CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-13 20:08 UTC

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

2026-09-13, 2:15 PM ET, Busch Stadium. David Sandlin (R) against Michael McGreevy (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-12.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Michael McGreevy (RHP)

2504 pitches, K% 15% vs LHB (397 BF) / 20% vs RHB (238 BF)

28 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 87–94, 28 starts) · fastball -1.0 mph late (20 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%1417%
BB%787%
CSW%1425%
Whiff%1118%
Chase%3729%
xwOBA vs14.352
Hard-hit%2542%
GB%5944%
1st-pitch strike%2258%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.6
recent starts, K (n=5)
608/15
CHC
408/20
CIN
308/26
BAL
409/01
LAD
409/07
SF

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam61230%15%91.8+12-8223812%26%20%23%51%.389+0.8
changeup49426%8%86.9+2-14172126%20%38%22%23%.317-0.6
sinker4214%38%90.8+5-12219210%28%26%16%58%.307-2.4
curveball31616%7%78.5-12+13252123%32%33%13%15%.271-0.3
cutter28717%2%87.5+6+1231714%22%23%6%50%.403+0.5
sweeper2661%28%81.7-2+14245828%23%28%12%18%.422+2.0
slider1086%1%83.5-2+4239721%18%23%8%33%.447+0.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
changeup
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +12 IVB, -8 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, -14 HBsinker: +5 IVB, -12 HBcurveball: -12 IVB, +13 HBcutter: +6 IVB, +1 HBsweeper: -2 IVB, +14 HBslider: -2 IVB, +4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs righties he leans sinker (38% of pitches to that side).
  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 25% of his first pitches, only 12% whiffs, 52% in-zone on 0-0.
  • K rate splits 15% vs LHB / 20% vs RHB: the left-handed side of the platoon wears him better.

David Sandlin (RHP) limited 2026 sample

409 pitches, K% 23% overall (106 BF; split withheld, short side only 41 BF)

5 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 80 pitches (IQR 70–86, 3 starts) · fastball -2.4 mph late (2 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5423%
BB%1911%
CSW%2926%
Whiff%3121%
Chase%3729%
xwOBA vs47.318
Hard-hit%9330%
GB%5843%
1st-pitch strike%3259%
published K forecast: E[K] 3.6
recent starts, K (n=3) last start 06/26, 79 days ago
405/27
MIN
406/01
MIN
606/26
KC

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam15136%38%96.6+16-6228615%25%25%34%40%.378+1.6
curveball10732%18%83.0-8+5256025%35%38%22%54%.227-1.0
cutter6812%23%90.7+6+4234123%24%15%9%·.458-0.5
sinker369%9%94.9+12-1421307%14%22%7%···
changeup2711%0%91.3+7-9122631%15%39%15%···
sweeper200%12%85.7-1+12272036%25%·14%···

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
curveball
cutter

Movement

4-seam: +16 IVB, -6 HBcurveball: -8 IVB, +5 HBcutter: +6 IVB, +4 HBsinker: +12 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +7 IVB, -9 HBsweeper: -1 IVB, +12 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs St. Louis Cardinals

  • Curveball/sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Walker (38%), Scott II (38%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Walker (47%), Scott II (45%).
  • Careful with Herrera: 82% contact, 20% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Michael McGreevy

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)409.35514%21%87%34%68%5%≈ n183
2Kyle Teel (L)71.33537%34%67%53%55%11%≈ n38
3Miguel Vargas (R)456.36419%22%82%41%70%12%≈ n220
4Munetaka Murakami (L)345.35234%23%61%56%61%16%≈ n222
5Andrew Benintendi (L)391.32121%33%75%47%62%15%≈ n161
6Tristan Peters (L)395.32018%32%79%36%61%13%≈ n172
7Chase Meidroth (R)431.28324%28%81%32%62%10%≈ n198
8Colson Montgomery (L)412.29837%33%65%44%61%17%≈ n250
9Brenton Doyle (R)107.23036%32%73%30%51%10%▼ -11% n70

St. Louis Cardinals bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Victor Scott II (L)12718%38%45%.29721%74%38% n127···
2Iván Herrera (R)45911%27%30%.31629%82%31% n45966%9%≈ n229
3Alec Burleson (L)43319%28%16%.40738%80%39% n43366%15%≈ n254
4Jordan Walker (R)45122%38%47%.31937%70%47% n45166%16%≈ n227
5Leo Bernal (S)3317%··.38226%75%·65%20%·
6Ramón Urías (R)5818%26%·.20828%78%···≈ n54
7Thomas Saggese (R)8822%22%·.30236%77%·65%10%≈ n89
8Nathan Church (L)33117%22%24%.29443%80%36% n33262%7%▲ +9% n170
9Masyn Winn (R)36919%29%27%.29325%77%22% n369··≈ n68

St. Louis Cardinals hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Victor Scott II (L)

FB18%
BRK38%
OFF45%

vs RHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 28% (127 PA)

2

Iván Herrera (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB11%
BRK27%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 20% (459 PA)

3

Alec Burleson (L)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB19%
BRK28%
OFF16%

vs RHP 0.407 xwOBA, K 17% (433 PA)

4

Jordan Walker (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 16%

FB22%
BRK38%
OFF47%

vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 27% (451 PA)

5

Leo Bernal (S)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 20%

FB17%
BRK·
OFF·

only 33 PA vs RHP — too few to split

6

Ramón Urías (R)

FB18%
BRK26%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.208 xwOBA, K 17% (58 PA)

7

Thomas Saggese (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB22%
BRK22%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.302 xwOBA, K 24% (88 PA)

8

Nathan Church (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB17%
BRK22%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.294 xwOBA, K 18% (331 PA)

9

Masyn Winn (R)

FB19%
BRK29%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 22% (369 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Michael McGreevy

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.416 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 13% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 37% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (15 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 14% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (30 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 13% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (35 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.529 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 21% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (33 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.399 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (30 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and in on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 4% for a typical hitter — +12 points. (16 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 13% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (95 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

St. Louis Cardinals: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 48-for-59 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Victor Scott II (L)29.7 ft/s17.5% (43/230)runner+3 CF
2Iván Herrera (R)25.9 ft/s2.7% (12/459)holds·
3Alec Burleson (L)25.6 ft/s1.9% (7/409)holds-1 1B
4Jordan Walker (R)29.1 ft/s8.1% (28/337)occasional-6 RF
5Leo Bernal (S)·2.6% (0/22)holds·
6Ramón Urías (R)26.7 ft/s2.4% (3/148)holds·
7Thomas Saggese (R)27.9 ft/s5.1% (7/139)holds·
8Nathan Church (L)28.5 ft/s8.2% (14/162)occasional+2 CF
9Masyn Winn (R)28.3 ft/s4.6% (16/351)holds+8 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s7.8% (17/211)occasional-5 LF
2Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.7% (2/159)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.7% (19/404)holds-2 3B
4Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/189)holds+0 1B
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/273)holds·
6Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (6/155)holds+9 CF
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.3% (14/444)holds+4 2B
8Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/233)holds+6 SS
9Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s13.9% (33/224)runner·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1009/1109/12 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·49·1 heavy327p/11g22%21%.3044-seam 91 (62%) · changeup 80 (24%)
Grant Taylor (R)··38today heavy233p/12g32%26%.2684-seam 98 (32%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Hagen Smith (L)··21today228p/9g38%34%.2534-seam 94 (52%) · slider 83 (33%)
Sean Newcomb (L)···3 heavy219p/6g23%21%.3094-seam 95 (40%) · slurve 83 (26%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)·26·1206p/7g12%19%.367slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (32%)
Jordan Hicks (R)16·10today181p/9g28%25%.275sinker 100 (40%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)9·14today124p/10g22%21%.2724-seam 91 (67%) · sweeper 79 (33%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···1789p/6g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (36%)
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/0909/1109/12 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Luis Gastelum (R)122410today B2B259p/15g29%32%.339changeup 82 (37%) · 4-seam 94 (29%)
Justin Bruihl (L)122112today B2B241p/13g16%17%.320sweeper 78 (48%) · sinker 90 (35%)
George Soriano (R)21·20today224p/13g23%28%.331changeup 90 (32%) · slider 89 (29%)
Riley O'Brien (R)·1121today B2B216p/13g23%25%.345sinker 97 (50%) · sweeper 82 (38%)
Gordon Graceffo (R)·15·1183p/8g18%18%.333slider 86 (41%) · 4-seam 95 (32%)
Ryne Stanek (R)·1210today B2B182p/14g25%26%.3134-seam 98 (54%) · slider 89 (21%)
Ryan Fernandez (R)···9151p/6g28%30%.2914-seam 95 (40%) · slider 88 (40%)
Peter Strzelecki (R)···16144p/4g13%14%.294sinker 92 (36%) · curveball 82 (24%)