CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-14 23:09 UTC

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

2026-09-14, 6:40 PM ET, Progressive Field. Sean Newcomb (L) against Gavin Williams (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-13.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Gavin Williams (RHP)

2715 pitches, K% 35% vs LHB (409 BF) / 32% vs RHB (273 BF)

29 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 96 pitches (IQR 90–99, 29 starts) · fastball -1.0 mph late (24 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%9733%
BB%618%
CSW%9832%
Whiff%9330%
Chase%8133%
xwOBA vs68.302
Hard-hit%447%
GB%6044%
1st-pitch strike%6863%
published K forecast: E[K] 7.0
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/06, 8 days ago
508/14
SD
1108/20
SF
308/25
LAA
1309/01
TOR
1109/06
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sweeper75823%35%87.5-1+11229842%35%40%36%33%.223-1.1
4-seam72330%22%97.6+14-11230028%28%30%29%37%.312-0.8
curveball60527%17%82.6-14+11246430%33%36%24%36%.265+0.1
sinker43211%23%97.0+9-16204714%33%19%7%55%.427+1.0
cutter1669%3%92.3+6-1222722%30%28%3%50%.410+0.7

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

sweeper
4-seam
curveball

Movement

sweeper: -1 IVB, +11 HB4-seam: +14 IVB, -11 HBcurveball: -14 IVB, +11 HBsinker: +9 IVB, -16 HBcutter: +6 IVB, -1 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Lay off the sweeper below the zone: 42% whiffs, only 42% of them are strikes.
  • Two strikes: expect the sweeper (36% of 2-strike pitches vs 28% overall).
  • Hunt the sinker early: 22% of his first pitches, only 14% whiffs, 66% in-zone on 0-0.

Sean Newcomb (LHP)

1361 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (137 BF) / 24% vs RHB (208 BF)

Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (54 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.

54 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exits at 34 pitches (IQR 29–38, 5 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5323%
BB%608%
CSW%7529%
Whiff%3421%
Chase%1727%
xwOBA vs58.309
Hard-hit%6237%
GB%7647%
1st-pitch strike%3960%
recent starts, K (n=5)
406/20
DET
208/14
DET
008/19
CHC
308/23
NYM
409/12
STL

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam52132%42%94.8+14+11226225%31%30%43%53%.277-2.3
slurve42631%32%82.8-5-18285329%35%26%31%37%.270-1.0
sinker28836%13%93.5+4+1722617%24%25%13%54%.398+0.1
curveball510%6%80.8-14-13294019%20%21%8%42%.116-3.6
changeup420%5%86.8+2+1314935%7%30%3%·.364·

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
slurve
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, +11 HBslurve: -5 IVB, -18 HBsinker: +4 IVB, +17 HBcurveball: -14 IVB, -13 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, +13 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians

  • Slurve/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Bailey (38%), Lowe (36%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Adell (48%), Rocchio (37%).
  • Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 13% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Gavin Williams

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)413.35614%21%87%35%64%5%≈ n183
2Kyle Teel (L)75.33736%34%67%51%50%11%≈ n46
3Miguel Vargas (R)460.36319%21%82%40%68%11%≈ n211
4Munetaka Murakami (L)349.35134%23%60%55%57%14%≈ n226
5Andrew Benintendi (L)395.31922%33%75%47%53%11%≈ n168
6Tristan Peters (L)399.32118%33%80%36%59%12%≈ n179
7Colson Montgomery (L)416.29837%33%65%44%51%12%≈ n247
8Chase Meidroth (R)435.28324%28%81%32%61%9%≈ n202
9Braden Montgomery (S)235.35516%25%75%42%53%8%≈ n223

Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Steven Kwan (L)1804%18%20%.31720%91%9% n18070%4%≈ n200
2José Ramírez (S)1409%12%16%.38130%89%19% n14065%9%≈ n177
3Chase DeLauter (L)16114%27%19%.29725%82%32% n16169%11%≈ n133
4Jo Adell (R)16719%33%48%.39537%71%37% n16762%12%≈ n247
5Travis Bazzana (L)14216%31%·.26624%78%31% n14256%10%≈ n158
6Angel Martínez (S)13112%20%18%.34939%84%34% n13165%11%≈ n164
7Nathaniel Lowe (L)4420%36%·.25638%72%·63%10%≈ n183
8Patrick Bailey (S)5420%38%·.28826%71%·61%12%≈ n115
9Brayan Rocchio (S)17915%27%37%.29034%78%33% n17962%9%≈ n173

Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Steven Kwan (L)

P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 4%

FB4%
BRK18%
OFF20%

vs LHP 0.317 xwOBA, K 13% (180 PA)

2

José Ramírez (S)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB9%
BRK12%
OFF16%

vs LHP 0.381 xwOBA, K 7% (140 PA)

3

Chase DeLauter (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB14%
BRK27%
OFF19%

vs LHP 0.297 xwOBA, K 20% (161 PA)

4

Jo Adell (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB19%
BRK33%
OFF48%

vs LHP 0.395 xwOBA, K 23% (167 PA)

5

Travis Bazzana (L)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB16%
BRK31%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.266 xwOBA, K 25% (142 PA)

6

Angel Martínez (S)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB12%
BRK20%
OFF18%

vs LHP 0.349 xwOBA, K 18% (131 PA)

7

Nathaniel Lowe (L)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB20%
BRK36%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.256 xwOBA, K 23% (44 PA)

8

Patrick Bailey (S)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB20%
BRK38%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.288 xwOBA, K 30% (54 PA)

9

Brayan Rocchio (S)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB15%
BRK27%
OFF37%

vs LHP 0.290 xwOBA, K 16% (179 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Gavin Williams

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.401 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.274 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 5% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (15 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and away on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +7 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (35 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.529 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 23% of the time there, against 14% for a typical hitter — +9 points. (18 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Tristan Peters

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam up and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 18% of the time there, against 14% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (21 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.372 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.318 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (97 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 7 lifetime. At 7 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Chase Meidroth

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (24 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Braden Montgomery

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.476 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 48-for-59 against him (19% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Steven Kwan (L)27.0 ft/s4.8% (26/547)holds+7 LF
2José Ramírez (S)27.6 ft/s15.5% (63/393)runner+5 3B
3Chase DeLauter (L)26.7 ft/s4.4% (9/208)holds·
4Jo Adell (R)28.1 ft/s2.5% (8/348)holds-4 RF
5Travis Bazzana (L)28.4 ft/s8.0% (15/180)occasional-5 2B
6Angel Martínez (S)27.7 ft/s7.8% (18/225)occasional+1 LF
7Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.6 ft/s0.6% (1/319)holds·
8Patrick Bailey (S)25.3 ft/s2.0% (4/243)holds·
9Brayan Rocchio (S)27.4 ft/s9.0% (27/291)occasional+10 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Patrick Bailey — runners went 91-for-115 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s7.8% (17/211)occasional-5 LF
2Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.7% (2/162)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.7% (19/405)holds-2 3B
4Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s2.0% (3/190)holds+0 1B
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/274)holds·
6Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s4.0% (6/156)holds+9 CF
7Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/234)holds+6 SS
8Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (14/445)holds+4 2B
9Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.6% (1/114)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1109/1209/13 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)49·14today313p/11g22%20%.3034-seam 91 (62%) · changeup 80 (24%)
Grant Taylor (R)·38·1 heavy233p/12g32%26%.2684-seam 98 (32%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Hagen Smith (L)·21·1228p/9g38%34%.2534-seam 94 (52%) · slider 83 (33%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)26··2206p/7g12%19%.367slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (32%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·10·1168p/8g28%25%.275sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (29%)
Bryan Hudson (L)·14·1124p/10g22%21%.2724-seam 91 (67%) · sweeper 79 (33%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···1889p/6g21%24%.295sinker 96 (54%) · changeup 91 (36%)
Tyler Davis (R)···576p/5g21%21%.2944-seam 96 (64%) · slider 89 (29%)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1109/1209/13 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Matt Festa (R)··21today224p/12g25%24%.2964-seam 93 (52%) · sweeper 84 (43%)
Craig Yoho (R)·20·1189p/11g26%27%.307changeup 79 (65%) · cutter 91 (14%)
Tim Herrin (L)16··2176p/12g22%30%.302curveball 80 (31%) · sinker 93 (25%)
Cade Smith (R)9··2173p/11g35%31%.2724-seam 98 (73%) · splitter 88 (22%)
Hunter Gaddis (R)17·8today171p/14g22%28%.300slider 89 (63%) · changeup 80 (19%)
Erik Sabrowski (L)6·5today133p/11g37%31%.2634-seam 94 (58%) · slider 87 (25%)
Colin Holderman (R)···9122p/7g23%27%.306sinker 96 (54%) · sweeper 83 (34%)
Franco Aleman (R)·33·1107p/4g27%25%.3244-seam 96 (62%) · slider 86 (36%)