 10 PA vs LHP — too few to split

Thomas Saggese (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 14%

FB30%

BRK45%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.354 xwOBA, K 32% (41 PA)

Masyn Winn (R)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB9%

BRK21%

OFF32%

vs LHP 0.317 xwOBA, K 20% (129 PA)

Nathan Church (L)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB12%

BRK17%

OFF·

vs LHP 0.270 xwOBA, K 15% (92 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Matthew Liberatore

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Chase Meidroth

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.373 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.318 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Randal Grichuk

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.653 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (15 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.597 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 6% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 38% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +15 points. (36 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.464 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (17 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.