CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-12 22:08 UTC

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

2026-09-12, 7:15 PM ET, Busch Stadium. Sean Newcomb (L) against Kyle Leahy (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-11.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Kyle Leahy (RHP)

2192 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (301 BF) / 24% vs RHB (259 BF)

27 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 78–90, 27 starts) · fastball -1.1 mph late (11 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4922%
BB%767%
CSW%3626%
Whiff%2520%
Chase%1627%
xwOBA vs27.339
Hard-hit%348%
GB%6945%
1st-pitch strike%5061%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
608/12
PHI
608/18
CIN
408/23
PHI
308/29
PIT
609/06
COL

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam57232%19%94.2+15-4217813%25%18%18%32%.433+1.0
curveball36120%12%83.0-11+9231326%26%30%22%35%.294+0.0
slider36013%20%89.3+4+5231422%29%27%8%45%.331-1.9
changeup31723%5%88.6+2-11145430%23%31%19%37%.307+0.4
sweeper2978%20%84.8+2+16263221%24%36%17%43%.311+0.6
sinker2844%24%94.2+11-13218610%31%22%16%63%.330-1.6

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
curveball
slider

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, -4 HBcurveball: -11 IVB, +9 HBslider: +4 IVB, +5 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, -11 HBsweeper: +2 IVB, +16 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -13 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 33% of his first pitches, only 13% whiffs, 59% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Vs righties he leans sinker (24% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the changeup below the zone: 30% whiffs, only 39% of them are strikes.

Sean Newcomb (LHP)

1332 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (135 BF) / 22% vs RHB (204 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (53 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

53 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exits at 36 pitches (IQR 32–39, 4 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%4622%
BB%628%
CSW%7128%
Whiff%3021%
Chase%1727%
xwOBA vs58.309
Hard-hit%6137%
GB%7647%
1st-pitch strike%3860%
recent starts, K (n=4) last start 08/23, 20 days ago
406/20
DET
208/14
DET
008/19
CHC
308/23
NYM

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam50532%42%94.7+14+10226125%30%30%42%54%.275-2.3
slurve42032%32%82.8-5-18285229%35%26%32%38%.270-1.0
sinker28437%13%93.5+4+1722597%24%25%14%54%.398+0.1
curveball480%6%80.8-14-13293819%19%23%8%40%.124·
changeup420%5%86.8+2+1314935%7%30%3%·.364·

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
slurve
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, +10 HBslurve: -5 IVB, -18 HBsinker: +4 IVB, +17 HBcurveball: -14 IVB, -13 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, +13 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs St. Louis Cardinals

  • Slurve/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Gorman (44%), Saggese (43%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Báez (33%), Herrera (33%).
  • Careful with Fermín: 89% contact, 11% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Kyle Leahy

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)406.35314%21%87%34%64%5%≈ n187
2Kyle Teel (L)68.33737%35%67%54%51%10%≈ n33
3Miguel Vargas (R)453.36618%22%82%41%68%12%≈ n215
4Munetaka Murakami (L)342.35534%23%61%56%58%17%≈ n221
5Andrew Benintendi (L)390.32222%33%75%47%56%12%≈ n165
6Tristan Peters (L)391.32218%33%79%36%59%12%≈ n178
7Chase Meidroth (R)428.28424%28%81%33%64%9%≈ n197
8Colson Montgomery (L)410.29737%33%64%44%59%15%≈ n252
9Braden Montgomery (S)232.35416%26%76%41%56%9%≈ n222

St. Louis Cardinals bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1José Fermín (R)1539%11%17%.31422%89%25% n15366%8%≈ n146
2Iván Herrera (R)20611%26%33%.37626%81%26% n20665%9%≈ n228
3Alec Burleson (L)19318%23%·.31437%79%41% n19366%11%≈ n253
4Joshua Báez (R)4131%27%33%.34444%70%·60%17%·
5Leo Bernal (S)13·····87%·65%11%·
6Nolan Gorman (L)4424%44%·.27439%66%·55%13%≈ n91
7Thomas Saggese (R)4429%43%·.35532%70%·64%10%≈ n82
8Masyn Winn (R)1329%22%32%.31723%83%15% n13261%10%▼ -10% n68
9Nathan Church (L)9511%16%·.27838%86%·62%6%▲ +10% n165

St. Louis Cardinals hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

José Fermín (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB9%
BRK11%
OFF17%

vs LHP 0.314 xwOBA, K 11% (153 PA)

2

Iván Herrera (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB11%
BRK26%
OFF33%

vs LHP 0.376 xwOBA, K 15% (206 PA)

3

Alec Burleson (L)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB18%
BRK23%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.314 xwOBA, K 18% (193 PA)

4

Joshua Báez (R)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 17%

FB31%
BRK27%
OFF33%

vs LHP 0.344 xwOBA, K 34% (41 PA)

5

Leo Bernal (S)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB·
BRK·
OFF·

only 13 PA vs LHP — too few to split

6

Nolan Gorman (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB24%
BRK44%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.274 xwOBA, K 27% (44 PA)

7

Thomas Saggese (R)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB29%
BRK43%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.355 xwOBA, K 30% (44 PA)

8

Masyn Winn (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB9%
BRK22%
OFF32%

vs LHP 0.317 xwOBA, K 20% (132 PA)

9

Nathan Church (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB11%
BRK16%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.278 xwOBA, K 15% (95 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Kyle Leahy

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (15 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker up-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 12% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (18 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (35 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.529 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (33 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.399 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (30 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (24 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 16% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (95 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.476 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

St. Louis Cardinals: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 48-for-59 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1José Fermín (R)27.4 ft/s4.3% (6/143)holds-1 3B
2Iván Herrera (R)25.9 ft/s2.8% (12/456)holds·
3Alec Burleson (L)25.6 ft/s1.9% (7/408)holds-1 1B
4Joshua Báez (R)·7.3% (2/21)occasional·
5Leo Bernal (S)·2.6% (0/22)holds·
6Nolan Gorman (L)25.2 ft/s1.0% (1/192)holds+1 3B
7Thomas Saggese (R)27.9 ft/s5.1% (7/138)holds·
8Masyn Winn (R)28.3 ft/s4.6% (16/350)holds+8 SS
9Nathan Church (L)28.5 ft/s8.4% (14/159)occasional+2 CF

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s7.9% (17/207)occasional-5 LF
2Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.8% (2/158)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.7% (19/403)holds-2 3B
4Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/186)holds+0 1B
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/273)holds·
6Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.1% (6/154)holds+9 CF
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.3% (14/443)holds+4 2B
8Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.9% (1/231)holds+6 SS
9Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.6% (1/112)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0909/1009/11 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)26·49today heavy327p/11g22%21%.3044-seam 91 (62%) · changeup 80 (24%)
Hagen Smith (L)···4 heavy222p/9g37%34%.2614-seam 94 (50%) · slider 83 (33%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)··26today206p/7g12%19%.367slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (32%)
Grant Taylor (R)···4195p/11g32%26%.2624-seam 98 (35%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·16·1171p/8g29%26%.273sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 99 (28%)
Bryan Hudson (L)·9·1110p/9g22%22%.2754-seam 91 (71%) · sweeper 79 (29%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···16105p/7g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (34%)
Tyler Davis (R)···376p/5g21%21%.2944-seam 96 (64%) · slider 89 (29%)
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0809/0909/11 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Luis Gastelum (R)·1224today B2B263p/15g30%32%.342changeup 82 (39%) · 4-seam 94 (29%)
Justin Bruihl (L)·1221today B2B245p/13g16%17%.321sweeper 78 (47%) · sinker 90 (36%)
Gordon Graceffo (R)32·15today205p/9g18%18%.333slider 86 (40%) · 4-seam 95 (33%)
George Soriano (R)·21·1204p/12g23%28%.330changeup 90 (30%) · 4-seam 97 (29%)
Riley O'Brien (R)··11today195p/12g23%24%.347sinker 97 (51%) · sweeper 82 (39%)
Ryne Stanek (R)··12today172p/13g24%26%.3164-seam 98 (54%) · splitter 91 (20%)
Ryan Fernandez (R)···8151p/6g28%30%.2914-seam 95 (40%) · slider 88 (40%)
Peter Strzelecki (R)···15144p/4g13%14%.294sinker 92 (36%) · curveball 82 (24%)